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238 METHODS OF SOCIAL REFORBf.
tla take one ohance in two ~ hl representing the probability that
it will work satisfactorily, and sapprees excessive drinking. If
theee events are independent and separate, we get the probability
that they will all happen in succession in 8 manner
favourable to the purposes of the Nliance, by multiplying
bgether the separate probabilities. This gives us one chance
in a hundred a8 expressing the pFobaba‘lity that the weEEmeaning
supporters of the Permissive Bill will ever achieve in this way
the de&o of thsir hearts.
This view of the matter, having been stated in a letter published
by !Dm LVnnchentcr Examiner and Times of October 28th,
1876, drew forth sovertll able replies from members of the
Allisnco, among which the letters of the Rev. Mr. Steinthal
and Nr. William Hoylo were the most formidable. Both of
these gentlemen strike at the very root of my argument by
asserting that the probabilities are not really independenh of
each other. If In England,” 8s Mr. Steinthal says, ‘‘No
measure can p1h9~ the Legislature which is not backed by
public opinion, and the agitation which is being carried on
throughout the United Kingdom in favour of the Permissive
Bill is at om and the same time preparing the localities to try
its beneficent provisions. . , . The Executive of the
Alliance know that there are many places where the BilI would
bo immediately applied if it were to be passed next year.’’
Mr. Hoyle says, nearly to the same effect, rt It will be impossible
for the Permissive Bill to pass the House of Commons,
unless the country generally be educated upon the question,
and the education which secures the passing of the Bill in the
House will to a very general extent ensure its passing in the
oountry.”
While admitting that these members of the Alliance haye
selected the right mode of meeting my argument, I am still
disposed to regerd my view aa substantially correct.
It waa
not adopted by me on the spur of the moment, but had been
metorely considered dnring severel years.* I have, therefore,
* Bin- pnbliehing the letter in The .&czminar and Titnee, I have
become acquainted with the publicetione of hfr. Joeeph Liveaey on the
same subject. Theee are entitled : ‘‘ Free and Friendly Remarks upon