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METHODS OF SOCZAZ REFORM.
vsat number of voters who do not go to the poll, and for fhoee
who, without approving of the Permissive Bill, vote on other
gmande for sappotfern of it. No oslcalstions on this snbjd
could have the bast pretensions to exactness ; but, making the
best judgment I can, I ehodd say thet, with one-quarter of
tho electom at their back, tho Alliance could carry their Bill,
and probably a less number would suffice. To carry the law
into general operation, however, would require a majority of
two-thirds in every parish or voting district. Now, two-thirds
is two and two-thirds times as pent as a quarter, and it comes
to this, that tho Allinnco must educate tho people between two
and three t,imcs as much to put thoir law into action as to get
it passod. This is ono of tho many grounds on which I mould
assert, in opposition to Mr. Stointhnl and Mr. Hoyle, that the
aooarnulation of probabilities is against the Alliance.
IV .
I decline to enter upon the question whether a prohibitory
law, if rcally put in operation, would work successfully and
diminish intempornncc in a groat degree. To adduce evidence
for or against tho probability of such a result would be quite
impossible within the necessmy limits imposed upon this paper,
I take it for granted thnt anyone is justified in entertaining
doubts upon tho subject, nnd I think it is very favourable to
the Alliance to nssign one-half as tho probability of prohibition
suppreming drunksnnesa. The ovidence derived from America
or the colonies upon this subject is of the most conflicting
oharaoter, and even if we allow that the closing of publichouses
baa been n blessing in one or two States of the Union,
and in many rural parishes of England, it does not in the least
follow that the same measure will be practicable and beneficial
in great cities and among Q populnt,ion of very different nature.
In countries whore the people nre educated up to the point of
acoepting prohibition by ~b very large majority, prohibition
would probably work well ; but I deny that the main body of
the English people are anywhere near this pint. There could
be no objeotion to the Allianoe educating people aa much as