SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

tals. 17 The importance of these preferences varies
based on income level, as disparities in public
services matter more to poorer populations. 18
Many rural and remote areas face escalating
environmental pressures, such as from degraded
land and deforestation, as well as threats from
the increased frequency and severity of extreme
weather events that impact rural lives and
livelihoods. Droughts and floods have caused
people to abandon their rural communities for
cities—often permanently and not by choice.
Migration in response to environmental
factors is not a new phenomenon, as people
throughout history have moved based on seasonal
weather changes or in response to extreme
weather events. But the intensity of environmental
change in recent years is contributing
to a growing number of ‘climate migrants’. The
2010 floods in Pakistan, for instance, affected up
to 20 million people, and after six months, the
majority had not recovered their prior standard
of living, returned home or regained access to
services. Rural people were more commonly
impacted, slower to recover and more likely
to be out of their homes for a longer period. 19
Non-economic social, cultural and political
reasons can also push rural-urban migration. 20
Cities are seen as places with more social and
political freedoms than traditional rural communities.
This can be especially true for people
experiencing discrimination. 21 In some cases, the
attraction is simply the excitement of modernity
and the prospect of life in a dynamic metropolis.
22 Changing cultural norms are reflected in
the perception of agricultural work as a lower
status form of employment. All of these drivers
appeal particularly to younger people, and
help contribute to their predominance among
rural-urban migrants.
Cities can be especially attractive to women,
who might have more limited opportunities in
traditional rural areas. The opportunity to challenge
existing social relations and norms, escape
social constraints of the local community, and
exercise new freedoms related to social interaction
and political participation can be enticing
reasons to migrate. A large share of rural-urban
migrants have been women in some Asia-Pacific
countries, 23 more commonly in South-east Asia,
especially Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam,
than in South Asia. 24
KEEPING UP WITH AN
URBAN BOOM: POTENTIALS
AND PITFALLS
Urbanization has long been linked with higher
living standards. Most of the world’s richest
countries are also the most urban (Figure 5.9). 25
In Asia-Pacific, excluding the fully urban islands
of Hong Kong, China (SAR); Macao, China
(SAR) and Singapore, the richest four countries—Australia,
Japan, New Zealand and the
Republic of Korea—have more than 80 percent
of their populations living in cities. Most of the
poorer countries are still predominantly rural,
including Afghanistan, Cambodia, Nepal and
Papua New Guinea.
A similar relationship holds for urbanization
and human development (Figure 5.10), where
urbanized countries have the highest Human
Development Index scores, while the least urban
have among the lowest. Cities concentrate industries
and highly skilled workers, generating jobs,
increasing levels of technology, and improving
skills development and education. Through
economies of scale, they can provide social
services and infrastructure at costs that can be
up to 30 percent to 50 percent cheaper than in
sparsely populated rural areas. 26 People in cities
typically end up healthier, better educated and
wealthier than their rural counterparts.
In most countries, urban areas are the main
source of economic activity, usually exceeding
their share of the national population. 27 Opportunities
for innovation and the concentration of
economic activity influence the birth of new
industries, and the growth and transformation
of existing ones. Transportation costs are lower,
with large urban areas typically well connected
to markets. Many are magnets for a disproportionate
share of foreign direct investment.
The world’s cities in aggregate now account
for 80 percent of global GDP. 28 Large cities in
China, with more than 1 million people in each,
generate 56 percent of total national GDP, a
contribution expected to reach 75 percent by
2030. 29 But how much individual cities produce
varies, based on factors such as location and
the quality of city governance. For those in the
midst of demographic transition, it also depends
Countries that
are more urban are
also richer
161