Future of an Ageing Population

Increased life expectancy is the result of many scientific and societal successes.
In the first decade of the 21st century, Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) F at birth
rose more than Life Expectancy (LE). This indicates a reduction of years spent in
ill-health 11,12 . However, increases in HLE measured at 65 and 85 are not keeping
pace with improvements in LE. This suggests that real health improvements
are being experienced by younger people and that people over 65 are spending
more time in ill-health 11 (see Figure 1.6). Therefore, unless this trend can be
reversed, another major challenge for an ageing population is likely to be an
increasing prevalence of the health conditions associated with old age. It is
worth noting that other European countries, such as Belgium and Sweden,
have seen a reduction in years spent with disability (although this could be in
part due to smaller gains in life expectancy in these countries) 11 .
Box 1.2: How are health expectancies calculated?
Health expectancies are calculated in a similar manner to period life
expectancies. There are two measures produced by the ONS – Healthy Life
Expectancy and Disability Free Life Expectancy. The former is calculated
by asking survey respondents to self-rate their health and is a measure of
health-related wellbeing. The latter asks respondents whether they have
a physical or mental health condition or illness which limits normal day
to day activities. These are combined with age-specific mortality rates
to estimate the average number of years spent in good health or free of
limiting illness (disability).
If health expectancy increases faster than life expectancy, this suggests
those additional years are spent in good health. In contrast, where life
expectancy rises faster than health expectancy, this suggests extra years
of life are spent in poor health or states of dependency.
When measured from birth, health expectancies cannot tell us when poor
health is experienced. However, using health expectancies measured at
older ages, and more detailed cohort studies, it is possible to shed light on
when poor health is most often experienced.
F For more information about how health expectancies are calculated, please see Box 1.2.
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