SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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A sound understanding of demographic transition is key 184 FOR ALL COUNTRIES, SOME COMMON PRINCIPLES While national context is the starting point for designing any human development strategy and defining the stage of demographic transition, some broad considerations can help set a framework for diverse policy choices. Integrate demographic changes into national development plans and strategies. Demographics might once have been considered a pursuit mainly for people working on population issues, but today, given the potential power of a demographic dividend, it is understood as relevant to many elements of public policy. To leverage demographic opportunities and accelerate human development, demographic considerations need to be integrated across core national development plans and strategies. They also need to be factored into policies and plans in many other areas, among them economic management, education, health, gender equality, youth, ageing and urbanization. As India has recently done when formulating its 12th Five Year Plan(2012–2017), countries can use emerging demographic trends in allocating investments in education, skills training, health, job creation and social protection, among other arenas. This approach would be consistent with the 2030 Agenda, where governments in Asia-Pacific and around the world commit to an integrated approach to development, and to taking population trends and projections into account in national development strategies and policies. 1 A sound understanding of demographic transition should guide this process. In countries with large shares of children and youth and high population growth rates, for example, such as Afghanistan, Kiribati, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Timor-Leste, demographic opportunities may not open fully without adequate investment in child survival and education, and without upholding sexual and reproductive health rights, including to give families the ability to choose the spacing and number of children. Ageing societies such as Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Thailand, where a small workforce supports a burgeoning retired population, may need to adopt policies to encourage population growth. Tax incentives, family friendly employment and subsidized day care are among the measures encouraging young people to have more children. Increase investment in human capabilities. Human capabilities, such as those gained from health and education, are essential at all stages of demographic transition and human development. They help initiate transition, make the most of the dividend, and ensure that momentum is maintained even as societies age. Strategies focused on human capabilities should take a comprehensive vantage point, recognizing that capabilities can and should be cultivated throughout the life cycle. Different priorities in various phases of demographic transition may be informed by rising and falling population shares, and principles of generational balance and fairness. A country with many young children, for instance, might earmark a greater portion of resources for early childhood development and primary schools. On the other hand, a country with a large share of youth might focus on tertiary education and decent employment opportunities. An ageing society might provide special education and training on emerging technologies for older people, while scaling up pension benefits. The overarching aim should be to work, over time, towards the universality of services essential for building and sustaining human capabilities, in line with the core Agenda 2030 principle of leaving no one behind. Manage macroeconomics well and deliver decent jobs. Sound macroeconomic management is fundamental for countries at all stages of demographic transition and development. Alongside overall goals for growth and stability, policy choices need to be made in line with potential demographic benefits and inclusive human development. Of particular importance is the intersection with policies related to labour and livelihoods, as these are the main conduits for most people to translate capabilities and opportunities into higher levels of well-being that, individually and collectively, offer social and economic returns. As the 2015 global Human
Development Report argues, decent work is essential for youth to get a productive start in their lives, to make the best use of a large workforce and to help meet the needs of the elderly. There are multiple avenues to link economic objectives with the generation of enough decent jobs. These might include fostering employment-intensive sectors, particularly, in the short term, those best equipped to absorb the current workforce. Private sector development is critical, and in many countries rests on greater ease of doing business and sound property rights regimes, with special emphasis on small and medium enterprises that typically deliver most employment. An inclusive and deeper financial sector, which effectively mobilizes savings, channels them into productive investment, and fosters entrepreneurship, innovation and productivity is another priority. Unleash the potential and power of women. The region’s record on gender equality is still poor, despite advances in some countries. Among world regions, the highest pay gaps are in South Asia, where women earned a full third less than men from 2008 to 2014. 2 This is a loss in terms of meeting internationally agreed human rights standards. It is also a serious impediment to making the most of demographic transition and advancing human development. Gender equality should be understood as an immediate policy priority of central importance not just for women, but for societies and economies as a whole, since women are key to increasing labour force participation and employment rates as well as productivity. Countries need to review the variety of barriers to women, even in highly developed countries. These may include laws that require women to retire at earlier ages than men, despite longer lifespans. 