SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Recommendations

Info

160 Social, cultural and economic incentives drive migration to urban areas 1995 to 2010. In the region’s middle-income countries, the share of the population above age 60 is growing in both rural and urban areas. In Thailand, for example, it increased from 9 percent to 12 percent in urban areas and from 10 percent to 13 percent in rural areas between 2000 and 2010. While there is not yet a significant difference between rural and urban areas in middle-income countries, rural populations are slightly older. Asia-Pacific’s lower-income countries are in general still the youngest overall. In recent years, growth in the shares of urban working-age people have been most pronounced in lower-income countries. In Nepal, for example, the share increased from 59 percent to 65 percent from 1996 to 2010, and in Cambodia it went from 58 percent to 70 percent. 13 In both countries, shares of working-age people in rural areas also went up, but more slowly and from a lower level. In 2010, the working-age population accounted for 55 percent of people in rural Nepal and 61 percent in rural Cambodia. Middle-income countries are also experiencing a shift to higher shares of working-age people in cities. In Indonesia, for example, the share rose from 63 percent to 66 percent from 1995 to 2010, while the rural share went from 57 percent to 61 percent. Many countries have sizable urban young populations. People below age 14 make up 30 percent or more of urban residents in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Pakistan, Solomon Islands and Timor-Leste. Their share is more than 20 percent in most countries with data available, with the exception of China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. MAKING <strong>THE</strong> CHOICE TO MIGRATE The decision to migrate from a rural community to a city is a complex one, 14 driven by a mix of economic, social and political factors. Across Asia-Pacific, people move in search of better education, work and services, to escape climate risks and environmental damages, and to discover new social, political or cultural opportunities. Conditions in both rural and urban areas influence the reason to move. Many rural areas are characterized by poor education, declining FIGURE 5.8: The urban-rural gap in services such as electricity, particularly in less developed countries, can be wide Note: Data are for 2012. Source: Based on World Bank 2015a. agricultural productivity, low incomes from farming and few opportunities for off-farm rural employment. A pool of surplus labourers has been left in search of new options, with urban centres seen by many as offering more and better jobs, across a range of occupations, and for higher wages. Some urban areas are home to labour-intensive manufacturing and export-oriented industries that have been significant employers of migrant labour, as in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. 15 Remittances from migrant labour now comprise a large share of rural household income in many Asia-Pacific countries. 16 Big gaps in basic services also send rural people to cities (Figure 5.8). In Cambodia, 90 percent of urban residents have consistent access to electricity; less than 20 percent of rural dwellers do. In Nepal, migrants often choose destinations based on access to schools and hospi-
tals. 17 The importance of these preferences varies based on income level, as disparities in public services matter more to poorer populations. 18 Many rural and remote areas face escalating environmental pressures, such as from degraded land and deforestation, as well as threats from the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events that impact rural lives and livelihoods. Droughts and floods have caused people to abandon their rural communities for cities—often permanently and not by choice. Migration in response to environmental factors is not a new phenomenon, as people throughout history have moved based on seasonal weather changes or in response to extreme weather events. But the intensity of environmental change in recent years is contributing to a growing number of ‘climate migrants’. The 2010 floods in Pakistan, for instance, affected up to 20 million people, and after six months, the majority had not recovered their prior standard of living, returned home or regained access to services. Rural people were more commonly impacted, slower to recover and more likely to be out of their homes for a longer period. 19 Non-economic social, cultural and political reasons can also push rural-urban migration. 20 Cities are seen as places with more social and political freedoms than traditional rural communities. This can be especially true for people experiencing discrimination. 21 In some cases, the attraction is simply the excitement of modernity and the prospect of life in a dynamic metropolis. 