Future of an Ageing Population

6.1 Changing health and care needs
As discussed in Section 1.3, improvements in Healthy Life Expectancy at ages
65 and 85 are not keeping pace with increasing Life Expectancy. Unless this
trend is reversed, an ageing population will mean increased overall demand for
health and care services. The Personal Social Services Research Unit (PSSRU)
projects that users of publicly funded home care services will grow by 86% to
393,300 in 2035 (see Table 6.1).
Direct payment users
(funded by local council)
Number of people (thousands)
2015 2035
Percentage
Growth (%)
45.5 74.4 63
Home care users (publicly funded) 211.3 393.7 86
Home care users (privately funded) 93.9 139.5 49
Care home residents (publicly funded) 172.1 257.1 49
Care home residents (privately funded) 157.1 330.4 110
Table 6.1: Past and projected numbers (and percentage change) of people aged 65+ using social
care, by type of care and funding source in England, 2015 and 2035 154 .
As well as an increase in the amount of ill health, population ageing will mean
a greater prevalence of age-related conditions. The ‘oldest old’, who have
a substantial risk of requiring long-term care, are the fastest growing age
group in the UK 155 . As a result, there has been an increasing prevalence of
age-related conditions, including mental health conditions such as dementia.
Between a quarter and a half of people over 85 are estimated to be frail, which
is associated with disability and crisis admissions to hospitals 156 . Between
2002-03 and 2011-12, the number of disabled older people increased by
400,000, a growth of 8.5% 157 . Although age-specific dementia incidence rates
have decreased since 1991 158 , projections are for a substantial increase in the
overall number of cases from 822,000 to 940,000 by 2021 and more than
1.7million by 2051 159 . Chronic conditions affecting the heart, musculoskeletal
and circulatory systems are also more prevalent in older age.
Within the national trends, there are significant variations in health and
wellbeing in later life by socio-economic position, ethnicity, gender and
region 160 . Those living in the most deprived areas of England have nearly two
more years of ‘not good health’ after 65 than those in the least deprived areas
(see Figure 6.1). Geographical variations in perceptions of good health are
more pronounced in older populations (see Figure 6.2). This suggests that
older people in some parts of the UK are at risk of spending more time in illhealth
than others.
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