Revista Tinerilor Economiºti (The Young Economists Journal)

Revista Tinerilor Economişti (The Young Economists Journal)
evolution in Romania, between 1990 and 2009: Y= α +β1 X1 +β2 X2 +β3 X3 +ε ,
where Y- employment, expressed by the civil employed population (dependent variable);
X1-final consumption (public and private) in the t year (independent variable); X2- real
investments in the t year; X3- net export (export-import) in the t year; ε – random
variable (residuum); α , β1 , β2 ,β3- multiple regression coefficients.
In order to identify the independent variables (final consumption, real
investments and net export) that best explain the variance of the dependent variable (of
the civil employed population) we applied the Backward procedure, according to which
we start with all variables considered in the model and at every step the weakest predictor
(dependent variable) is eliminated – defined by the least important independent variable,
meaning the variable that produces the smallest reduction of the Fisher’ F statistics [2].
3. Analyses
The level and dynamics of employment, reflected through the civil employed
population, were profoundly marked by the changes that Romania went through in the
last two decades (the period between 1990 and 2009). As it can be noticed from the
analysis of the data in figure no.1 the visible decline of the employed population started
in 1992, once with the more decisive actions of restructuring the Romanian economy.
However, until 1995, the civil employed population was maintained at a value above 10
million people. Starting with 1995, the reduction of the employed population under 10
million people can be noticed, year that records the highest decrease as compared to the
previous year (of 1347 thousand employed people). After 1995, the employed
population continued to decrease until 2000, so between 1995 and 1999 another
decrease of 1073 people was recorded. In 2000, although the employed population
increased as compared to the previous year by 2.5%, this continues the descendent trend
as compared to 1990.
Source: Romanian Statistical Yearbook, NIS, www.insse.ro
Figure no.1 The evolution of the civil employed population, in Romania, 1990-2009
(thousands persons)
In the period of economic growth 2001-2004, the employed population recorded
another reduction of 390.4 thousand employed people. Even if, in the last years of
economic growth (2005-2008), 508.7 thousand new jobs were created, the economic
recession in 2009 caused a reduction of 491 thousand jobs. During the 20 years, the
annual average rhythm of evolution of the civil employed population, calculated based on
the data in figure no.1, between 1990 and 2009, was negative (-1.39%), and the civil
employed population recorded a decrease from 10840 to 8256 thousand persons (of 2584
thousand persons).
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