SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

married couples to have children, and providing
tax and other incentives for child development and
well-being.
BANGLADESH AND PAKISTAN:
CONTRASTING EXPERIENCES
Although Bangladesh and Pakistan had a common
population policy and family planning programme
until 1971, they began to follow different paths
after splitting into two nations. Since then, in
Bangladesh, contraceptive prevalence has risen
dramatically and fertility fallen steadily. In Pakistan,
contraceptive availability has increased, but remains
at low levels; fertility has declined somewhat,
but is still high.
One crucial difference between the two countries
is the level of political commitment and involvement
of civil society. Both have been greater in
Bangladesh. Hundreds of non-governmental organizations,
for example, have participated in family
planning activities in conjunction with programmes
aimed at empowering women through education,
employment and income generation.
Source: The Economist 2015, BBC 2014, World Bank 2007, Sen 1994, Bose 1995, Santhya 2003, Rao 2004, World Bank 2015a,
and Prusty 2014. Schoemaker 2005. World Bank 2007. Barnwal 2004. World Bank 2015c. WHO 2003. World Bank 2007.
Age structures
in countries have
changed significantly,
but in different ways:
one-third of countries
are young and onefourth
are ageing
24
surpass China’s by 2022, possibly earlier.
Accompanying declining population growth
rates is Asia-Pacific’s unprecedented demographic
change. Age structures have changed
significantly, but in different ways. Out of 38
countries and territories with age composition
data, 13 are currently experiencing a ‘youth bulge’,
or a rise in the proportion of people aged 15 to
24. Others are witnessing a burgeoning portion
of the working-age population, when the ‘window
of demographic opportunity’ opens wide. 20
Another 11 countries and territories are ageing,
where at least 14 percent of the population is
60 years and above.
A tool to track what is happening in terms
of age composition is the ‘population pyramid’
(Figure 1.4). It shows that despite significant
changes in Asia-Pacific’s population since 1950,
the largest shifts are likely still ahead, between
2015 and 2050. In 1950, a very wide base narrowing
to a pointed tip indicated a youthful
population. By 2015, the percentages of working-age
and elderly people had risen—the largest
group regionally was aged 25 to 29. By 2050,
the proportion of children under age 15 will
be less than half of what it was in 1950, while
the share of people aged 60 and over will be
more than three times what it was then. 21 The
largest proportion of the population will be
concentrated in the working-age middle of the
pyramid, especially in two age groups: 30 to 44
and 55 to 64. Over time, this share will contract,
even as the number of working-age people will
increase slightly.
Age structure varies considerably for other regions.
Sub-Saharan Africa still has a very young
population, and while it will shift towards transition,
it will overall remain youthful by 2050.
Most of Europe’s population is concentrated in
the 30 to 60 age group; by 2050, it will have a
large old-age bulge. North America retains a
relatively young population, with ageing moving
at a much slower pace than in Europe, explained
by factors such as high rates of immigration and
high population growth among immigrants. Latin
America and the Caribbean is still youthful,
but can expect the number of elderly people to
triple by 2050. The working-age population is
projected to start declining after 2015 in Europe,
2045 in Asia-Pacific, and 2050 in Latin America
and the Caribbean. By contrast, it is expected
to increase in sub-Saharan Africa until the end
of the century.
Within Asia-Pacific, all subregions had
young populations in 1950, and all have seen
shares of children below age 15 fall by 2015
(Figure 1.5). By 2050, shares will likely further
decline, alongside an upward swing in the shares
of elderly people. But the region’s vast diversity
is reflected in the different rates at which this is
happening. The most dramatic declines will be
seen in East Asia, where older people will likely
move from being 17 percent of the population
in 2015 to 37 percent in 2050. East Asia’s age
distribution is exceptional, since it is at a more
advanced stage of the demographic change. Its
working-age population is expected to decline
from 2020, a phenomenon not expected in South