Future of an Ageing Population

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Future of an Ageing Population | Executive summary Executive Summary The UK population is ageing. In mid-2014, the average age exceeded 40 for the first time. By 2040, nearly one in seven people is projected to be aged over 75. These trends, partially mitigated by migration rates, will have a major effect on the UK. The Office for Budget Responsibility projects total public spending excluding interest payments to increase from 33.6% to 37.8% of GDP between 2019/20 and 2064/65 – equivalent to £79 billion in today’s terms – due mainly to the ageing population. This demographic change will affect the whole country. To grow old in a society where more people are young is fundamentally different to doing so in a society where more people are in older age groups. It has implications for how each of us approaches and plans for our own old age, and for the old age of our family members. For government, it will shape how public services are planned and influence every government department. Perhaps most importantly, it will require a co-ordinated response between departments that reflects the robust evidence for the inter-connectedness of policies affected by ageing. Without significant improvements in health, UK population ageing will increase the amount of ill-health and disability. Chronic conditions, multi-morbidities, and cognitive impairments will become more common. At the same time families will face increasing pressure to balance care with other responsibilities, particularly work. This is likely to mean that demand and supply of care will diverge, as the UK has more people needing physical and financial support, at a time when there are fewer people able to fund public services and provide care. Successfully meeting this demand will need adaptations to health and care systems and support for unpaid carers. As the population ages, so will the UK workforce. The productivity and economic success of the UK will be increasingly tied to that of older workers. Enabling people to work for longer will help society to support growing numbers of dependents, while providing individuals with the financial and mental resources needed for increasingly long retirements. Supporting fuller and longer working lives, removing barriers to remaining in work, and enabling workers to adapt to new technologies and other fundamental changes to the world of work will be critical to the nation’s economic wellbeing. P6
Learning and training will become of even greater importance as the population ages. Learning throughout our lifetimes will help us to participate for longer in the labour market, build personal and mental resilience and bring health and wellbeing benefits. Lifelong learning brings benefits to individuals, employers and wider society that will be increasingly valuable in an ageing population. Despite this, participation in adult education and training has fallen in recent years. Suitable housing can significantly improve life in older age, while unsuitable housing can be the source of multiple problems and costs. Poor quality housing costs the NHS an estimated £2.5 billion per year. Homes will be increasingly used as places of work and care. Appropriately designed housing, that can adapt to people’s changing needs as they age, has a number of benefits. These benefits include reducing demand on health and care services, and enabling individuals to work more flexibly in later life. The ageing population presents opportunities to individuals and society. However, as with any major demographic change, it also presents challenges and ignoring these could undermine the potential benefits of living longer. This report brings together evidence about today’s older population, with future trends and projections, to identify the most critical implications for government policy and the socio-economic resilience of the UK. P7
Page 1 and 2: Future of an Ageing Population P1
Page 3 and 4: Foreword People in the UK are livin
Page 5: The Government Office for Science w
Page 9 and 10: across different socio-economic gro
Page 11 and 12: Priorities include: • Adapting he
Page 13 and 14: Box A: Perceptions of youth and old
Page 15 and 16: P15
Page 17 and 18: • Keating, N , Kwan, D., Hillcoat
Page 19 and 20: Population ageing refers to a chang
Page 21 and 22: 70 95 Life expectancy at birth (yea
Page 23 and 24: Increased life expectancy is the re
Page 25 and 26: Work Population ageing, combined wi
Page 27 and 28: Box 1.3: Pension landscape People w
Page 29 and 30: 2.1 Longer working lives Working la
Page 31 and 32: 100 80 Employment rate (%) 60 40 20
Page 33 and 34: However, there is evidence that the
Page 35 and 36: Country Turkey Denmark Bulgaria Cyp
Page 37 and 38: 50 Percentage of people (%) 40 30 2
Page 39 and 40: Box 2.1: Special circumstances rela
Page 41 and 42: and learning faced by older people.
Page 43 and 44: 3.1 Lifelong learning to enhance me
Page 45 and 46: and numerical skills. People withou
Page 47 and 48: smaller proportion of men of any ag
Page 49 and 50: Policy Implication Participation in
Page 51 and 52: 4.1 Changing demand for housing In
Page 53 and 54: 30 Number of homes built (thousands
Page 55 and 56: younger people who commit to provid
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4.3 The importance of the wider nei
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International Case Study: De Hogewe
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5 Number of people (millions) 4 3 2
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Policy Implication Many of today’
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5.1 Family trends occurring in para
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100 90 80 Unweighted data Weighted
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In general, evidence suggests that
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5.4 The impact of ageing and ‘ver
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Age (years) 65+ Care receipt 2007 2
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approach overlooks interdependencie
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6.1 Changing health and care needs
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Social isolation affects 7-17% of o
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transfer of care into the community
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combine health and social care skil
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6.4 Medical and assistive technolog
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can apply for benefits. Application
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7.1 Benefits of connectivity Connec
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Travel habits change over the life
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Policy Implication Different age gr
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100 Proportion of respondents who u
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Percentage of internet non-users (T
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Policy Implication Virtual connecti
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The response to an ageing populatio
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ced impact ess, including rm condit
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Term Accredited training Age struct
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Morbidity rate Multi-morbidity Non-
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P109
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1 DWP (2011) Predictors of attitude
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36 ONS (2016) Regional labour marke
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71 Eurostat (2014) Table: Individua
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107 Sugiyama, T. and Ward Thompson,
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147 Harper, S. (2016), Population A
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183 O’Reilly, D. et al. (2015) Ca
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219 Burton, E. and Mitchell, L. (20
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Future of an Ageing Population

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