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240 METHODS OF SOCIAL REFORM.
of Commons ; but I deny tht, if pawed, we could in the
least predict the action of the ratepayers. Nothing is more
uncertain and inexplicable than popular votes, especially those
in which the mass of the population have the predominating
voice. Even after the poll is published, no one can surely tell
why tho electors so voted. No one will ever be able to show
by what preciae inflaences Mr. Gladstone’s Government was
driven from power in 1874. It may have been a genuine
Coneervative reaction, or disgust at the sudden dissolution, or
tho combination of tho publicans, or more probably a union of
these and other causes; but my point is that no one could
have calculated upon the event. All that we can be sure of
in popular vot,es is that we cannot estimate the motives in
action, or the results to be expected. The Alliance say they
have ascertained, by house to house inquiry, that in some
places two-thirds or more of the ratepayers are willing to vote
for prohibition. But I attach little importance to such inquiries.
It is really less trouble to sign a voting paper or a. petition
than to refuse, when the person, if he knows what he is signing,
must be aware that no practical result will follow the Act.
In the case of Bristol, the publicans showed how readily they
also could get signatures. It is one thing to sign papers which
can ham no effect-good or bad-during the present generation
; it would bo quite a different thing to sign such papers
if the immodiato result was to be the dreadful state of tumult
and anarchy in the neighbourhood, so confidently expected by
the Bishop of Manchester.
I am inclined to fear that on this point the Bishop is right.
There is undoubtedly a substratum of English population
always ready for riot, if any pretext can be found, And what
better pretext could be given to them than the closing of their
public-houses? The very number of the drunken is a main
obstacle to sudden prohibition; it would be the easiest thing
in the world for publicans to stir up such a tumult in boronghs
or parishes adopting prohibition as would effectually deter the
ratepayers of other parishes from vot,ing for prohibition. Does
the Bkhop seriotdy believe that, if the applioation of the A&
gave rise to tumult and anarchy, two-thirds of the ratepayers