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A systematic review of the effectiveness of adalimumab

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88<br />

Health economics<br />

entry<br />

Start new treatment<br />

On<br />

treatment<br />

Quit treatment<br />

Select next<br />

treatment<br />

FIGURE 46 Basic structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> model<br />

Strategies compared using <strong>the</strong> BRAM<br />

Baseline for comparison<br />

Before considering how TNF inhibitors could be<br />

included in treatment strategies, it is convenient to<br />

describe <strong>the</strong> baseline strategy without TNF<br />

inhibitors.<br />

The baseline strategy, based on a survey <strong>of</strong><br />

rheumatology consultants in <strong>the</strong> UK, 25 starts with<br />

methotrexate as single <strong>the</strong>rapy. If methotrexate is<br />

stopped on grounds <strong>of</strong> toxicity, it is followed by<br />

sulfasalazine as single <strong>the</strong>rapy, o<strong>the</strong>rwise by <strong>the</strong><br />

combination <strong>of</strong> methotrexate plus sulfasalazine.<br />

Similarly, if this combination is quit on grounds <strong>of</strong><br />

toxicity, it is followed by leflunomide. But, if <strong>the</strong><br />

methotrexate–sulfasalazine combination lacks<br />

efficacy, hydroxychloroquine is added to <strong>the</strong><br />

combination. These rules are shown in Table 34<br />

under <strong>the</strong> heading ‘Moves dependent on toxicity’.<br />

For most o<strong>the</strong>r treatments, <strong>the</strong> choice <strong>of</strong> treatment<br />

next in sequence, and <strong>the</strong> move to <strong>the</strong> next agent,<br />

simply depend on drug cessation, for whatever<br />

reason. For example, sulfasalazine as single <strong>the</strong>rapy,<br />

in Table 34, is always followed by leflunomide, as<br />

shown under <strong>the</strong> heading ‘Always move to’. In <strong>the</strong><br />

case <strong>of</strong> ciclosporin, <strong>the</strong> preferred next treatment is<br />

<strong>the</strong> combination <strong>of</strong> ciclosporin plus methotrexate.<br />

However, this combination cannot be <strong>of</strong>fered if<br />

ciclosporin has just been quit on grounds <strong>of</strong><br />

toxicity, nor can it be <strong>of</strong>fered if methotrexate was<br />

earlier quit for toxicity. This is shown under<br />

HAQ increase<br />

Death<br />

Event taking no time<br />

Activity taking a variable<br />

amount <strong>of</strong> time<br />

‘Relevant toxicity’. Palliation is <strong>the</strong> treatment <strong>of</strong> last<br />

resort and <strong>the</strong>refore cannot be quit.<br />

The structure as shown in Table 34 is more general<br />

than <strong>the</strong> structure used in previous versions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

BRAM: all <strong>the</strong> previous strategies in <strong>the</strong> model<br />

can be described by tables <strong>of</strong> this form.<br />

Comparisons<br />

For clarity, <strong>the</strong> word ‘comparison’ is reserved for<br />

an analysis comparing two options. The term<br />

‘strategy set’ is used for a collection <strong>of</strong> strategies<br />

(treatment sequences) with a common initial<br />

sequence and divergence point.<br />

Single TNF inhibitors (versus no TNF inhibitor)<br />

In <strong>the</strong>se strategy sets only one TNF inhibitor is<br />

used. There are six options in each case:<br />

<strong>adalimumab</strong> alone; etanercept alone; each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

three TNF inhibitors combined with methotrexate;<br />

and <strong>the</strong> comparator option without TNF inhibitors.<br />

These produce a total <strong>of</strong> 15 possible comparisons:<br />

five (‘major comparisons’) relate to including each<br />

TNF inhibitor singly within a sequence without<br />

TNF inhibitors and ten (‘minor comparisons’) relate<br />

to comparisons between different TNF inhibitors.<br />

Single TNF inhibitor at <strong>the</strong> start In this strategy set,<br />

<strong>the</strong> divergence point is at <strong>the</strong> start <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

sequence, that is, patients are treated with a TNF<br />

inhibitor before any o<strong>the</strong>r DMARD (see Table 35,

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