George w. casey jr. - Federation of American Scientists

y Sergeant Matthew Ludwig
The opinions expressed in this document are my own
and do not represent any official Department of Defense
or U.S. Government policy or position.
Introduction
The U.S. was caught off-guard by the use of improvised
explosive devices (IEDs) in both Afghanistan
and Iraq. In Afghanistan, IEDs were an unexpected
threat used by remnants of the Taliban after their
removal from power. While IEDs were expected to
be used by pro-Saddamist insurgents following the
invasion of Iraq, the level of sophistication achieved
by groups affiliated with alternate extremist movements
could not have been foreseen. Despite the
lessons learned about IED use from these two conflicts,
the U.S. has failed to prepare itself and will
again be caught off-guard, this time by the cartels
currently causing turmoil in Mexico. Despite news
reports detailing the cartels’ use of IEDs and their
recent transition to vehicle borne IEDs (VBIEDs),
the situation remains under-analyzed, and security
forces are unprepared for a situation that may
involve IED use along the border. If the U.S. does
not prepare for this eventual occurrence, it will run
the risk of attempting to play catch-up again, only
this time with an enemy who is harder to catch.
Accurate prediction as to when IED use will move
north requires an understanding of the situation in
Mexico and the conditions and events that could
prompt the use of this tactic.
Warring Cartels
The current reality in Mexico is that the government
is caught in the middle of a war between two
groups of cartels. On one side is the New Federation,
led by the Sinaloa, La Familia, and Gulf Cartels,
while on the other side is the group consisting of the
upstart Los Zetas and their allies. The fighting between
these two factions is the reason for the current
cycle of violence that has left Mexico in turmoil.
The effort to gain power and influence has led to an
increase in ruthless and brutal tactics. As with any
conflict, innovation breeds imitation and Mexico is
no exception. Los Zetas are the driving force behind
the increase in brazen violence. Their consistent effort
to instill fear in their enemies is driving their
opponents to retaliate in kind. 1
The New Federation, headed by two former enemies,
namely the Gulf and Sinaloa Cartels, is
currently the larger of the two alliances. The Gulf
and Sinaloa Cartels joined forces due to the threat
posed by the newer cartels. The violence propagated
by groups such as Los Zetas had destroyed
the symbiotic relationship the cartels had previously
maintained with the Mexican people and their
government. The New Federation appears to receive
less attention from the Mexican government and security
forces than their competitors. The reasons
for this vary, but the prevailing theories are government
corruption and the fact that the Sinaloa
and Gulf Cartels are similar to the American Mafia,
as they prefer to keep their operations quiet in order
to draw less attention to their activities. The
likely truth is that the New Federation is the lesser
of the two evils in the eyes of the Mexican government,
and the initial decision was to focus security
efforts on defeating the most violent of the cartels.
Despite the New Federation’s stated intentions,
whether grounded in truth or not, the current violence
spurred by Los Zetas shows no sign of lessening.
The New Federation continues to practice the
same type of violent tactics as their rivals. 2
Los Zetas have a history full of twists and turns.
They were initially a group of former Mexican
Special Forces members who deserted to become
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