Future of an Ageing Population

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Preface The population of the UK has undergone a fundamental change in its age structure, with many people having fewer children and living longer lives. As a result the average age of the UK population is increasing. This has important implications for the whole of society. Growing up and living in a society where younger people are in a majority is fundamentally different to growing up in a society where the majority of people are in older age groups. Responding to this demographic shift will require us to make adaptations across many aspects of our lives: how we work; how we care for, communicate and interact with each other; the built environment we live and work in; the way we live our lives; how we learn; and how we use technology. We need to understand the nature and implications of this population change in order to adapt successfully. This has been the driving force behind this Foresight project on the Future of an Ageing Population. We have brought together expertise from a wide spectrum of disciplines including demography, economics, design and technology, social and health policy, geography and gerontology. We have gathered the best available evidence to understand what the ageing of the UK population means both now and in the future. We have considered evidence from a wide range of sources: through commissioning 22 peerreviewed evidence reviews; through expert meetings to discuss topics ranging from health and care to housing; and through ten visits to different regions and administrations across the UK to learn directly about local and personal experiences of population ageing. We are indebted to the many experts who have been involved in all aspects of this work. This report brings together the evidence that will help policymakers to develop the policies needed to adapt to the demographic change of the UK. Professor Sarah Harper Sir Mark Walport P4
The Government Office for Science would like to thank the many contributors who generously provided evidence, advice and guidance to the project. We would like to extend particular thanks to the project’s Lead Expert Group: • Professor Sarah Harper (Chair) - University of Oxford • Professor James Banks - University of Manchester and Institute for Fiscal Studies • Professor Paul Boyle CBE - University of Leicester • Professor Tom Kirkwood - Newcastle University and University of Copenhagen • Professor Martin Knapp - London School of Economics and Political Science • Professor Jeremy Myerson – Royal College of Art • Mrs Mary Sinfield OBE - Former Chairman of the New Dynamics of Ageing Programme’s Older People’s Reference Group • Professor Alan Walker CBE - University of Sheffield • Mr Oliver Wells - NIHR Healthcare Technology Co-operative for Devices for Dignity P5
Page 1 and 2: Future of an Ageing Population P1
Page 3: Foreword People in the UK are livin
Page 7 and 8: Learning and training will become o
Page 9 and 10: across different socio-economic gro
Page 11 and 12: Priorities include: • Adapting he
Page 13 and 14: Box A: Perceptions of youth and old
Page 15 and 16: P15
Page 17 and 18: • Keating, N , Kwan, D., Hillcoat
Page 19 and 20: Population ageing refers to a chang
Page 21 and 22: 70 95 Life expectancy at birth (yea
Page 23 and 24: Increased life expectancy is the re
Page 25 and 26: Work Population ageing, combined wi
Page 27 and 28: Box 1.3: Pension landscape People w
Page 29 and 30: 2.1 Longer working lives Working la
Page 31 and 32: 100 80 Employment rate (%) 60 40 20
Page 33 and 34: However, there is evidence that the
Page 35 and 36: Country Turkey Denmark Bulgaria Cyp
Page 37 and 38: 50 Percentage of people (%) 40 30 2
Page 39 and 40: Box 2.1: Special circumstances rela
Page 41 and 42: and learning faced by older people.
Page 43 and 44: 3.1 Lifelong learning to enhance me
Page 45 and 46: and numerical skills. People withou
Page 47 and 48: smaller proportion of men of any ag
Page 49 and 50: Policy Implication Participation in
Page 51 and 52: 4.1 Changing demand for housing In
Page 53 and 54: 30 Number of homes built (thousands
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younger people who commit to provid
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4.3 The importance of the wider nei
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International Case Study: De Hogewe
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5 Number of people (millions) 4 3 2
Page 63 and 64:
Policy Implication Many of today’
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5.1 Family trends occurring in para
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100 90 80 Unweighted data Weighted
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In general, evidence suggests that
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5.4 The impact of ageing and ‘ver
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Age (years) 65+ Care receipt 2007 2
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approach overlooks interdependencie
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6.1 Changing health and care needs
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Social isolation affects 7-17% of o
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transfer of care into the community
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combine health and social care skil
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6.4 Medical and assistive technolog
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can apply for benefits. Application
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7.1 Benefits of connectivity Connec
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Travel habits change over the life
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Policy Implication Different age gr
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100 Proportion of respondents who u
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Percentage of internet non-users (T
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Policy Implication Virtual connecti
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The response to an ageing populatio
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ced impact ess, including rm condit
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Term Accredited training Age struct
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Morbidity rate Multi-morbidity Non-
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P109
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1 DWP (2011) Predictors of attitude
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36 ONS (2016) Regional labour marke
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71 Eurostat (2014) Table: Individua
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107 Sugiyama, T. and Ward Thompson,
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147 Harper, S. (2016), Population A
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183 O’Reilly, D. et al. (2015) Ca
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219 Burton, E. and Mitchell, L. (20
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Future of an Ageing Population

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