Revista Tinerilor Economiºti (The Young Economists Journal)

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Business Statistics – Economic Informatics 32. Trichopoulos, D. Preti, A. (1998) The influence of climate on suicidal behaviour in Italy, Psychiatry Research, 78, 9-19. 33. Samuelson, P. (1965) Proof that properly anticipated prices fluctuate randomly. Industrial, Management Review, 6(2) (Spring), 41. 34. Saunders, E. (1993) Stock prices and Wall Street weather. American Economic Review, 83(5), 1337–1345. 35. Schwarz,N., & (1991) Happy and mindless, but sad and smart? The effect Bless, H. of affective states on analytic reasoning. In Forgas, J. ( 1991) Emotional and Social Oxford, 55-71. Judgement, Pergamon, 36. Statman, M. (1999) The end of behavioral finance, Financial Analysts Journal, 55(6) (November/December), 12-17. 37. Tufan, E., & (2004) Do cloudy days affect stock exchange returns: Hamarat, B. Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange. Journal of Naval Science and Engineering, 2(1), 117-126. 38. Tufan, E., & (2006) Are investors affected by the weather conditions: Hamarat, B. Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Journal of ISE Review, Vol:8, 31-41. 39. Işığıçok, E. (1994) Zaman Serilerinde Nedensellik Çözümlemesi, Uludağ Üniversitesi Güçlendirme Vakfı Yayın No:94, 91- 96. 40. Worthington, A. (2006) Whether the weather: A comprehensive assessment of climate effects in the Australian stock market. University of Wollongong, School of Accounting and Finance Working Paper, Series No. 06/17, 2006. 41. Yuan, K., Zheng, (2006) Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock L., & Zhu, O. returns. Journal of Empirical Finance, 13, 1–23. 175
Revista Tinerilor Economişti (The Young Economists Journal) THE INFLUENCE OF THE MACROECONMIC SITUATION IN THE VALUE OF THE SYTEMATIC CREDIT RISK IN ALBANIA. AN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Anila Mançka Ph. D University “Fan S. Noli” Faculty of Economy Korçë, Albania Abstract: The study presents the results of a statistical analysis of the macroeconomic impact in the credit risk in Albania. The purpose of the analysis is the determination of macroeconomic factors that had a significant impact on systematic credit risk in Albania. The analysis resulted that the depreciation of the currency in relation to the euro led to a worsening of financial situation of borrowers who have a loan in Euros, increasing the possibility of default loans. The world financial crisis has adversely affected our banking system, reducing the loans offered and worsening macroeconomic indicators. High inflation and GDP change also had a significant impact on the deterioration of the quality of the banking portfolio. By statistical analysis resulted in the period taken into account, the credit risk in Albania is not influenced by interest rates, export-imports, the unemployment rate and the exchange rate of the dollar. JEL classification: E02, E44, G01, G11, G21. Key words: financial crisis, modern portfolio theory, macroeconomic factors, credit risk factors, Albania banking system. 1. Introduction It is very difficult measurement of the degree of vulnerability of the banking system against unexpected losses that may be caused by the process of loan payment. Efforts have been made to build empirical models that assess the extent of the impact of various macroeconomic factors on indicators measuring the quality of the banking system, namely the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans. In curring loans from borrowers who can not turn them back or that late. These borrowers belonging to different economic groups develop their microeconomic activity at a time and in a certain space. Their behavior depends on and is influenced by the performance of basic indicators that characterize a country’s macroeconomic development. If such indicators show performance it is not conductive to the borrower, it will affect in one way or another loan payment also on the degree of credit and the latter would affect the quality of the banking system. Credit risk is measured by microanalysis, that determine unsystematic risk and macroanalysis, which asses systematic risk (Morton Glantz, 2003). APT developed by Richard Roll and Stephen Ross (1976), was propagandized by CAPM and includes as a key tool survey systematic risk. The methodology adopts economic factors to explain investment returns. APT current research focus on more factorial statistical techniques as factor analysis to dismantle the total return on 176
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REVISTA TINERILOR ECONOMIŞTI ISSN
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What is happened when the rules are
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Source: Tax revenue in the European
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EVALUATION OF MANAGEMENT PERFORMANC
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cash flow statement may also be use
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epaying loans or reducing registere
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operating activity and partially fr
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS CONCERNING THE
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In 2010, the number of large compan
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Figure no. 11 The structure of the
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