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THE UNlTED KlNGDOM ALLIANCE. 239
it would certainly produce a chronic condition of tumult and
anarchy.* It may well be questioned how IL Bill, which is not
to become law within any calculable time, and is then to
occasion a chronic condition of tumult and anarchy, can be
considered the most effective remedy for intemperance at the
present time. An effective remedy surely means one that
can be carried into effect, and will then effect its intended
purpose.
The Bishop's speech brought strongly to my mind an
argument against the policy and conduct of tho United
Kingdom Alliance, which for some years pxwiously I llad
frequently considered. Before the Alliance can carry into
effect their benevolent intentions, they must bring about three
events, which seem to me substantially separate and independent..
First, t.hey must pass their Act ; secondly, they must
get Iocalities to adopt it; thirdly, they must carry out the
provisions of the law in those localities. Success in any one
or two of these steps is ueeless and worse than useless without
succesa in all three. But thon the probabilities accumulate
in a very serious manner against any courBe of action
which thus involves several independent contingencies.
This may be illustrated by an imaginary calculation. 'faking
a view of the caae which many persons will think far too
favourable to the Alliance, Jet us suppose that there is one
chance in ten in favour of carrying the Permissive Bill during
the next twenty years; supposing it carried, let us take one
chance in five as the probability that it would be widely adopted
by localities, after the interval of tumult and anarchy predicted
by the Bishop. The Act being at last in force, let
The following is B quotation from the Biehop'e speech, as reported
in The Hancheeter Guardian: " Supposing tho Bill were passed, he
looked with extreme apprehension at the chronic condition of tumult
and anarchy which would be certain to prevail in attempting to carry
it out in the large and populous communities. He could not conceive
any state of things more terrible than possibly would ensue from the
strife which would be engendered by that measure. He thought public
opinion mast ripen very much more fully than it had yet done before
there WSB any chance of the Permissive Bill becoming an deative law ;
and he believed Sir Wilfrid bwmn felt that himself."