George w. casey jr. - Federation of American Scientists

Korea. Information released by party leaders in
Pyongyang spin the truth right out of the story
broadcasted by the Korean Central News Agency
(KCNA). Party leaders, especially Kim Jong-Il, must
represent a strengthened party at all costs. At times,
the KCNA released digitally altered pictures of Kim
Jong-Il in order to create an illusion of a healthy
leader. An example of this occurred in 2008, when
rumors speculating that the North Korean leader
had a stroke. 4 The KCNA released a picture that Kim
Jong-Il had supposedly taken with military members
in order to quash speculation concerning the
health of the North Korean “Dear Leader.” 5 The picture
showed shadows behind Kim Jong-Il that were
at a different angle than the shadows of the soldiers
around him, proving that the picture was a fake.
Analysts may deduct that the current round of
rhetoric is in support of Kim Jong-Il’s third son, Kim
Jong-un. 6 Kim Jong-un is reportedly in line to succeed
Kim Jong-Il as the leader of North Korea. Kim
Jong-Il may want to put an increased amount of
pressure on the international community prior to
his death in order to set his son up for success. This
is viewed from the perspective typical of many familial
patterns of love and succession. Kim Jong-Il may
feel that the increased pressure and nuclear rhetoric
might bring about greater concessions to North
Korea. This gift to his son would put him in great
light in the eyes of the people. This logic may seem
too risky for Westerners; however, when dealing
with the instability of an ailing leader, this scenario
becomes plausible. Having a new leader bring great
fortunes to his country may give the appearance
that the new leader is in charge and self-reliant.
Self-reliance, or Juche, is the key leadership principle
or ideology that guides many awkward maneuvers
by North Korea. 7 North Korea relies on China
for many staples to keep the nation running. If
North Korea created a hasty and deplorable venue
to display their seemingly unstable might, perhaps
the concessions drawn could reduce the amount of
support required of China. These concessions could
give the appearance of self-reliance to the people,
and suppress any instability as the result of a regime
change within North Korea. Another way to
gain self-reliance is with the sale of military equipment
and technologies to a
paying customer.
Weapons and weapons related
technology are the main
goods that North Korea exports.
Consumers range from
possible terrorist organizations
to countries like Yemen, Iran,
and Syria. In 2002, the U.S.
along with the Spanish Navy
intercepted a cargo ship bound
for Yemen loaded with twelve
disassembled SCUD missiles. 8
Even though the sale of these
missiles turned out to be within
international legal guidelines,
it brought to light the proliferation
of military weapon systems
from North Korea to other
nations. Assurances by Yemen allowed for the continuation
of the shipment, as it made a guarantee of
sorts to the U.S. that the missiles would not end up
in the hands of terrorists. 9 In 2007, North Korean
technology proliferation reared its head again in
Syria.
Syria secretly built a nuclear reactor at Al Kibar
that included specific technical help and assistance
from North Korea. In September 2007, Israel bombed
this site, amidst speculation that the site included
a nuclear reactor similar in size, dimension, and
features to the nuclear plant in Yongbyong, North
Korea. 10 Supposedly, a video shared with members
of Congress showing North Koreans in the Syrian
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