Future of an Ageing Population

In general, evidence suggests that many of the changes in family structure
observed over recent decades will continue into the future 133 . An important
policy issue is how traditional assumptions of care and support in later life hold
for the growing plurality of family structures. Evidence suggests that, within the
complex family structures which result from marital disruption and remarriage,
lines of responsibilities become blurred or uncertain between generations. US
research, for example, has suggested that parental divorce and step-family
formation has negative effects on the support that adult children provide to
their parents in old age. In addition there is a strong gender dynamic with
adult children having lower contact with divorced fathers and higher contact
with divorced mothers when compared with married parents, so that divorced
fathers (in the US at least) receive the lowest level of personal care from their
children 134 .
There is also limited evidence on the impact of childlessness on care and
support across the life course. A related, unresolved, question is how the future
care needs of older people without children can be met within communities
and society. This question is also important for those people whose children
have care needs themselves, or whose children are unable to offer unpaid
care due to health, wealth, family relationships or distance. Evidence from
the Netherlands suggests that while childless older people have smaller care
networks, they have more disposable income with which to purchase paid
care 135 . Furthermore it may be argued that childless individuals adapt across
the life course and develop social alternatives to children 136 .
Finally, it is unclear over the following decades the extent to which mainstream
changes in British society will also impact upon minority families, and how
this will differ between ethnicities. A key question is whether minority
ethnic families will follow the path of “individualisation” (rising patterns of
cohabitation, divorce, fewer children, lone parenting) that is increasingly
characterising white majority families, with unknown implications for provision
of care and wellbeing in specific ethnic groups.
Policy Implication
In parallel to ageing, the UK population is experiencing a growth in the
plurality of family structures. There is limited evidence on the impact
heterogeneous family types may have on important issues relating to
ageing, especially later life caring responsibilities. Understanding this is a
priority for understanding the resilience of UK care policies.
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