3 They might involve social norms and practices that tolerate gender-based violence, even if it is against the law. Most countries in the region still have far to go in integrating women fully into political and economic decision-making. The continuing gap reduces the likelihood that policies and plans will fully support women to realize their rights, cultivate capabilities and make powerful contributions to development. All countries need to work to achieve the target in the Sustainable Development Goals on ensuring women’s full participation and equal opportunities for leadership in all levels of economic, political and public decision-making. 4 Deepen regional integration. Considerable diversity in demographic patterns across Asia-Pacific countries is a rationale for improved regional integration. Current forms of cooperation focus mainly on trade among countries. But taking demographic considerations on board recognizes that many relevant issues cross national borders. Demographic differences among sub-regions could be harnessed to enhance financial and labour integration, and increase prospects for all countries in the region to capture demographic dividends. One priority issue might be migration, since countries at different stages of transition have different workforce profiles. Ageing societies may struggle to find workers, while those in the earliest stages of transition may face a surplus. Cooperation might prove beneficial in easing imbalances and developing organized strategies for migration that are beneficial to migrants as well as sending and receiving countries. Freer movement for work would include more flexible visa regimes and should entail strong protections for migrants’ safety and rights. Another priority might be financial integration. East Asian countries, where high savings have been made possible in part by favourable demographic in the last few decades, are looking for opportunities to invest. South Asian countries, with a large share of working-age people, might need to attract increased capital inflows because of their relatively large labour pools and potential for productivity growth. Cross-border cooperation will be crucial as well in filling deficits in infrastructure. Among cities, it could help define and coordinate comparative advantages in order to reduce unsustainable competition for resources and foreign direct investment, among other concerns. Since all countries will pass through demographic transition, there may also be scope to cooperate in learning from each other, across countries at the same as well as different stages. As transition proceeds quickly, while policy and institutional structures to manage it typically evolve more slowly, countries in the region need Demographic differences among subregions could be harnessed to enhance financial and labour integration 185
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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
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FOREWORD We live in times of great
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Asia-Pacific H
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Table of Contents Foreword iii Pref
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1.15 Population age-composition is
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Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank
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Overview SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CH
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HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC:
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FIGURE 2: Wealthier countries tend
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a strong emphasis on protecting wor
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could provide job matching assistan
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Asia-Pacific leave the workforce at
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WHAT’S AHEAD IN THIS REPORT This
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Chapter 1 HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
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sustainable, reaching everyone whil
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FIGURE 1.1: The Human Development I
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TABLE 1.1: Asia-Pacific still has l
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married couples to have children, a
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FIGURE 1.5: Population pyramids in
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FIGURE 1.8: The median age is high
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FIGURE 1.10: Disparities in fertili
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Improved overall human development
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TABLE 1.5: Countries in Asia-Pacifi
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“When relatively large generation
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38 Having fewer dependents on worki
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40 In developed Asia- Pacific, the
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TABLE 1.6: Demographic dividends fl
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44
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2. MORE PEOPLE AT WORK: THE FOUNDAT
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encouraged labour-intensive industr
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FIGURE 2.3: Peaks within subregions
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A DEMOGRAPHIC RETURN FOR HUMAN DEVE
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BOX 2.1: Women bear a larger burden
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FIGURE 2.8: Growth in labour produc
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WHAT’S BEEN LEARNED IN CHINA, JAP
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FIGURE 2.13: Japan is past its work
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FIGURE 2.15: Thailand still has tim
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make this a key aim of national dev
