Revista Tinerilor Economiºti (The Young Economists Journal)

Economic Theories – International Economic Relations
increases. Thus, the highest value of net export, of -153.4 billion lei, was recorded in 2008
(year when the “economic boom” took place in Romania), and the lowest in 1994 (of -14.8
billion lei).
The fact that we import more that we export, and foreign payments and higher
than foreign currency revenue, in other words, we consume more than we produce, led to
a chronic deficit of the commercial balance. The existence of this negative net export is
explained by the existence of a higher domestic demand (consumption + investments)
than the domestic supply (GDP), in other words, in the existence of a state of
disequilibrium called domestic absorption (figure no. 5). Insufficient adaptation of the
national supply to the market’s needs caused the covering of the gap by resorting to
imports, but with negative consequences on the both external and domestic equilibrium.
The statistical analysis carried out based on the data in annexe no. 1, regarding
the net export and employed population, show that, in Romania, between 1990 and
2009, between the two variables there was a direct relationship, but of a very low
intensity, getting a value of +0.318 for the Pearson correlation coefficient. In other
words, the growth of negative net export, which equals higher imports than exports,
constituted one of the causes that led to the decrease of employed population in
Romania. The explanation consists in the existence of a high level of import of goods
and services as compared to export, fact that does not create favourable conditions for
increasing domestic output, on the contrary. In its turn, the reduction of output
(especially the industrial one), in Romania caused lay-offs and consequently the
reduction of the employment.
Therefore, taking some measures of economic policy for stimulating domestic
production of economic goods is required. These goods must be comparable with those
imported as far as the quality-price relationship is concerned. Only in this case the
Romanian consumer will satisfy consumption based on domestically produced products
to the detriment of those produced abroad.
In order to reduce the negative effect of import on labour employment, it is
necessary for domestic producers to adapt their supply to the requirements of
companies in order for the domestic demand of consumer and investment goods to find
correspondence in the domestic supply.
3.4 The simultaneous influence of the components of aggregate demand on
employment
Taking into consideration the data recorded in Romania between 1990 and
2009, we aim to highlight the simultaneous influence of the aggregate demand
components as well as the overall influence of the aggregate demand on employment,
being known that the individual elements of the aggregate demand interact among each
other and all these interact with aggregate supply.
Based on the analysis of the data in the table of multiple correlation (table no.1),
it is noticed that real aggregate demand (made up of domestic demand and external
demand) is significantly influenced by consumption, there being a Pearson correlation
coefficient of 0.971, value that reflects a very strong direct relationship. We can state
that in Romania, between 1990 and 2009, the aggregate demand growth was mostly
caused by the growth in the final consumption demand (private and public). Between
real investments and aggregate demand, there is also a strong direct relationship, the
Pearson correlation coefficient having the value of 0.867. On the contrary, it is noticed
that there is a very strong negative relationship between the economic variable that
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