Future of an Ageing Population

Population ageing refers to a change in the age structure of the UK population,
in which the proportion of older people is increasing. This is driven by two
trends: historically low fertility rates and falling mortality rates. Low fertility
rates mean that fewer young people are entering the population. Falling
mortality rates, particularly among the over 65s, are leading to the increase in
the number of older people.
1.2 Understanding the demographic changes
The two drivers of the ageing population – falling fertility and mortality rates –
are both long-term trends. The UK has experienced almost 40 years of fertility
rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman 4 . In 2014, the
total fertility rate (TFR) in England and Wales was 1.83 children per woman,
compared to a peak of 2.93 in 1964 (see Figure 1.2). The long-term decline in
mortality rates has been particularly strong among the oldest age groups. For
example, the mortality rate of women in their early 80s declined from about
120 per thousand population in the 1950s to 75 by the 1990s, and fell from
around 160 to 120 5 per thousand men in the same period.
3.5
3.0
Live births per woman
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
2008
2014
Year
Figure 1.2: Total fertility in England and Wales, 1960-2014 6 .
P19