Analysis of Sales Promotion Effects on Household Purchase Behavior

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promotional unit-sales across the categories. This is the weighted average <strong>of</strong> the category specific decompositions, where the weights are based on the number <strong>of</strong> promotional shopping trips within each product category. Table 8.9: Unit-sales decomposition <strong>of</strong> promotional sales Product category Change in purchase time (TA) Brand switching (BS) S<strong>of</strong>t drinks 0.38 0.34 0.27 Fruit juice 0.58 0.25 0.17 C<strong>of</strong>fee 0.48 0.39 0.14 Potato chips 0.41 0.13 0.46 Candy bars 0.63 0.27 0.10 Pasta 0.47 0.39 0.14 Overall 0.46 0.33 0.21 Change in purchase quantity (QP) The strongest effect <strong>of</strong> promotions seems to be a change in purchase time. Overall, almost half <strong>of</strong> the promotional unit sales are due to changes in purchase timing. <strong>Promotion</strong>s have a large impact on consumers’ purchase timing decisions. These unit sales are incremental at this moment, but cannot be considered as truly incremental since at least some <strong>of</strong> these consumers would have bought the promoted brand in the future, anyway. Across the categories, the brand switch effect is 33 percent, which means that 1/3 <strong>of</strong> the current promotional unit sales comes from consumers that did not change their interpurchase timing but were drawn from a competitive brand. Regular consumers that would have bought the brand at the promotional shopping trip anyway account for the remaining 20 percent <strong>of</strong> the promotional unit sales. Differences across the product categories are found. The brand switch effect varies between the categories from 13 percent for potato chips tot 39 percent for c<strong>of</strong>fee and pasta. C<strong>of</strong>fee and pasta promotions are the most effective in drawing current consumers from competitive brands. Especially candy bars seem to be bought from promotion to promotion, as 63 percent <strong>of</strong> the total unit sales can be attributed to changes in purchase timing. Potato chips 183
promotions lead to large purchase timing and purchase quantity effects. But they are less effective for drawing current consumers from competitive brands (13 percent). As mentioned before, prior studies on promotional bump decomposition focused on decomposing extra sales due to promotions instead <strong>of</strong> the total sales. The quantity purchased during an accelerated or decelerated shopping trip leads entirely to extra current unit sales, the same goes for brand switch purchases. But when regular buyers purchase the promoted product during a regular time interval, the quantity bought is not entirely incremental. The average non-promotional purchase quantity is subtracted to get the extra quantity purchased due to the promotion ( q − q ), where q represents the average non-promotional purchase quantity. Figure 8.2 depicts this decomposition <strong>of</strong> incremental promotional unit sales. <strong>Promotion</strong>al unit sales Figure 8.2:Decomposition <strong>of</strong> promotional incremental unit sales The empirical results <strong>of</strong> this decomposition can be found in Table 8.10. The more detailed results (distinguishing between time acceleration and time deceleration effects) can be found in Table A8.6 (absolute numbers) and Table A8.7 (relative numbers). 184 Change in time (TA) <strong>Sales</strong> are extra sales No change in time Accelerated purchases (TA - ) Decelerated purchases (TA + ) Brand switch (BS) <strong>Sales</strong> are extra sales No brand switch (QP) <strong>Sales</strong> minus non-promotional sales are extra sales
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LINDA H. TEUNTER Analysis</
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Analysis o
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Voorwoord Soms valt de appel echt n
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Contents 1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIE
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5.4.2.3.1 Inter Purchase Time .....
