George w. casey jr. - Federation of American Scientists

in the 20 th century, these themes of friction and
fog, or reconnaissance and surveillance, would become
increasingly evident in American military doctrine,
as expressed in the Cold War era FM 100-5,
Operations:
Combat intelligence provides knowledge of the enemy
and the area of operations vital to the successful
conduct of operations. It reduces the unknown
factors and, therefore, is of great significance to
the commander and his estimate of the situation. 8
Perhaps the simplest understanding of uncertainty
derives from the realm of mathematics. Solving for
the unknown is a concept familiar to anyone who
has completed a course in algebra. As in an algebraic
equation, there is a problem and ultimately
a solution. Indeed, engineers and scientists are familiar
with this clear cut framework for problemsolving.
9 The military has a host of problems that fit
these criteria, of which risk management is a prominent
example. Army doctrine requires a consideration
of probability in the calculation of risk. FM
5-19, Composite Risk Management, uses an implicitly
mathematical approach that includes estimating
the frequency that a event may occur. 10 Whether
firing artillery, delivering an aerial resupply drop, or
planning the company organization day, there are
calculations to be made and risks to be mitigated.
The Army demands that its leaders determine “an
initial risk assessment that compares the potential
for threat (tactical) and hazard (accident) risk
against the factors of METT-TC.” 11 Indeed, this first
step of risk analysis aligns closely with the thinking
of Jomini about uncertainty. Arguably, this notion
of risk and probability offers the most widespread
framework for uncertainty available to the Army.
Outside of the military arena, there have been vast
improvements in the description of uncertainty.
One field that deserves attention is organizational
design. In essence, organizational design considers
how an organization relates with the larger world. In
defining uncertainty within an environment, there
are two essential variables. As Richard Daft explains
in his text Organization Theory and Design,
“…uncertainty means that decision makers do not
have sufficient information about environmental
factors, and they have a difficult time predicting
external changes…Characteristics of the environmental
domain that influence uncertainty are the
extent to which the external domain is simple or
complex and the extent to which events are stable
or unstable.” 12 With this basic definition in hand, it
is easy to identify different ways in which an organization
contends with its environment. Put simply,
these two variables create a simple two dimensional
framework for interpreting an environment. The
first dimension spans from simplicity to complexity.
Think of this as all the different types of information
necessary to survive. The second dimension spans
from stability to instability. Think of this as the pace
of change taking place. Some organizations operate
in a stable, simple environment. In such a world, it
is fairly easy to predict what will take place. Still,
other groups may face a great amount of instability
in addition to a very complicated set of environmental
conditions. 13
Wicked problems emerge from this challenging
environment of uncertainty. By definition, a wicked
problem is one that cannot be easily solved. Horst
Rittel and Melvin Webber offer an enduring observation
of such problems. More importantly, they
critique the planning profession as inadequate for
a complex environment, noting that “the classical
paradigm of science and engineering…is not applicable
to the problems of open societal systems.” 14
They continue by challenging a central tenet of military
planning, arguing that the step-by-step process
of first understanding the problem, then gathering
information in order to analyze and then solving a
problem cannot work for a wicked problem. Instead,
Rittel and Webber contend, “For wicked problems…
one cannot understand the problem without knowing
about its context; one cannot meaningfully
search for information without the orientation of a
solution concept; one cannot first understand, then
solve.” 15
So how does uncertainty relate to wicked problems?
For one, the complex open societal model described
by Rittel and Webber is similar to that of
the organization design model of uncertainty driven
by complexity and instability. Still wicked problems
present other aspects of uncertainty. Because there
are no underlying rules for solving wicked problems,
it is impossible to know if the problem has
been solved. A planner stops work on such problems
not because a definitive solution has been
found, but because critical resources run out. 16 It is
moreover impossible to identify all the potential solutions
to a wicked problem, sometimes there may
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