Revista Tinerilor Economiºti (The Young Economists Journal)

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Economic Theories – International Economic Relations increases. Thus, the highest value of net export, of -153.4 billion lei, was recorded in 2008 (year when the “economic boom” took place in Romania), and the lowest in 1994 (of -14.8 billion lei). The fact that we import more that we export, and foreign payments and higher than foreign currency revenue, in other words, we consume more than we produce, led to a chronic deficit of the commercial balance. The existence of this negative net export is explained by the existence of a higher domestic demand (consumption + investments) than the domestic supply (GDP), in other words, in the existence of a state of disequilibrium called domestic absorption (figure no. 5). Insufficient adaptation of the national supply to the market’s needs caused the covering of the gap by resorting to imports, but with negative consequences on the both external and domestic equilibrium. The statistical analysis carried out based on the data in annexe no. 1, regarding the net export and employed population, show that, in Romania, between 1990 and 2009, between the two variables there was a direct relationship, but of a very low intensity, getting a value of +0.318 for the Pearson correlation coefficient. In other words, the growth of negative net export, which equals higher imports than exports, constituted one of the causes that led to the decrease of employed population in Romania. The explanation consists in the existence of a high level of import of goods and services as compared to export, fact that does not create favourable conditions for increasing domestic output, on the contrary. In its turn, the reduction of output (especially the industrial one), in Romania caused lay-offs and consequently the reduction of the employment. Therefore, taking some measures of economic policy for stimulating domestic production of economic goods is required. These goods must be comparable with those imported as far as the quality-price relationship is concerned. Only in this case the Romanian consumer will satisfy consumption based on domestically produced products to the detriment of those produced abroad. In order to reduce the negative effect of import on labour employment, it is necessary for domestic producers to adapt their supply to the requirements of companies in order for the domestic demand of consumer and investment goods to find correspondence in the domestic supply. 3.4 The simultaneous influence of the components of aggregate demand on employment Taking into consideration the data recorded in Romania between 1990 and 2009, we aim to highlight the simultaneous influence of the aggregate demand components as well as the overall influence of the aggregate demand on employment, being known that the individual elements of the aggregate demand interact among each other and all these interact with aggregate supply. Based on the analysis of the data in the table of multiple correlation (table no.1), it is noticed that real aggregate demand (made up of domestic demand and external demand) is significantly influenced by consumption, there being a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.971, value that reflects a very strong direct relationship. We can state that in Romania, between 1990 and 2009, the aggregate demand growth was mostly caused by the growth in the final consumption demand (private and public). Between real investments and aggregate demand, there is also a strong direct relationship, the Pearson correlation coefficient having the value of 0.867. On the contrary, it is noticed that there is a very strong negative relationship between the economic variable that 139
Revista Tinerilor Economişti (The Young Economists Journal) reflects the relationships of our country with the others (net export) and aggregate demand, given by the negative value of the Pearson correlation coefficient (-0.868). Table no. 1 The matrix of multiple correlation between employment and aggregate demand (and its components) Final consumption Real investments Net export Aggregate demand Employment Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (1-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (1-tailed). Correlations Final Real Aggregate consumption investments Net export demand Employment 1 ,743** -,871** ,971** -,595** ,000 ,000 ,000 ,003 20 20 20 20 20 ,743** 1 -,840** ,867** ,025 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,458 20 20 20 20 20 -,871** -,840** 1 -,868** ,318 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,086 20 20 20 20 20 ,971** ,867** -,868** 1 -,426* ,000 ,000 ,000 ,031 20 20 20 20 20 -,595** ,025 ,318 -,426* 1 ,003 ,458 ,086 ,031 20 20 20 20 20 Source: Own calculations with SPSS 13.0. for WINDOWS 2003, based on the data in annexe no.1 The statistical analysis of the relationship between civil employment and aggregate demand in Romania, between 1990 and 2009, highlights that between the two indicators there is an inverse, statistically significant relationship (Pearson correlation coefficient = -0.426). It is known that, from the national accounting point of view, the gross domestic product is divided on the following categories of utilization: actual final consumption, gross fixed capital formation, change in inventories, net export of goods and services [7]. From this perspective aggregate demand is equal to the domestic supply (GDP), the negative relationship between civil employment and aggregate demand being explained by the incapacity of domestic supply to adapt to the market’s requirements, so that domestic output would increase in order to meet consumers’ needs, on the domestic and external market, and at the same time to create jobs. Based on the data we got in the table of multiple regression coefficients (according to annexe no. 2), the linear unisectoral econometric model with synchronous influences designed to stimulate the evolution of the civil employed population in Romania, between 1990 and 2009, in relation to the influence of the components of aggregate demand may be written as: Model 1 when all independent variables are taken into consideration: Emp.= 12533.18 – 9.093·C + 13.889·I+ 0.067·E (t=16.997) (t= - 6.744) (t=5.687) (t=0.012) σ= 380.641 (standard error of the estimate) (Fcalculated = 28,278; R 2 = 84.1%) (F 0,05;3;16 = 3,24; t 0,05;16= 2.120 (Emp-civil employment, C-final consumption, I-Investments, E- net export) In model 1 we can notice that between consumption and employed population there is an inverse relationship, the value of the multiple regression coefficient of -9.093 shows that consumption increases by 9.093 billion lei, the employed population 140
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ISSN 1583-9982
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