22 Changing cultural norms are reflected in the perception of agricultural work as a lower status form of employment. All of these drivers appeal particularly to younger people, and help contribute to their predominance among rural-urban migrants. Cities can be especially attractive to women, who might have more limited opportunities in traditional rural areas. The opportunity to challenge existing social relations and norms, escape social constraints of the local community, and exercise new freedoms related to social interaction and political participation can be enticing reasons to migrate. A large share of rural-urban migrants have been women in some Asia-Pacific countries, 23 more commonly in South-east Asia, especially Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam, than in South Asia. 24 KEEPING UP WITH AN URBAN BOOM: POTENTIALS AND PITFALLS Urbanization has long been linked with higher living standards. Most of the world’s richest countries are also the most urban (Figure 5.9). 25 In Asia-Pacific, excluding the fully urban islands of Hong Kong, China (SAR); Macao, China (SAR) and Singapore, the richest four countries—Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea—have more than 80 percent of their populations living in cities. Most of the poorer countries are still predominantly rural, including Afghanistan, Cambodia, Nepal and Papua New Guinea. A similar relationship holds for urbanization and human development (Figure 5.10), where urbanized countries have the highest Human Development Index scores, while the least urban have among the lowest. Cities concentrate industries and highly skilled workers, generating jobs, increasing levels of technology, and improving skills development and education. Through economies of scale, they can provide social services and infrastructure at costs that can be up to 30 percent to 50 percent cheaper than in sparsely populated rural areas. 26 People in cities typically end up healthier, better educated and wealthier than their rural counterparts. In most countries, urban areas are the main source of economic activity, usually exceeding their share of the national population. 27 Opportunities for innovation and the concentration of economic activity influence the birth of new industries, and the growth and transformation of existing ones. Transportation costs are lower, with large urban areas typically well connected to markets. Many are magnets for a disproportionate share of foreign direct investment. The world’s cities in aggregate now account for 80 percent of global GDP. 28 Large cities in China, with more than 1 million people in each, generate 56 percent of total national GDP, a contribution expected to reach 75 percent by 2030. 29 But how much individual cities produce varies, based on factors such as location and the quality of city governance. For those in the midst of demographic transition, it also depends Countries that are more urban are also richer 161
Page 1 and 2:
ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
Page 3 and 4:
ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
Page 5 and 6:
FOREWORD We live in times of great
Page 7 and 8:
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Asia-Pacific H
Page 9 and 10:
Table of Contents Foreword iii Pref
Page 11 and 12:
1.15 Population age-composition is
Page 13 and 14:
Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank
Page 15 and 16:
Overview SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CH
Page 17 and 18:
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC:
Page 19 and 20:
FIGURE 2: Wealthier countries tend
Page 21 and 22:
a strong emphasis on protecting wor
Page 23 and 24:
could provide job matching assistan
Page 25 and 26:
Asia-Pacific leave the workforce at
Page 27 and 28:
WHAT’S AHEAD IN THIS REPORT This
Page 29:
Chapter 1 HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
Page 32 and 33:
sustainable, reaching everyone whil
Page 34 and 35:
FIGURE 1.1: The Human Development I
Page 36 and 37:
TABLE 1.1: Asia-Pacific still has l
Page 38 and 39:
married couples to have children, a
Page 40 and 41:
FIGURE 1.5: Population pyramids in
Page 42 and 43:
FIGURE 1.8: The median age is high
Page 44 and 45:
FIGURE 1.10: Disparities in fertili
Page 46 and 47:
Improved overall human development
Page 48 and 49:
TABLE 1.5: Countries in Asia-Pacifi
Page 50 and 51:
“When relatively large generation
Page 52 and 53:
38 Having fewer dependents on worki
Page 54 and 55:
40 In developed Asia- Pacific, the
Page 56 and 57:
TABLE 1.6: Demographic dividends fl
Page 58 and 59:
44
Page 61 and 62:
2. MORE PEOPLE AT WORK: THE FOUNDAT
Page 63 and 64:
encouraged labour-intensive industr
Page 65 and 66:
FIGURE 2.3: Peaks within subregions
Page 67 and 68:
A DEMOGRAPHIC RETURN FOR HUMAN DEVE
Page 69 and 70:
BOX 2.1: Women bear a larger burden
Page 71 and 72:
FIGURE 2.8: Growth in labour produc
