Statistical Analysis of Trends in the Red River Over a 45 Year Period

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Figure 4.2: Dissolved Calcium at Emerson (log 10 mg/l) 32
Figures 4.3–4.8 depict the recorded data of dissolved Calcium and the Emerson monitoring station, seasonally adjusted and de-trended data, the seasonally adjusted and flow-adjusted data and the PARMA model residuals and a line showing the lowess smooth. The plots of the remaining constituents for the rest of the constituents and stations can be seen in the appendix. 4.1 Generalized Likelihood Ratio To compute the overall significance of the fitted trend model we are testing the null hypothesis that there is no trend versus the alternate hypothesis that at least one trend coefficient is non-zero. The p-value of the test follows a chi-square distribution with k degrees of freedom, where k is the number of trend functions. The no trend model was initially fitted for the Emerson station constituents, a single linear trend was then fitted for all constituents and upon closer examination of the residuals it can be seen that dissolved sodium and dissolved sulphate exhibit two monotonic trends, dissolved chloride and specific conductance exhibit a single monotonic trend while the remaining constituents show three monotonic trends. Also given is the percent change in the median of the flow-adjusted concentration trend line over the period of reporting. The reason we use the percent change in the median rather than the mean is due to the fact that the fitted trend is derived from the log 10 transformed data. Table 4.1 shows the results of fitting a single linear trend model to the data from the Emerson monitoring station. For each of the eight constituents considered, the percent change is calculated as (10 x − 1) ∗ 100, where x is the estimated coefficient. For the Emerson station there was a 4.7% increase in the median concentration of dissolved calcium between 1960 and 2007 however, the value of the log likelihood is slightly greater than that of the no-trend model so the significance of this trend can not be computed. For dissolved sodium and dissolved potassium constituents there was a 47.9% and a 32.7% respective significant increase from 1960-2007. Dissolved magnesium did not meet the all the requirements of QWTREND, there is a period 33
Page 1 and 2: Statistical Analysis of Trends in t
Page 3 and 4: 5 Comparison of Non-Parametric and
Page 5 and 6: List of Figures 1.1 The Red River B
Page 7 and 8: A.8 Boxplot of Specific Conductance
Page 9 and 10: A.41 Dissolved Calcium Flow Adjustm
Page 11 and 12: A.67 Dissolved Sulphate Flow Adjust
Page 13 and 14: A.93 Specific Conductance Flow Adju
Page 15 and 16: Mann-Kendall or Seasonal Mann-Kenda
Page 17 and 18: Using ancillary data, data obtained
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 1 Introduction The Red Rive
Page 21 and 22: oped by Aldo Vecchia (United States
Page 23 and 24: Chapter 2 Streamflow Data and Conce
Page 25 and 26: Table 2.1: Selected characteristics
Page 27 and 28: of testing for seasonality. If it y
Page 29 and 30: Table 2.3: Sample size of stations
Page 31 and 32: Figure 3.1: Mean monthly streamflow
Page 33 and 34: v.1.56. CAS# n/a WQStat Plus TM BOX
Page 35 and 36: concentrations of major anions and
Page 37 and 38: Table 3.3: Kruskal-Wallis test for
Page 39 and 40: The N ′ individual slope estimate
Page 41 and 42: As most parameters consistently exh
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.4: Seasonal Mann-Kendall Te
Page 45 and 46: Chapter 4 Parametric Methods used f
Page 47 and 48: log denotes the base-10 logarithm;
Page 49: Figure 4.1: Daily Streamflow at Eme
Page 53 and 54: 1 1 CONCENTR CONCENTR 1955 1960 196
Page 55 and 56: Table 4.1: Fitted Single Linear Tre
Page 57 and 58: Chapter 5 Comparison of Non-Paramet
Page 59 and 60: 5.2 Future Recommendations First an
Page 61 and 62: • Uses full power of the maximum
Page 63 and 64: Hamed, Khaled.,; 2008, Trend Detect
Page 65 and 66: Appendix A Figures A.1 Boxplots of
Page 67 and 68: v.1.56. CAS# n/a WQStat Plus TM BOX
Page 69 and 70: Figure A.7: Boxplot of Total Dissol
Page 71 and 72: v.1.56. CAS# n/a WQStat Plus BOX &
Page 73 and 74: Figure A.13: Seasonality pattern of
Page 75 and 76: A.3 Non-Parametric Trend Results Th
Page 77 and 78: Figure A.19: Long term temporal tre
Page 85 and 86: A.4 Parametric Trend Results The fo
Page 87 and 88: Figure A.31: Dissolved Sodium at Em
Page 89 and 90: Figure A.33: Dissolved Magnesium at
Page 91 and 92: Figure A.35: Dissolved Chloride at
Page 93 and 94: Figure A.37: Specific Conductance a
Page 95 and 96: 05102500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AT
Page 97 and 98: 1 1 CONCENTR CONCENTR 500 RED RIVER
Page 99 and 100: CONCENTR 500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
Page 101 and 102:
05102500 RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AT
Page 103 and 104:
CONCENTR ● CONCENTR 0 0 1955 1960
Page 105 and 106:
CONCENTR CONCENTR 00 RED RIVER OF T
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
CONCENTR 1 1.5 ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !
Page 111 and 112:
CONCENTR 0.5 1 ! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! !
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
CONCENTR ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Page 117 and 118:
CONCENTR ! CONCENTR 2 2 1955 1960 1
Page 119 and 120:
A.5.2 South Floodway at St. Norbert
Page 121 and 122:
CONCENT ! CONCENT 2 2 floodway dspc
Page 123 and 124:
A.5.3 Selkirk Monitoring Station 10
Page 125 and 126:
CONCENT ! CONCENT 2 2 selkirk dspc
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Statistical Analysis of Trends in the Red River Over a 45 Year Period

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