Statistical Analysis of Trends in the Red River Over a 45 Year Period

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1 1 CONCENTR CONCENTR 500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AT EMERSON, MANITOBA dcalc 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 POINTS: SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND FLOW!ADJUSTED DATA LINE: TREND 1955 1960 196 + TREND ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 1995 2000 2005 2010 ! CONCENTRATION, CONCENTRATION, AS BASE!10 BASE!10 LOGARITHM LOGARITHM 1 1 1.5 1.5 2 2 2.5 2.5 POINTS: SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND DETRENDED DATA LINE: ANNUAL STREAMFLOW!RELATED ANOMALY ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ! !! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! !! ! !! !! ! !! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! !! !!!! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! !! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! !! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! !! !!!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Figure 4.7: Emerson: Dissolved Calcium Flow Adjustments — Seasonally adjusted 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 and flow adjusted data (points) and single trend (line). ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! RESIDUAL !4 !3 !2 !1 0 1 2 3 4 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! 1955 1960 196 ! ! ! ! ! ! DJUSTED DATA POINTS: PARMA MODEL RESIDUALS LINE: LOWESS SMOOTH WITH F= 0.5 ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 1995 2000 2005 2010 ! RESIDUAL !4 !3 !2 !1 0 1 2 3 4 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Figure 4.8: Emerson: Dissolved Calcium Flow Adjustments — Parametric single trend model residuals (points) and lowess smooth line with F = 0.5. 36
Table 4.1: Fitted Single Linear Trends at the Emerson Station est. std. time Constituent % change coef. error p-value period Dissolved Calcium 4.7 0.020 1.632 can’t determine 1960-2007 Dissolved Sodium 47.9 0.170 6.401 < 0.001 1960-2007 Dissolved Potassium 32.7 0.123 7.279 < 0.001 1960-2007 Dissolved Magnesium 21.1 0.083 4.190 < 0.001 1975-2007 Dissolved Sulphate 52.5 0.183 6.363 can’t determine 1960-2007 Dissolved Chloride 39.0 0.143 3.439 0.001 1960-2007 Total Dissolved Solids 43.2 0.183 6.363 < 0.001 1985-2007 Specific Conductance 28.8 0.110 6.974 0.001 1960-2007 of time where no data was collected as seen in the top graph of Figure A.33 thus the trend was fitted on the data from 1975 to 2007 which yielded a significant 21.1% increase in median concentration. Total dissolved solids significantly increased 43.2% from 1985-2007. Dissolved chloride and specific conductance both had significant increasing trends from 1960-2007 at 39.0% and 28.8% respectively with p-values of 0.001. Dissolved sulphate also had a 52.4% increase in median concentration from 1960-2007, however, a single linear trend is not an appropriate measure for this constituent. After closer examination of the residual plots it can be seen for dissolved calcium and dissolved potassium seem to exhibit three monotonic trends; a slight increase from 1960-1970 a slight decline until 1983 and then increase again to 2007. The trend for was examined from 1975 and shows a decrease until 1983 and then proceeds to increase through to 2007. Total dissolved solids also show three different monotonic trends, an increase from 1982-1992 then a slight decrease until 1999 and then increase again until 2007. Similarly for dissolved sodium and dissolved sulphate, after examining the residual plots of those constituents, there seem to be two monotonic trends. It can be seen that there is a decrease from 1960 until 1977 and then increases until 2007. The purpose of this report is to compare the results 37
Page 1 and 2:
Statistical Analysis of Trends in t
Page 3 and 4: 5 Comparison of Non-Parametric and
Page 5 and 6: List of Figures 1.1 The Red River B
Page 7 and 8: A.8 Boxplot of Specific Conductance
Page 9 and 10: A.41 Dissolved Calcium Flow Adjustm
Page 11 and 12: A.67 Dissolved Sulphate Flow Adjust
Page 13 and 14: A.93 Specific Conductance Flow Adju
Page 15 and 16: Mann-Kendall or Seasonal Mann-Kenda
Page 17 and 18: Using ancillary data, data obtained
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 1 Introduction The Red Rive
Page 21 and 22: oped by Aldo Vecchia (United States
Page 23 and 24: Chapter 2 Streamflow Data and Conce
Page 25 and 26: Table 2.1: Selected characteristics
Page 27 and 28: of testing for seasonality. If it y
Page 29 and 30: Table 2.3: Sample size of stations
Page 31 and 32: Figure 3.1: Mean monthly streamflow
Page 33 and 34: v.1.56. CAS# n/a WQStat Plus TM BOX
Page 35 and 36: concentrations of major anions and
Page 37 and 38: Table 3.3: Kruskal-Wallis test for
Page 39 and 40: The N ′ individual slope estimate
Page 41 and 42: As most parameters consistently exh
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.4: Seasonal Mann-Kendall Te
Page 45 and 46: Chapter 4 Parametric Methods used f
Page 47 and 48: log denotes the base-10 logarithm;
Page 49 and 50: Figure 4.1: Daily Streamflow at Eme
Page 51 and 52: Figures 4.3-4.8 depict the recorded
Page 53: 1 1 CONCENTR CONCENTR 1955 1960 196
Page 57 and 58: Chapter 5 Comparison of Non-Paramet
Page 59 and 60: 5.2 Future Recommendations First an
Page 61 and 62: • Uses full power of the maximum
Page 63 and 64: Hamed, Khaled.,; 2008, Trend Detect
Page 65 and 66: Appendix A Figures A.1 Boxplots of
Page 67 and 68: v.1.56. CAS# n/a WQStat Plus TM BOX
Page 69 and 70: Figure A.7: Boxplot of Total Dissol
Page 71 and 72: v.1.56. CAS# n/a WQStat Plus BOX &
Page 73 and 74: Figure A.13: Seasonality pattern of
Page 75 and 76: A.3 Non-Parametric Trend Results Th
Page 77 and 78: Figure A.19: Long term temporal tre
Page 85 and 86: A.4 Parametric Trend Results The fo
Page 87 and 88: Figure A.31: Dissolved Sodium at Em
Page 89 and 90: Figure A.33: Dissolved Magnesium at
Page 91 and 92: Figure A.35: Dissolved Chloride at
Page 93 and 94: Figure A.37: Specific Conductance a
Page 95 and 96: 05102500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AT
Page 97 and 98: 1 1 CONCENTR CONCENTR 500 RED RIVER
Page 99 and 100: CONCENTR 500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
Page 101 and 102: 05102500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AT
Page 103 and 104: CONCENTR ● CONCENTR 0 0 1955 1960
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CONCENTR CONCENTR 00 RED RIVER OF T
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05102500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AT
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CONCENTR 1 1.5 ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !
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CONCENTR 0.5 1 ! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! !
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05102500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AT
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CONCENTR ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
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CONCENTR ! CONCENTR 2 2 1955 1960 1
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A.5.2 South Floodway at St. Norbert
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CONCENT ! CONCENT 2 2 floodway dspc
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A.5.3 Selkirk Monitoring Station 10
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CONCENT ! CONCENT 2 2 selkirk dspc
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Statistical Analysis of Trends in the Red River Over a 45 Year Period

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