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Analysis of Sales Promotion Effects on Household Purchase Behavior

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Table 8.10: Unit-sales decompositi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> extra promoti<strong>on</strong>al sales<br />

Product<br />

category<br />

Change in purchase<br />

time (TA)<br />

Brand switching<br />

(BS)<br />

S<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>t drinks 0.46 0.41 0.14<br />

Fruit juice 0.62 0.27 0.10<br />

C<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fee 0.52 0.43 0.06<br />

Potato chips 0.62 0.20 0.17<br />

Candy bars 0.69 0.30 0.01<br />

Pasta 0.55 0.45 0.00<br />

Overall 0.53 0.37 0.10<br />

Change in purchase<br />

quantity (QP)<br />

Overall, the findings presented in Table 8.10 are comparable to the results obtained by Van<br />

Heerde et al. (2001). We find that 37 percent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the increase in promoti<strong>on</strong>al unit sales is due<br />

to drawing current c<strong>on</strong>sumers from competitive brands, where Van Heerde et al. (2001) report<br />

an overall percentage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 35 percent. The tendency is clear: brand switch effects are much<br />

smaller than what the elasticity decompositi<strong>on</strong> literature suggests. The purchase timing effect<br />

accounts for <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> about 1/2 <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the total effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> promoti<strong>on</strong>s <strong>on</strong> the increase in promoti<strong>on</strong>al unit<br />

sales. The quantity effect accounts for about 10 percent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the increase in promoti<strong>on</strong>al unit<br />

sales. In total, this indicates that in general, promoti<strong>on</strong>s are very effective in drawing future<br />

purchases to the promoti<strong>on</strong>al shopping trip, either resulting in stockpiling and/or c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong><br />

increases (about 2/3 <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the total effect). The effectiveness <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drawing current c<strong>on</strong>sumers from<br />

competitive brands is less effective (1/3 <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the total effect).<br />

Differences between categories are found. The strength <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the brand switch effect<br />

varies between 20 percent for potato chips promoti<strong>on</strong>s up to more than 40 percent for s<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>t<br />

drink, c<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fee, and pasta promoti<strong>on</strong>s. But, despite differences found between the categories, the<br />

c<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong>s drawn by Van Heerde et al. (2001) are supported in this research. The effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

promoti<strong>on</strong>s <strong>on</strong> brand switching are by far less important than what has been claimed by prior<br />

studies using the elasticity based decompositi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> incremental promoti<strong>on</strong>al sales. So,<br />

promoti<strong>on</strong>s are more attractive for retailers than what has been assumed based <strong>on</strong> those<br />

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