SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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vehicles on the road. Beijing issued its red alert, the highest of a four-level alert system, twice in the last five years, leading to a complete halt in traffic movement, industrial work and commuter movement. So far, actions like these have not significantly curtailed pollution, but they have brought some additional benefits such as reducing road congestion and fuel usage, and raising public awareness. Rapid urbanization also spurs greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 5.14)—the world’s cities as a whole emit around two-thirds of the total even as they occupy only 2 percent of total land area. 39 One encouraging dimension is that as cities develop, they can more efficiently control emissions. In some large cities, including Seoul, Tokyo and Sydney, per capita emissions FIGURE 5.16: Per capita emissions in Asia-Pacific developing country cities are higher than national averages 166 Cities tend to have a larger climate footprint FIGURE 5.15: As people move to cities, greenhouse gas emissions rise Source: UN DESA 2015a. Source: World Bank 2015a. are lower than national averages—a trend so far largely taking place in the most developed and advanced cities (Figure 5.16). Elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, Dhaka, Bangkok, Beijing and Shanghai all release emissions at higher rates than the national average. People in cities typically generate more solid waste than those in rural areas, and the largest cities tend to surpass national averages (Figure 5.17), as is the case for Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Ulaanbaatar and Jakarta. With urban expansion, this problem will become even more acute, and cities will need to develop ways to both manage and decrease waste. In the Republic of Korea, the Government’s Extended Producer Responsibility system, for instance, requires manufacturers to recycle a certain percentage of their waste. Since its implementation in 2003, it has saved an estimated $1.6 billion, in addition to providing environmental benefits. While the risk of natural disaster has always been high in Asia-Pacific’s cities, climate change poses ever worsening threats (Box 5.3). Rising sea level threatens cities in low-elevation coastal zones, including Tokyo, Dhaka, Shanghai and Mumbai. Greater water scarcity is likely in the future, as flooding contaminates freshwater supplies. Urban infrastructure is often ill equipped to deal with natural disasters. For
the poor, the risks are even greater, as many are forced to settle in areas with the least protection from flooding and other dangers. With limited savings or coverage by social safety nets, they may be unable to recover from a disaster, which can perpetuate the cycle of poverty and limit human development across generations. In 2011, 70 percent of Asia-Pacific cities with more than 750,000 people were considered at high risk of natural disaster. This translates into 562 million vulnerable people—a number that will undoubtedly grow. Across the region, 73 cities are deemed particularly vulnerable, being at high risk of at least two different natural hazards. 40 These include Tokyo (cyclones and floods), Shanghai (cyclones and floods) and Kolkata (droughts and flood). Manila is one of the most vulnerable cities; already home to 12 million people, it is in danger of being hit by cyclones, earthquakes and floods. FIGURE 5.17: Cities tend to generate more solid waste than rural areas BOX 5.3: Effective planning can reduce urban vulnerabilities Coastal cities and urban areas in Asia-Pacific, especially those with dense populations in slums, are highly vulnerable to natural disasters, with the risks expected to increase dramatically through climate change. In the last few years, urban flooding has affected millions of people in Bangkok (2011), Chennai (2015), Dhaka (2015), Jakarta (2013), Karachi (2009) and Manila (2012). In Dhaka, 30 percent of people live in slums near water edges that make them more vulnerable to coastal flooding. In Jakarta, 40 percent of the land is below sea level, leaving the city highly vulnerable to flash floods during rainy seasons. A number of Asia-Pacific cities are susceptible to earthquakes, particularly where city structures do not comply with adequate building codes, as was observed in the fatal 2015 earthquake in Kathmandu. Better city planning, early warning systems and effective urban governance can help reduce the risks and impacts of natural disasters. Understanding and communicating risk, reducing risk and managing risk are three key elements that countries in the region need to look into as part of sustainable urban development planning. In particular, greater attention need to go towards building resilience and ensuring city development adapts to climate shocks. Many urban areas are highly vulnerable to natural disasters Source: Waste Atlas 2015. DISASTERS IN ASIA-PACIFIC: 2005-2014 1,300+ Events 331,000+ People killed 1.4 billion+ People affected $429 billion Total damage Source: UNDP 2015b, The Guardian 2010. 167
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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
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FOREWORD We live in times of great
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Asia-Pacific H
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Table of Contents Foreword iii Pref
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1.15 Population age-composition is
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Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank
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Overview SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CH
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HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC:
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FIGURE 2: Wealthier countries tend
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a strong emphasis on protecting wor
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could provide job matching assistan
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Asia-Pacific leave the workforce at
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WHAT’S AHEAD IN THIS REPORT This
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Chapter 1 HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
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sustainable, reaching everyone whil
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FIGURE 1.1: The Human Development I
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TABLE 1.1: Asia-Pacific still has l
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married couples to have children, a
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FIGURE 1.5: Population pyramids in
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FIGURE 1.8: The median age is high
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FIGURE 1.10: Disparities in fertili
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Improved overall human development
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TABLE 1.5: Countries in Asia-Pacifi
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“When relatively large generation
