SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

BOX 5.1:
Age distribution in urban and rural areas tracks human development and demographics
Sources: World bank 2015d, UNDP 2014, and UN DESA 2014a.
Changes in shares of different ages in Asia-Pacific
countries have had varying consequences
for urban and rural areas, in many cases aligned
with the stage of development. The experiences of
Indonesia, Nepal and the Republic of Korea over
the last 30 years show this process at work.
The Republic of Korea’s transition to a high-income
developed country is well documented.
Between 1980 and 2013, GDP per capita rose
from $3,926 to $23,893. 12 In 2013, it was classified
as a ‘very high’ human development country
with the world’s 16th highest score on the Human
Development Index. The Republic of Korea has
urbanized and aged quickly since 1980, moving
from 57 percent to 82 percent urban as the median
age rose from 22 to 41.
Development has come relatively quickly to
Indonesia. In 2013, it was a ‘medium’ human
development country. From 1980 to 2013, GDP
per capita tripled from $556 to $1,810, the urban
population grew from 22 percent to 52 percent, and
the median age rose from 19 to 28.
Despite progress, Nepal is one of the region’s remaining
least developed countries. In 2013, it was
classified as a ‘low’ human development country,
GDP per capita was $409, the urban population
share was one of the lowest in Asia-Pacific at 18
percent, and the median age was 23.
The three countries are in different stages of both
development and demographic transition. Ageing
in the Republic of Korea is already well advanced
relative to both Indonesia and Nepal. This is most
evident in rural areas, where the 60-plus population
share was 27 percent in 2010. This process
is largely still on the horizon in both Indonesia and
Nepal. Urban areas in both countries retained
about the same share of 60-plus people over the
last two decades, although the share in Nepal
increased slightly, and rural areas in both are now
slightly older than urban areas.
The dynamic is reversed when it comes to the
working-age population. In the Republic of Korea,
the share in urban areas was nearly 70 percent in
1995 and has remained largely steady since then,
while the share in rural areas declined. The share
of workers increased in all areas in Indonesia and
Nepal, especially in cities.
All three countries are seeing a declining share of
children. In Nepal, fewer children and an influx of
migrant workers to cities has depressed the share
of children in urban areas, although it is still sizable
at 28 percent. Indonesian cities have not changed
as dramatically, but about 28 percent of people in
urban areas are 14 or younger. The share of young
people has dropped most sharply in the Republic
of Korea.
FIGURE 5.B1:
Population distribution in urban areas
FIGURE 5.B2:
Population distribution in rural areas
Sources: World Bank 2015d, UNDP 2014, and UN DESA 2014a.
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