George w. casey jr. - Federation of American Scientists

potheses allow analysts to think of other potential
results without bias in order to inform the policymaker
on threat courses of action.
An additional factor to take into consideration is
Israel. Iran has vowed to destroy Israel. Israel’s nationhood
is potentially in jeopardy given an Iran
armed with a nuclear weapon. The U.S. has a covenant
with Israel to protect its existence. Analysts
must determine possible repercussions of an Israeli
preemptive strike against Iran. Additionally, Iran is
known to be a state sponsor of terrorism to Hezbollah
and Hamas. Iran also supports Syria with weapons,
technology, and additional considerations.
Any attack on Iran could unleash terrorist organizations
kept in reasonable reserve recently, or, in
the case of Hamas, at least since the end of “Cast
Lead.” This period of relative calm has enabled these
organizations to rearm and rethink attack scenarios
against Israel. With the support of Iran, Hezbollah
likely upgraded its military capabilities since the
end of the 2006 conflict. With the help of North
Korea, the potential exists that Iran could already
be in possession of a nuclear device. If such a device
were transferred to either Hezbollah or Hamas, with
deliberate instructions for use given a preemptive
strike by Israel against Iran, then the possession of
such a device by terrorist organizations could throw
the world into global chaos.
The need for additional consideration due to the
possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz resonates
throughout the intelligence community.
According to one news outlet, “between 15 and 16.5
million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz
each day, roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil
production.” 14 Iran may attempt
to close the Strait if attacked. This
closure would severely disrupt the
flow of oil to world markets. This
could cause global inflation never
before seen. In fact, the likelihood
of global chaos could include a
breakdown of life saving services
in many areas. Analysts should
watch the movement of mine laying
equipment near the Strait of
Hormuz in order to complete their
predictive analysis.
Based on previous Israeli strikes
against Iraq under “Operation
Opera” in 1981, and the attack
against Al Kibar, predictive analysis
should lead analysts to believe
that Israel will not allow for a nuclear-armed
Iran. 15 In fact, Israel has already conducted much of
the preparations needed in order to conduct a preemptive
attack against Iran. In June 2008, Israel
conducted an air exercise that mimicked the same
distance from Israel to the uranium enrichment
plant in Natanz, Iran. During this exercise, over 100
aircraft conducted what many analysts view as a
prelude to an inevitable attack on Iran.
The U.S. presence in Iraq creates a unique strain
on Israeli attack planning. The U.S. controls most
of the air space over Iraq; any Israeli strike against
Iran would include the need to fly through space
controlled by the U.S. Questions loom over how the
U.S. would react to a surprise maneuver by Israeli
Air Forces to strike Iran without approval by the
U.S. to utilize Iraqi air space. Alternatives from flying
over Iraq are not realistic. Interestingly, Israel
has a history of militarily engaging the U.S. in a
hostile manner when the need for security dictates
such intervention.
In 1967, during the Six Day War, Israel engaged
the USS Liberty, which led to 34 Americans killed,
and wounding more than 170. 16 At the time, the
USS Liberty was an information-gathering vessel located
off the coast of Israel in the Mediterranean
Sea. Although many believed the attack was intentional,
“Israel has maintained since the attack that
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