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investment climate, as well as enco
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TABLE 2.4: Shares of workers in the
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Even before leaving home, migrant w
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Promote health and safety at work:
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BOX 2.8: Malaysia transforms an ind
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of resilient infrastructure are joi
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Chapter 3 NURTURING CHILDREN, UNLOC
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Asia-Pacific is home to 1.7 billion
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Commendable progress in education m
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Quality primary education mitigates
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In most Asia-Pacific countries, sec
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Strong tertiary education is a buil
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FIGURE 3.3: Access to tertiary educ
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94 TABLE 3.9: Youth illiteracy has
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TABLE 3.11: Child mortality rates b
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BOX 3.7: Malnutrition and disabilit
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Despite social and economic progres
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FIGURE 3.8: The share of youth who
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104 Young migrants are highly vulne
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as an important challenge. But they
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TABLE 3.15: Some countries with lar
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Immunization saves children’s liv
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BOX 3.10: Germany’s vocational tr
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BOX 3.12: Partnering with youth in
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4. AGEING SOCIETIES: NEW OPPORTUNIT
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FIGURE 4.1: Asia-Pacific is one of
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TABLE 4.1: East Asia is the oldest
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BOX 4.2: Responses to poverty among
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BOX 4.3: A plan of action for older
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FIGURE 4.9: Per capita health-care
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BOX 4.5: China moves towards univer
Page 147 and 148: TABLE 4.3: Social pensions are an i
Page 149 and 150: FIGURE 4.12: Pension replacement ra
Page 151 and 152: BOX 4.7: Increasing links between p
Page 153 and 154: cupy space in some public buildings
Page 155 and 156: ment bodies, encourage regular inte
Page 157 and 158: BOX 4.9: Ageing countries begin enc
Page 159 and 160: help coordinate the work of other g
Page 161 and 162: for older people. Many advanced cou
Page 163 and 164: action. Free public transport, and
Page 165: Chapter 5 TAPPING THE HUMAN DYNAMIS
Page 168 and 169: In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific
Page 170 and 171: FIGURE 5.3: Even countries with few
Page 172 and 173: FIGURE 5.6: Most people will contin
Page 174 and 175: 160 Social, cultural and economic i
Page 176 and 177: The benefits of urbanization have n
Page 178 and 179: BOX 5.2: Pioneering urban poverty r
Page 180 and 181: vehicles on the road. Beijing issue
Page 182 and 183: Municipal governments in Asia-Pacif
Page 184 and 185: TABLE 5.4: Revenue mobilization opt
Page 186 and 187: 172 City governments need to have t
Page 188 and 189: Investing in essential infrastructu
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Page 192 and 193: BOX 5.9: The Republic of Korea emba
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Page 197: 6. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION: SHAPING TH
Page 201 and 202: with ministries overseeing youth, e
Page 203 and 204: This is an urgent priority in a reg
Page 205 and 206: SUSTAINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
Page 207 and 208: plan automatically enrols people in
Page 209 and 210: BOX 6.3: Developing Delhi’s metro
Page 213 and 214: End Notes CHAPTER 1 1. UNFPA 2014b.
Page 215 and 216: 63. WHO 2014b. 64. UNFPA 2012. 65.
Page 217: produces 40 percent of total econom
Page 220 and 221: 206 The Asia Foundation. 2013. “T
Page 222 and 223: 208 CODI (Community Organizations D
Page 224 and 225: 210 Global Migration Group. 2014.
Page 226 and 227: 212 Janwani. 2010. “Annual Report
Page 228 and 229: 214 ———. 2012a. OECD Employme
Page 230 and 231: 216 ———. 2011. “Follow-up t
Page 232 and 233: 218 York. [www.unfpa.org/sites/defa
Page 234 and 235: ———. 2012c. Malaysia Economic
Page 236 and 237: tables include the Caribbean countr
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Page 240 and 241: TABLE 2: Trends in the Human Develo
Page 242 and 243: TABLE 4: Gender Inequality Index 22
Page 244 and 245: TABLE 6: Trends in income poverty,
Page 246 and 247: TABLE 8: Fertility rate and crude d
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TABLE 10: Trends and share of child
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TABLE 12: Trends and share of young
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TABLE 14: Trends and share of older
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TABLE 16: Education indicators and
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TABLE 17: Health indicators 242
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TABLE 18: Employment and unemployme
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TABLE 19: International trade, fina
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ABOUT ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMEN
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SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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