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38 Having fewer dependents on worki
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40 In developed Asia- Pacific, the
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TABLE 1.6: Demographic dividends fl
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44
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2. MORE PEOPLE AT WORK: THE FOUNDAT
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encouraged labour-intensive industr
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FIGURE 2.3: Peaks within subregions
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A DEMOGRAPHIC RETURN FOR HUMAN DEVE
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BOX 2.1: Women bear a larger burden
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FIGURE 2.8: Growth in labour produc
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WHAT’S BEEN LEARNED IN CHINA, JAP
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FIGURE 2.13: Japan is past its work
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FIGURE 2.15: Thailand still has tim
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make this a key aim of national dev
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investment climate, as well as enco
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TABLE 2.4: Shares of workers in the
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Even before leaving home, migrant w
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Promote health and safety at work:
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BOX 2.8: Malaysia transforms an ind
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of resilient infrastructure are joi
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Chapter 3 NURTURING CHILDREN, UNLOC
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Asia-Pacific is home to 1.7 billion
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Commendable progress in education m
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Quality primary education mitigates
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In most Asia-Pacific countries, sec
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Strong tertiary education is a buil
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FIGURE 3.3: Access to tertiary educ
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94 TABLE 3.9: Youth illiteracy has
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TABLE 3.11: Child mortality rates b
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BOX 3.7: Malnutrition and disabilit
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Despite social and economic progres
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FIGURE 3.8: The share of youth who
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104 Young migrants are highly vulne
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as an important challenge. But they
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TABLE 3.15: Some countries with lar
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Immunization saves children’s liv
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BOX 3.10: Germany’s vocational tr
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BOX 3.12: Partnering with youth in
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Page 133 and 134: 4. AGEING SOCIETIES: NEW OPPORTUNIT
Page 135 and 136: FIGURE 4.1: Asia-Pacific is one of
Page 137 and 138: TABLE 4.1: East Asia is the oldest
Page 139 and 140: BOX 4.2: Responses to poverty among
Page 141 and 142: BOX 4.3: A plan of action for older
Page 143 and 144: FIGURE 4.9: Per capita health-care
Page 145 and 146: BOX 4.5: China moves towards univer
Page 147 and 148: TABLE 4.3: Social pensions are an i
Page 149 and 150: FIGURE 4.12: Pension replacement ra
Page 151 and 152: BOX 4.7: Increasing links between p
Page 153 and 154: cupy space in some public buildings
Page 155 and 156: ment bodies, encourage regular inte
Page 157 and 158: BOX 4.9: Ageing countries begin enc
Page 159 and 160: help coordinate the work of other g
Page 161 and 162: for older people. Many advanced cou
Page 163 and 164: action. Free public transport, and
Page 165: Chapter 5 TAPPING THE HUMAN DYNAMIS
Page 168 and 169: In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific
Page 170 and 171: FIGURE 5.3: Even countries with few
Page 172 and 173: FIGURE 5.6: Most people will contin
Page 174 and 175: 160 Social, cultural and economic i
Page 176 and 177: The benefits of urbanization have n
Page 178 and 179: BOX 5.2: Pioneering urban poverty r
Page 182 and 183: Municipal governments in Asia-Pacif
Page 184 and 185: TABLE 5.4: Revenue mobilization opt
Page 186 and 187: 172 City governments need to have t
Page 188 and 189: Investing in essential infrastructu
Page 190 and 191: 176 in East Asian cities, and occur
Page 192 and 193: BOX 5.9: The Republic of Korea emba
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Page 197 and 198: 6. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION: SHAPING TH
Page 199 and 200: Development Report argues, decent w
Page 201 and 202: with ministries overseeing youth, e
Page 203 and 204: This is an urgent priority in a reg
Page 205 and 206: SUSTAINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
Page 207 and 208: plan automatically enrols people in
Page 209 and 210: BOX 6.3: Developing Delhi’s metro
Page 213 and 214: End Notes CHAPTER 1 1. UNFPA 2014b.
Page 215 and 216: 63. WHO 2014b. 64. UNFPA 2012. 65.
Page 217: produces 40 percent of total econom
Page 220 and 221: 206 The Asia Foundation. 2013. “T
Page 222 and 223: 208 CODI (Community Organizations D
Page 224 and 225: 210 Global Migration Group. 2014.
Page 226 and 227: 212 Janwani. 2010. “Annual Report
Page 228 and 229: 214 ———. 2012a. OECD Employme
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216 ———. 2011. “Follow-up t
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218 York. [www.unfpa.org/sites/defa
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———. 2012c. Malaysia Economic
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tables include the Caribbean countr
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TABLE 2: Trends in the Human Develo
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TABLE 4: Gender Inequality Index 22
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TABLE 6: Trends in income poverty,
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TABLE 8: Fertility rate and crude d
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TABLE 10: Trends and share of child
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TABLE 12: Trends and share of young
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TABLE 14: Trends and share of older
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TABLE 16: Education indicators and
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TABLE 17: Health indicators 242
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TABLE 18: Employment and unemployme
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TABLE 19: International trade, fina
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ABOUT ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMEN
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