SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Improved overall human
development leads to
longer, healthier lives
32
requiring about 40 years. South Asia has not yet
quite reached replacement level; it might arrive
there over about 50 years.
Eight East and South-east Asian countries/
territories/areas where rates are already below
replacement level could see a marginal rise.
Japan’s fertility rate plateaued at 1.26 children
per woman in 2005, but has bounced back
since then, reaching 1.44 in 2015 and projected
to be around 1.70 by 2050. This is consistent
with slowly rising fertility in many European
countries, such as France, Italy, Norway, Sweden
and the United Kingdom. Overall, a rise
in Europe and North America is meeting a
decline in many developing regions, suggesting
emerging convergence between the developed
and developing worlds.
MORTALITY DECLINES MARK
THE START OF CHANGE
Living a long and healthy life is a basic premise
of human development. Lifespan is also an important
determinant of population age structure.
At early stages of demographic change, death
rates fall, particularly among children, a process
that began to accelerate in Asia-Pacific in the
1950s and 1960s. 32 Between 1950 and 2010, a
majority of the increase in survival was brought
about by declines in child mortality. 33
Because death rates are highest among infants,
young children and the elderly, countries
with a large proportion of these groups will have
higher mortality rates than those where most
people are of working age. At present, death
rates in Asia-Pacific are driven by the growing
number of elderly people. In 2010, 14 percent
of deaths were among children and 57 percent
were among older adults. 34
Sixty years ago, global life expectancy was
46 years for men and 48 for women, but has
now reached 68 for men and 72 for women,
and is trending upward. People in developed
countries can now expect to live to 78, a full
decade more than 68 for people in developing
countries. Within Asia-Pacific, only South
Asia is behind the average life expectancy of
developing countries, while both Oceania and
East Asia have reached the high life expectancy
level of Western countries. Since the early 1950s,
life expectancy in East Asia and South Asia has
increased by a stunning 30 years, faster than
in all regions of the world except the Middle
East. As in the rest of the world, women live
longer than men.
There are marked variations across countries
and territories. Life expectancy exceeds 80 years
in Australia; Hong Kong, China (SAR); Japan;
Macao, China (SAR); New Zealand, Republic
of Korea and Singapore. But in 17 Asia-Pacific
countries, it is below the global average of 70
years. 35 By 2030, the region as a whole will likely
reach levels similar to those in advanced Western
countries today. Globally, life expectancy
is expected to climb to 77 years by 2050, with
significant increases in less developed regions,
such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia
(Figure 1.11). By 2050, people in South Asia can
expect to live to the ripe old age of 76. Slower
increases in East Asia and Oceania—to 83 and
82 years, respectively—indicate their higher
starting points and the difficulty of achieving
further rises beyond a certain level.
Changes in the crude death rate—which
indicates how many people die, at any age, in a
given year—also influence a population’s shares
of different age groups. Crude death rates below
10 per 1,000 people are generally considered
low, while those above 20 are high. Since the
FIGURE 1.11:
Globally, life expectancy is climbing
Source: Based on UN DESA 2015a.