Future of an Ageing Population
gs-16-10-future-of-an-ageing-population
gs-16-10-future-of-an-ageing-population
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70<br />
95<br />
Life expect<strong>an</strong>cy at birth (years)<br />
90<br />
85<br />
80<br />
75<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061<br />
Year<br />
Gender:<br />
Men<br />
Women<br />
Figure 1.3: Historic <strong>an</strong>d projected period life expect<strong>an</strong>cy at birth in the UK 1981-2064 7 .<br />
1.3 Implications for society: dependency <strong>an</strong>d healthy life<br />
expect<strong>an</strong>cy<br />
<strong>Population</strong> ageing <strong>an</strong>d increasing life expect<strong>an</strong>cy have a number <strong>of</strong> implications.<br />
One <strong>of</strong> the most import<strong>an</strong>t is that there may be a lower proportion <strong>of</strong><br />
individuals to pay taxes, work <strong>an</strong>d provide care for those who need it. For this<br />
reason, growing old in a society which is itself growing old is fundamentally<br />
different to growing old in a population where most people are young 8 .<br />
The old age support ratio is one way to measure the proportion <strong>of</strong> people that<br />
may be working, paying taxes <strong>an</strong>d providing care in a society. It is calculated<br />
by dividing the number <strong>of</strong> working age people by the number <strong>of</strong> people eligible<br />
for the state pension (see Figure 1.4) D . The old age support ratio sets a baseline<br />
figure for this bal<strong>an</strong>ce which c<strong>an</strong> be altered as working lives are extended.<br />
In 2012, the ratio was 3.21 people <strong>of</strong> working age for every person <strong>of</strong> SPA.<br />
Although pl<strong>an</strong>ned ch<strong>an</strong>ges in SPA E me<strong>an</strong> that the ratio will rise to a projected<br />
3.47 in 2020, by 2041 it will have fallen back to 2.65 workers for every one<br />
person over SPA. This is because, despite increases to SPA, the number <strong>of</strong><br />
D This is the best available method for measuring dependency, but it is not perfect. It assumes that<br />
all people <strong>of</strong> SPA or above will not be working, while all <strong>of</strong> those between 16 <strong>an</strong>d SPA will be in<br />
employment. In the absence <strong>of</strong> a better method, it provides <strong>an</strong> indicative measure <strong>of</strong> those most<br />
likely to be working or in retirement.<br />
E Between 2012 <strong>an</strong>d 2018, SPA will ch<strong>an</strong>ge from 65 years for men <strong>an</strong>d 61 years for women, to 65 years<br />
for both sexes. Then between December 2018 <strong>an</strong>d October 2020, SPA will ch<strong>an</strong>ge from 65 years to<br />
66 years for both men <strong>an</strong>d women, based on the 2011 Pensions Act. Between 2026 <strong>an</strong>d 2028, SPA<br />
will increase to 67 for both sexes <strong>an</strong>d is currently set to increase to 68 between 2044 <strong>an</strong>d 2046.<br />
P21
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