Page 73 and 74:
WHAT’S BEEN LEARNED IN CHINA, JAP
Page 75 and 76:
FIGURE 2.13: Japan is past its work
Page 77 and 78:
FIGURE 2.15: Thailand still has tim
Page 79 and 80:
make this a key aim of national dev
Page 81 and 82:
investment climate, as well as enco
Page 83 and 84:
TABLE 2.4: Shares of workers in the
Page 85 and 86:
Even before leaving home, migrant w
Page 87 and 88:
Promote health and safety at work:
Page 89 and 90:
BOX 2.8: Malaysia transforms an ind
Page 91 and 92:
of resilient infrastructure are joi
Page 93:
Chapter 3 NURTURING CHILDREN, UNLOC
Page 96 and 97:
Asia-Pacific is home to 1.7 billion
Page 98 and 99:
Commendable progress in education m
Page 100 and 101:
Quality primary education mitigates
Page 102 and 103:
In most Asia-Pacific countries, sec
Page 104 and 105:
Strong tertiary education is a buil
Page 106 and 107:
FIGURE 3.3: Access to tertiary educ
Page 108 and 109:
94 TABLE 3.9: Youth illiteracy has
Page 110 and 111:
TABLE 3.11: Child mortality rates b
Page 112 and 113:
BOX 3.7: Malnutrition and disabilit
Page 114 and 115:
Despite social and economic progres
Page 116 and 117:
FIGURE 3.8: The share of youth who
Page 118 and 119:
104 Young migrants are highly vulne
Page 120 and 121:
as an important challenge. But they
Page 122 and 123:
TABLE 3.15: Some countries with lar
Page 124 and 125: Immunization saves children’s liv
Page 126 and 127: BOX 3.10: Germany’s vocational tr
Page 128 and 129: BOX 3.12: Partnering with youth in
Page 130 and 131: 116
Page 133 and 134: 4. AGEING SOCIETIES: NEW OPPORTUNIT
Page 135 and 136: FIGURE 4.1: Asia-Pacific is one of
Page 137 and 138: TABLE 4.1: East Asia is the oldest
Page 139 and 140: BOX 4.2: Responses to poverty among
Page 141 and 142: BOX 4.3: A plan of action for older
Page 143 and 144: FIGURE 4.9: Per capita health-care
Page 145 and 146: BOX 4.5: China moves towards univer
Page 147 and 148: TABLE 4.3: Social pensions are an i
Page 149 and 150: FIGURE 4.12: Pension replacement ra
Page 151 and 152: BOX 4.7: Increasing links between p
Page 153 and 154: cupy space in some public buildings
Page 155 and 156: ment bodies, encourage regular inte
Page 157 and 158: BOX 4.9: Ageing countries begin enc
Page 159 and 160: help coordinate the work of other g
Page 161 and 162: for older people. Many advanced cou
Page 163 and 164: action. Free public transport, and
Page 165: Chapter 5 TAPPING THE HUMAN DYNAMIS
Page 168 and 169: In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific
Page 170 and 171: FIGURE 5.3: Even countries with few
Page 172 and 173: FIGURE 5.6: Most people will contin
Page 176 and 177: The benefits of urbanization have n
Page 178 and 179: BOX 5.2: Pioneering urban poverty r
Page 180 and 181: vehicles on the road. Beijing issue
Page 182 and 183: Municipal governments in Asia-Pacif
Page 184 and 185: TABLE 5.4: Revenue mobilization opt
Page 186 and 187: 172 City governments need to have t
Page 188 and 189: Investing in essential infrastructu
Page 190 and 191: 176 in East Asian cities, and occur
Page 192 and 193: BOX 5.9: The Republic of Korea emba
Page 194 and 195: 180
Page 197 and 198: 6. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION: SHAPING TH
Page 199 and 200: Development Report argues, decent w
Page 201 and 202: with ministries overseeing youth, e
Page 203 and 204: This is an urgent priority in a reg
Page 205 and 206: SUSTAINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
Page 207 and 208: plan automatically enrols people in
Page 209 and 210: BOX 6.3: Developing Delhi’s metro
Page 213 and 214: End Notes CHAPTER 1 1. UNFPA 2014b.
Page 215 and 216: 63. WHO 2014b. 64. UNFPA 2012. 65.
Page 217: produces 40 percent of total econom
Page 220 and 221: 206 The Asia Foundation. 2013. “T
Page 222 and 223: 208 CODI (Community Organizations D
Page 224 and 225:
210 Global Migration Group. 2014.
Page 226 and 227:
212 Janwani. 2010. “Annual Report
Page 228 and 229:
214 ———. 2012a. OECD Employme
Page 230 and 231:
216 ———. 2011. “Follow-up t
Page 232 and 233:
218 York. [www.unfpa.org/sites/defa
Page 234 and 235:
———. 2012c. Malaysia Economic
Page 236 and 237:
tables include the Caribbean countr
Page 238 and 239:
224
Page 240 and 241:
TABLE 2: Trends in the Human Develo
Page 242 and 243:
TABLE 4: Gender Inequality Index 22
Page 244 and 245:
TABLE 6: Trends in income poverty,
Page 246 and 247:
TABLE 8: Fertility rate and crude d
Page 248 and 249:
TABLE 10: Trends and share of child
Page 250 and 251:
TABLE 12: Trends and share of young
Page 252 and 253:
TABLE 14: Trends and share of older
Page 254 and 255:
TABLE 16: Education indicators and
Page 256 and 257:
TABLE 17: Health indicators 242
Page 258 and 259:
TABLE 18: Employment and unemployme
Page 260 and 261:
TABLE 19: International trade, fina
Page 263 and 264:
ABOUT ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMEN
show all

SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?