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Future of an Ageing Population

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<strong>Future</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>an</strong> <strong>Ageing</strong> <strong>Population</strong> | Health <strong>an</strong>d Care Systems<br />

older people. Interventions to promote learning through the life course, better<br />

housing conditions <strong>an</strong>d environments that promote active lives are examples.<br />

Physical activity clearly plays a role in disease prevention <strong>an</strong>d positive health<br />

outcomes, but less is known about how to encourage people to be more active.<br />

Current evidence suggests that successful interventions should focus on small<br />

improvements, include several components (e.g. physical activity <strong>an</strong>d diet),<br />

<strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong>fer a wide variety <strong>of</strong> activities to choose from with regular follow ups<br />

over a long period <strong>of</strong> time to ensure activity levels are maintained 177 . Selfm<strong>an</strong>agement<br />

interventions, such as wearable technologies, have a small but<br />

varying effect across a wide r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> outcomes, but little is known about the<br />

mech<strong>an</strong>isms behind this 177 <strong>an</strong>d if interventions in later life are effective across<br />

large population groups.<br />

Policy Implication<br />

Without improvements in healthy life expect<strong>an</strong>cy or in the productivity<br />

<strong>of</strong> the health service, the UK’s health <strong>an</strong>d care costs will increase as the<br />

population ages. Interventions throughout a person’s lifetime, such as<br />

those promoting healthy living <strong>an</strong>d decreasing social isolation, have<br />

signific<strong>an</strong>t potential to affect their health in old age.<br />

6.3 Care in the home <strong>an</strong>d community<br />

The health <strong>an</strong>d care sectors are set to experience a signific<strong>an</strong>t growth in<br />

dem<strong>an</strong>d resulting from increasing prevalence <strong>of</strong> ill health in the population.<br />

Projections suggest <strong>an</strong> increase <strong>of</strong> over 600,000 jobs in caring <strong>an</strong>d personal<br />

services by 2022 178 . However GP recruitment, <strong>an</strong>d that <strong>of</strong> other healthcare<br />

pr<strong>of</strong>essionals, is declining at a time when people increasingly receive treatment<br />

<strong>an</strong>d support at home <strong>an</strong>d in the community 163 . The increasing ratio <strong>of</strong> older<br />

people to those in work may limit the number <strong>of</strong> people available to work in the<br />

care sector <strong>an</strong>d the number <strong>of</strong> people who c<strong>an</strong> fund state care provision, <strong>an</strong>d<br />

the rest <strong>of</strong> the health care system. The future health service will also require<br />

a much wider r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> staff capacities th<strong>an</strong> at present, including people who<br />

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