3.0 Affected Environment - Knik Arm Bridge and Toll Authority

Knik Arm Crossing DraftFinal EIS
Affected Environment
Table 3-10. The last three reports have also provided estimates for 2030. The 1996, 2001,
and 2004 projections were prepared for CEA, which uses the projections for utility planning.
The 1999 and 2003 projections were prepared for the Municipality of Anchorage as input to
the Anchorage 2020 comprehensive planning process (2001a) and the Municipality’s longrange
transportation planning process (2003). The 2005 projection was prepared for
KABATA for this Draft EIS.
Table 3-10. Employment projections for Anchorage
Year
2020 Employment (000s)
forecast
prepared Anchorage Mat-Su Region
1996 163.8 19.4 183.2
1999 172.9 18.3 191.2
2001 160.3 20.7 181.0
2003 160.4 20.6 181.0
2004 159.1 26.6 185.7
2005 164.7 34.7 199.4
2030 Employment (000s)
2003 178.0 27.1 205.1
2004 181.1 39.1 220.2
2005 181.8 50.0 231.8
Sources: Goldsmith, 1996, 2001, 2004; ISER 2005; MOA 2001a;
MOA 2003
The employment forecasts have varied over time as economic conditions, assumptions, and
perceptions about future economic activity have changed. Regional employment projections
for 2030 have increased over the years, and the 2005 projection anticipates development in
the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and a natural gas pipeline to the North American market,
which would contribute to higher employment estimates than forecast in prior years. In the
more recent projections, ISER has recognized and incorporated in the model the trend of an
increasing Mat-Su share of regional population and employment growth. Anchorage
employment projections made in 2005 for 2020 and 2030 are up slightly over earlier
estimates, but 2020 and 2030 employment projections for the Mat-Su are up substantially.
The 2004 projections also anticipate that the Mat-Su would account for a larger share of
employment in 2030.
3.4.1.1 Employment and output by industry sector
The relative importance of various economic sectors in the Mat-Su and Anchorage can be
described using estimates of employment and gross output (sales). Employment by industry
sector in 2004 is shown for the Mat-Su and Anchorage in Table 3-11, and further described
in Appendix C of the Land Use and Transportation Forecast Technical Report
(KABATA 2006b). Government is the predominant employment sector in the Mat-Su and
Anchorage, accounting for 21 percent of jobs in the Mat-Su and over 20 percent of jobs in
Anchorage. The local school district, a component of the government sector, is the top
employer in both the Mat-Su and Anchorage.
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