Future of an Ageing Population

Future of an Ageing Population | Health and Care Systems
6.2 Future healthcare costs
The increase in demand for health and care services has significant implications
for future public expenditure. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
identifies health and long-term care as two of the “main drivers of the increase
in non-interest spending… due mainly to the ageing population”. They project
expenditure on health to grow from 7.3 to 8.3% of GDP and on long-term care
from 1.1 to 2.2% of GDP (see Figure 6.3).
12
10
Percentage of GDP (%)
8
6
4
2
0
2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2034-35 2044-45 2054-55 2064-65
Year
Expenditure sector:
Health
Long-term care
Figure 6.3: Projected public expenditure on health and long-term care from 2014/15 to 2064/65
as a percentage of UK GDP 18 .
Average life time expenses for social care faced by people aged 65 and over
exceed £30,000 169 . The cost of dementia in the UK was estimated at £26.3
billion in 2013, with 39% due to social care and 44% to unpaid care 159 , and is
projected to rise from 0.6% of GDP in 2002, to 0.82-0.96 % of GDP by 2031 170 .
Dementia patients often have longer hospital stays than other inpatients, and
are less likely to return to their home after a hospital stay 171 . The inevitability
of multi-morbidity with advancing age will compound this, further increasing
health care costs because health care spending increases with each additional
chronic condition a patient has 172 . One recent project aimed at improving
collaboration between primary, community, mental health, and social care
concluded that multi-morbidity was a key driver for social care costs 173 .
Reducing the predicted increases in public and private expenditure on health
and care will require the productivity of the health and care systems to increase
or for demand to be reduced. Both new technologies and the increasing
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