George w. casey jr. - Federation of American Scientists

it would garner. However, it is a fact that these devices
could serve a very practical purpose in the effort
to move drug shipments unimpeded across the
border. While it is unlikely that Sinaloa and its allies
will turn to IED use, largely due to their effort
to avoid garnering unwanted attention, Los Zetas
have shown no such inclination. They appear to
conduct their attacks with the intent of gaining additional
exposure and to instill fear in those who resist
them. Therefore, Los Zetas are the most likely
group to use IEDs in the U.S., and it is not surprising
that they are the cartel that has been the most
proactive in increasing the use of IEDs in Mexico.
The reason Los Zetas have not begun using IEDs
north of the border is because they still have other
successful methods to traffic drugs into the U.S.,
and they fear that the attention that would be
drawn to the border by the use of IEDs would result
in increased security and decreased profits. This
is likely to change in the near future since border
security is currently a key issue, even without the
use of IEDs. As systems such as the Secure Border
Initiative Network (SBInet) are emplaced along the
border, trafficking will become increasingly difficult,
and the likelihood of apprehension for traffickers
will become extremely high. 12 In addition, the increased
use of National Guard Forces on the border
to supplement the increasing numbers of Border
Patrol agents will provide the manpower necessary
to respond to the alerts given by the newly emplaced
systems. As Los Zetas and their associates face an
increasingly difficult smuggling environment, the
fear of increased attention and border security as a
result of IED use may become a non-issue.
In addition to the threat of increased border security,
a second factor may hold the potential to
force Los Zetas toward IED proliferation. The New
Federation led by Sinaloa is not only the largest alliance
of cartels, but it frequently declares its desire
to eliminate Los Zetas due to their increasingly unorthodox
and casualty-producing tactics. 13 In addition,
the government has focused its attention on
Los Zetas and their allies, with the Beltran-Leyva
Cartel suffering the most from the recent capture of
multiple high-ranking leaders. 14
While Los Zetas are currently holding their own,
they are beginning to show signs of weakening due
to the constant attrition of their personnel and resources.
If Sinaloa completes its takeover of Juarez
and Los Zetas fail in their recent bid to expand
their influence in Monterrey, they will face an increasingly
desperate situation. With less trafficking
routes available for use, they will be hard-pressed to
match the growing resources of the New Federation.
Their only recourse will be an attempt to do more
with less, providing a prime opportunity for IED
use. The cost of an IED pales in comparison to the
amount of funds a successful shipment can provide,
and any fallout in the form of additional border
security would affect the New Federation as much
as it would Los Zetas. As has been seen in other insurgencies,
a pressured organization commonly retaliates
by increasing attacks in an effort to increase
public and political pressure on those who are targeting
them. If Los Zetas find themselves backed
into a corner, the use of IEDs would serve the dualpurpose
of increasing pressure on the Mexican government
as well as hampering the activities of the
New Federation.
Once any of the cartels decide to begin using IEDs,
the time between order and action is likely to be
very short because the infrastructure necessary to
build the devices and to conduct the attacks already
exists. Spotters, whose only job is to monitor the
U.S. Border Patrol movements, are actively assisting
traffickers, and the transition from solely watching
patrols to executing attacks would likely be very
quick. The intent to injure or interdict Border Patrol
agents is already present, as exemplified by the
occurrence of barbed wire being stretched across
patrol routes and sharp objects being placed on
footpaths. Drug mules face varying threats if they
return home without delivering their product, and
they will carry and use weapons in order to defend
their product. IED use is the logical next step as the
traffickers will have to adopt new measures to disrupt
Border Patrol operations as their likelihood of
capture increases.
The cartels already contain many former engineers
and miners who are experienced in the use of
explosives, and they could easily transition into IED
builders. TOVEX, a water-gel explosive that was released
by E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company
(DUPONT) as a replacement for dynamite, is prolific
in Mexico and has been found in both caches and
IEDs throughout the country. 15 Despite the ruggedness
of the border, many areas have a stable cellular
network, thus allowing spotters to detonate the
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