George w. casey jr. - Federation of American Scientists

plant, gave concrete evidence to these lawmakers of
North Korean nuclear proliferation. 11 Sharing this
technology with Syria likely brought a significant
amount of financial support to the reclusive regime
in North Korea.
The current show of nuclear capabilities by North
Korea could include a capability demonstration
to potential customers. A North Korean sale of a
nuclear weapon to a terrorist organization like Al
Qaeda, Hezbollah, or Hamas would serve many purposes.
A condition of a sale might include conducting
a detonation on U.S. soil, or at least against a
large U.S. military population such as in Iraq or
Afghanistan. The sale would generate both revenue
for North Korea, and achieve a military victory
against the U.S. The revenue gained would enable
North Korea to purchase both commodities and military
related equipment. The commodities would give
stability to the nation and satisfy Juche ideology. A
military victory in a war of proxy against the U.S.
would cleanse North Korean hands of allegations of
wrongdoing, and keep the U.S. military on its heels.
With the U.S. military reeling from a possible significant
loss, the North Koreans could capitalize on
this event and launch a preemptive strike against
South Korea. A unified Korean Peninsula under the
rule of North Korea has been a long-standing goal
of the isolated nation. Key indicators should allow
analysts to determine intentions by North Korea.
Analysts must take a holistic look at the entirety
of the North Korean military in order to determine
possible aggressive intentions from this rogue nation.
A North Korean military conflict would be precipitated
by movements of large units and pieces of
equipment from storage areas to areas of anticipated
engagement. Indications and Warning would allow
only limited time for reaction. However, the movement
of such large forces would take time in order
to be prepared for engagement. Understanding
non-typical military movements is paramount to
the warning of potential direct military conflict with
North Korea. Proliferation of technology and weapons
from North Korea to Iran are predictable and
understandable from this perspective.
Many weapons, especially missile technology
in the Iranian inventory seems to replicate North
Korean missile systems. As the other remaining
“Axis of Evil,” it would only make sense that the foes
of the U.S. unite and share information, technology,
and equipment in order to defeat the common
enemy. The commonality between the two nations
stems from purchasing technology and information
from Abdul Qadeer Khan. 12 A. Q. Khan, a renowned
Pakistani with expertise in nuclear energy and
weapons, purportedly sold centrifuge technology to
North Korea and Iran before his capture. 13 Iran is
likely paying great attention to western reactions to
North Korea’s nuclear declaration and testing.
Iran’s policy to the U.S., Israel, and the rest of the
world will take shape as world reactions to North
Korea’s nuclear ambitions evolve. Confronting Iran
is difficult given the significant U.S. military presence
in the Middle East. Analysts must determine
whether the intention of Iran is to build peaceful
nuclear energy or a nuclear weapons capability.
Given the limited resources, information from
within the withdrawn nation makes analysis difficult.
The miscalculated analysis of the presence of
weapons of mass destruction in Iraq prior to military
conflict in 2003, may lead analysts to refuse
to make a concrete determination on the capabilities
of the Iranian nuclear program. This bias could
place the security of the Middle East in jeopardy.
If the U.S. does not engage Iran prior to a declared
nuclear weapons capability, then it is forced to deal
with the aftermath of a nuclear weapons capable
Iran. U.S. policy towards Iran would likely change in
the advent of austere changes in Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
In the event that Iran is simply interested
in peaceful nuclear energy, and the U.S. attacked
Iran, the world would hold the U.S. directly responsible
for the aggression. A miscalculated judgment
could cost the U.S. insurmountable losses in the financial
sector, a loss of authority within the world,
and create retaliations by Iran against the U.S.
with the gravest conditions. This burden on analysts
creates a bias that unless gotten rid of makes
the right decision by policymakers nothing short of
questionable.
The analyst’s job is not to influence policy. The
analyst’s job is to inform policymakers on events
and potential courses of action by the enemy. Indepth
analysis utilizing the political, economic, military,
social, infrastructure and information factors
enable analysts to take into consideration multiple
aspects when drawing conclusions. Competing hy-
64 Military Intelligence