Statistical Analysis of Trends in the Red River Over a 45 Year Period

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Acknowledgments There have been many contributions by various individuals that led to the completion of this project. I would like to thank Drs. Brad Johnson (principal investigator), John Brewster (co-investigator) and Liqun Wang (co-investigator) of the Department of Statistics, University of Manitoba; Dr. Gordon Goldsborough (co-investigator), Canadian representative, International Red River Board, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba; and Dr. Brian Parker, Aquatic Ecosystems Scientist, Environment Canada. Also, a very special and sincere thankyou goes out to Aldo Vecchia of the United States Geological Survey for all his invaluable support and assistance and to Nicole Armstrong of the Manitoba Water Stewardship for all her help with the provincial data. Thank you to Dr. David Donald for serving as the scientific authority of this project and of course a final thank you to the International Joint Commission for funding this project. xvii
Chapter 1 Introduction The Red River of the North is formed by the confluence of the Bois de Sioux and Otter Tail Rivers in the United States. It flows northward through the Red River Valley and forms the border between the states of Minnesota and North Dakota before continuing into Manitoba, Canada, and finally discharging into Lake Winnipeg (Figure 1.1). Along its path, the Red River flows through Greater Grand Forks and Fargo, in the United States, and through Winnipeg in Canada. The Canadian portion of the Red River is about 249 km long, while the US portion is approximately 636 km in length. The river falls 70 m on its trip to Lake Winnipeg where it spreads into the vast deltaic wetland known as Netley Marsh. The entire Red River Basin encompasses 287,500 square kilometers of rich agricultural lands, forests, wetlands, and prairies and contains numerous lakes. Statistical evaluation of trends in water quality data over the 45-year period of record is useful for assessing effects of the variation in precipitation in the Red River and the impact that landscape runoff has on water quality. Changes in the Red River water quality have a direct bearing on Lake Winnipeg into which it discharges; the eutrophication of Lake Winnipeg is a research priority for Environment Canada and the Manitoba Water Stewardship. This report, which focuses on three water quality monitoring stations along the Red River, presents results of trend analysis using parametric methods devel- 1
Page 1 and 2: Statistical Analysis of Trends in t
Page 3 and 4: 5 Comparison of Non-Parametric and
Page 5 and 6: List of Figures 1.1 The Red River B
Page 7 and 8: A.8 Boxplot of Specific Conductance
Page 9 and 10: A.41 Dissolved Calcium Flow Adjustm
Page 11 and 12: A.67 Dissolved Sulphate Flow Adjust
Page 13 and 14: A.93 Specific Conductance Flow Adju
Page 15 and 16: Mann-Kendall or Seasonal Mann-Kenda
Page 17: Using ancillary data, data obtained
Page 21 and 22: oped by Aldo Vecchia (United States
Page 23 and 24: Chapter 2 Streamflow Data and Conce
Page 25 and 26: Table 2.1: Selected characteristics
Page 27 and 28: of testing for seasonality. If it y
Page 29 and 30: Table 2.3: Sample size of stations
Page 31 and 32: Figure 3.1: Mean monthly streamflow
Page 33 and 34: v.1.56. CAS# n/a WQStat Plus TM BOX
Page 35 and 36: concentrations of major anions and
Page 37 and 38: Table 3.3: Kruskal-Wallis test for
Page 39 and 40: The N ′ individual slope estimate
Page 41 and 42: As most parameters consistently exh
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.4: Seasonal Mann-Kendall Te
Page 45 and 46: Chapter 4 Parametric Methods used f
Page 47 and 48: log denotes the base-10 logarithm;
Page 49 and 50: Figure 4.1: Daily Streamflow at Eme
Page 51 and 52: Figures 4.3-4.8 depict the recorded
Page 53 and 54: 1 1 CONCENTR CONCENTR 1955 1960 196
Page 55 and 56: Table 4.1: Fitted Single Linear Tre
Page 57 and 58: Chapter 5 Comparison of Non-Paramet
Page 59 and 60: 5.2 Future Recommendations First an
Page 61 and 62: • Uses full power of the maximum
Page 63 and 64: Hamed, Khaled.,; 2008, Trend Detect
Page 65 and 66: Appendix A Figures A.1 Boxplots of
Page 67 and 68: v.1.56. CAS# n/a WQStat Plus TM BOX
Page 69 and 70:
Figure A.7: Boxplot of Total Dissol
Page 71 and 72:
v.1.56. CAS# n/a WQStat Plus BOX &
Page 73 and 74:
Figure A.13: Seasonality pattern of
Page 75 and 76:
A.3 Non-Parametric Trend Results Th
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Figure A.19: Long term temporal tre
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
A.4 Parametric Trend Results The fo
Page 87 and 88:
Figure A.31: Dissolved Sodium at Em
Page 89 and 90:
Figure A.33: Dissolved Magnesium at
Page 91 and 92:
Figure A.35: Dissolved Chloride at
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Figure A.37: Specific Conductance a
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05102500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AT
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1 1 CONCENTR CONCENTR 500 RED RIVER
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CONCENTR 500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
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CONCENTR ● CONCENTR 0 0 1955 1960
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CONCENTR CONCENTR 00 RED RIVER OF T
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CONCENTR 1 1.5 ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !
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CONCENTR 0.5 1 ! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! !
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Page 115 and 116:
CONCENTR ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
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CONCENTR ! CONCENTR 2 2 1955 1960 1
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A.5.2 South Floodway at St. Norbert
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CONCENT ! CONCENT 2 2 floodway dspc
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A.5.3 Selkirk Monitoring Station 10
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CONCENT ! CONCENT 2 2 selkirk dspc
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Statistical Analysis of Trends in the Red River Over a 45 Year Period

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