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1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 1.1 Int
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generally generated from a smaller
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switching, purchase acceleration, c
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strategy change (decrease in promot
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of promotions, or
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characteristics are important in ex
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Chapter 5 are applied to study the
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2 THEORIES OF CONSUMER BUYING BEHAV
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systematically explored the decisio
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the part of the co
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As mentioned before, Figure 2.3 is
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product use coupled with the import
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2.3.2 Stimulus-Response Model Appli
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2.3.2.2 Operant Conditioning In ope
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X is very popular that it will brin
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But, in contrast, economic theory c
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compared to a perceived benchmark -
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High need-for-cognition (NFC) indiv
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2.3.4.2 Literature Overview Our rev
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The previously described research h
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has its deficiencies. Any purchase
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Chandon et al. 2000). But deal pron
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2.4 Concluding Remarks Regarding th
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stimulus-organism-response model) c
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Shoemaker 1987). Several factors ha
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such as display promotions. Althoug
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3.2.3 Type of resi
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3.2.5 Education Education links to
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these advantages therefore could be
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less likely to seek variety. More e
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3.3.1 Store Loyalty Store loyalty s
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more often (probab
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Table 3.12 continued Hypothesis H9a
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4.2.1 Brand Switching Brand switchi
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involvement purchases for most cons
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Neslin (1998), there is a great nee
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are called “attributions.” Attr
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and less than 2 percent by stockpil
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into a unit sales decomposition and
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4.3.4 Storability/Perishability Sto
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Economic theory ignores mental deci
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seeking (cf. Assael 1987, Desphande
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there another factor that is relate
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Pr(event) 90 = 1+ 1 z e − Here Z
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5.4.2 Sales <stron
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It represents the fraction
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96 We measure possible time acceler
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promotional post-promotional purcha
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( 12) CategoryExpansion effect : 10
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PART II EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 103
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more persons living together and di
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6.4 Linking Household and Store Dat
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Table 6.1 contains the results <str
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The age of the sho
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Table 6.4: Frequency distribution <
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7 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ONE: DRIVERS O
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Table 7.1: Operationalization <stro
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during 435 shopping trips more than
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The variables size, age, and cycle
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7.5 Results Drivers of</str
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esponsive the households within tha
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Table 7.3: Relationship promotion r
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indication that decreasing marginal
Page 144 and 145: Table 7.6: Relationship promotion r
Page 146 and 147: Table 7.8: Relationship promotion r
Page 148 and 149: Table 7.10: Relationship promotion
Page 154 and 155: 7.5.2.8 Variety Seeking Two intrins
Page 156 and 157: anymore. Therefore it is concluded
Page 158 and 159: Thus, store loyalty and promotion r
Page 160 and 161: dummies add up to one. This implies
Page 162 and 163: Table 7.22: Overview empirical test
Page 164 and 165: enacting-on-impulse hypothesis and
Page 166 and 167: Table 7.23: Summary of</str
Page 168: Table 7.24: Correlation error coeff
Page 171 and 172: another category? Or do households
Page 173 and 174: and unweighted. With respect to the
Page 175 and 176: 164 In general, the average quantit
Page 177 and 178: Purchase frequency is defined as th
Page 179 and 180: Table 8.3: Product category rating
Page 181 and 182: Table 8.4: Pearson correlation betw
Page 183 and 184: We hypothesized that within impulse
Page 185 and 186: measure (PU). Referring to Figure A
Page 187 and 188: Table 8.6: Significant within categ
Page 189 and 190: looked at this promotional bump dec
Page 191 and 192: Table 8.8: Differences in promotion
Page 193: approach (about one third) are much
Page 197 and 198: studies. Promotion
Page 199 and 200: Promotional extra
Page 201 and 202: categories revealed that the strong
Page 203 and 204: degree. When households switch bran
Page 205 and 206: specific sales promotion reaction m
Page 207 and 208: increasing (Inman and Winer 1998),
Page 209 and 210: indirectly from promotional purchas
Page 211 and 212: quantity downward for potato chips.
Page 213 and 214: 9.2.2.3 Deal Proneness With respect
Page 215 and 216: 204 related to promotion response.
Page 217 and 218: influenced by out-of</stron
Page 219 and 220: Andrews, K.Z. (1997), “Do Marketi
Page 221 and 222: Blattberg, R.C., Eppen, G.D. and J.
Page 223 and 224: Chintagunta, P. (1993), “Investig
Page 225 and 226: East, R. and K. Hammond (1996), “
Page 227 and 228: Gupta, Sachin and P.K. Chintagunta
Page 229 and 230: Kahn, B.E., Morrison, D.G.and G.P.
Page 231 and 232: Lattin, J.M. and R.E. Bucklin (1989
Page 233 and 234: McAlister, L. and E. Pessemier (198
Page 235 and 236: Petty, R.E. and J.T. Cacioppo (1981
Page 237 and 238: Shimp, T.A. (1990). Promoti
Page 239 and 240: Van Trijp, H.C.M. and J.B.E.M. Stee
Page 241 and 242: Winer, R.S., Bucklin, R.E., Deighto
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APPENDIX A4: Research Overview Tabl
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Table A4.1 continued Article Promot
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� Size of munici
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Table A7.1 continued Symbol Descrip
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Table A7.2: Data legitimacy check (
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Table A7.3: Results binary logistic
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Table A7.4: Results interacting wit
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Table A7.5: Results age and size no
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Table A7.5 continued Variable B S.E
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Table A8.1 continued Impulse BS TA
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Table A8.2 continued Number <strong
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Table A8.3: Relative occurrence and
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Figure A8.2: Decomposing total prom
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interessante aanbieding is. Combina
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aantalmerken in een categorie en im
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ERASMUS RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MANAG
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Title: Beyond Generics;A closer loo
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Title: Planning and Control Concept
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