GCOS Implementation Plan - WMO

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Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update) dynamic range to avoid sensor saturation. Active fires should be detected from Low Earth Orbit satellites multiple times per day, with one of the measurements being located near the peak of the daily fire cycle, and their FRP should be calculated. Some geostationary satellites allow active fire and FRP data generation at coarser spatial resolutions as rapidly as every 15 minutes to provide the best sampling of the fire diurnal cycle that may be required for certain applications (e.g., for temporal integration of FRP data to estimate total carbon emissions; and to link to atmospheric chemistry models/observations). The various space-based products require validation and inter-comparison. Validation of medium- and coarse-resolution fire products involves field observations and the use of high-resolution imagery, in collaboration with local fire management organizations and the research community. The CEOS WGCV, working with the GOFC-GOLD, is establishing internationally-agreed validation protocols that should be applied to all datasets before their release. A fully stratified sampling scheme (designated CEOS level 3) that adequately represents the nature of fire activity over the globe is needed. The validation protocol for burned area products, based on multi-temporal higher resolution reference imagery, is mature and has been documented. The active fire validation protocol requires simultaneous high resolution airborne or satellite imagery, which is not readily available except for the single-platform Terra MODIS/ASTER configuration. Therefore, an effective active fire and FRP validation protocol is still under development. TOPC will work with the CEOS WGCV and GOFC-GOLD to establish an International Data Centre of validation data for product development. The transition of experimental fire products to the operational domain needs to be facilitated. Data continuity to the new generation sensors on future operational environmental satellite series needs to be ensured, and products need to be inter-compared and combined to provide best estimates of total fuel consumption, together with uncertainties over long time scales. Action T35 [IP-04 T32] Action: Reanalyse the historical fire disturbance satellite data (1982 to present). Who: Space agencies, working with research groups coordinated by GOFC-GOLD. Time-Frame: By 2012. Performance Indicator: Establishment of a consistent dataset, including the globally available 1 km AVHRR data record. Annual Cost Implications: 1-10M US$ (Mainly by Annex-I Parties). Action T36 [IP-04 T33] Action: Continue generation of consistent burnt area, active fire, and FRP products from low orbit satellites, including version intercomparisons to allow un-biased, long-term record development. Who: Space agencies, in collaboration with GOFC-GOLD. Time-Frame: Continuous. Performance Indicator: Availability of data. Annual Cost Implications: 1-10M US$ (Mainly by Annex-I Parties). Action T37 [IP-04 T34] Action: Develop and apply validation protocol to fire disturbance data. Who: Space agencies and research organizations. Time-Frame: By 2012. Performance Indicator: Publication of accuracy statistics. Annual Cost Implications: 1-10M US$ (Mainly by Annex-I Parties Action T38 [IP-04 T35] Action: Make gridded burnt area, active fire, and FRP products available through links from a single International Data Portal. Who: Coordinated through GOFC-GOLD. Time-Frame: Continuous. Performance Indicator: Continued operation of the GFMC and the development of the Data Portal. Annual Cost Implications:
Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update) Action T39 Action: Develop set of active fire and FRP products from the global suite of operational geostationary satellites. Who: Through operators of geostationary systems, via CGMS, GSICS, and GOFC-GOLD. Time-Frame: Continuous. Performance Indicator: Availability of products. Annual Cost Implications: 1-10M US$ (Mainly by Annex-I Parties). 6.3. Terrestrial Domain – Data Management and Reanalysis Terrestrial Reanalysis As in other fields of science, and most prominently in the atmospheric sciences, data assimilation and reanalysis techniques have taken on a prominent role in offering a practical way to ensure the consistency between the various products that are being generated. This is achieved by explicitly taking into account the degree of uncertainty associated with models (which are always simplified representations of reality), a priori estimates, and input data (which are always observed or measured with a finite accuracy). The techniques developed by atmospheric scientists and other geophysicists are now being applied to the analysis of satellite data over land (including land interactions with the atmosphere) and permit the retrieval of products such as the components of the surface carbon cycle or albedo, in such a way that the accuracy of the resulting product is documented as part of the procedure. This approach helps determine objectively the respective contributions of both models and data, the optimal ways to improve the observing system to increase the accuracy of the results, and naturally generates products that are much easier to incorporate in larger models (e.g., climate models). In the near future, it is likely that multiple land surface products (e.g., albedo and FAPAR) will be jointly retrieved through such procedures, thereby ensuring that they are all mutually consistent. The reprocessing of existing satellite remote-sensing archives with these advanced tools should thus be encouraged, especially in the context of (or perhaps in advance of) large-scale reanalysis exercises over multiple decades. It is recommended that a review of the state of the art in land surface albedo (LSA) estimation from space measurements be made in coordination with AOPC/TOPC to begin the reanalysis of existing datasets by including the following tasks: • Benchmark existing products (continuation and extension of the initial effort to compare Meteosat, MODIS, and MISR LSA products), both in space and time, and propose ways and means to merge such products to generate truly global products with adequate coverage in Polar Regions. • Investigate the compatibility between albedo products derived from bi-directional reflectance observations acquired by sensors on geostationary and polar-orbiting platforms. • Evaluate the factors affecting the quality of LSA products and, in particular, their dependency on related atmospheric products (e.g., clouds and aerosols). • Investigate the drawbacks, limitations, and obstacles that have prevented the effective use of these albedo products in General Circulation Models (GCMs) and recommend ways to address these issues. • Promote sensitivity studies and other appropriate projects aimed at documenting the role and impact of LSA products in climate models, with a view to establishing precise requirements for the characteristics of this product. This approach could also very usefully be applied in the case of the soil moisture ECV. A number of land assimilation projects have assessed soil moisture on a global scale, such as the Global Soil Wetness Project (http://www.iges.org/gswp/). These projects have produced significant apparent differences between model outputs but show similar variations from year to year in model projections. Therefore it appears that there are systematic differences in the projections that are computer-model dependent. Reanalysis of in situ and satellite data integrated into Earth-system dynamic models could improve our understanding of soil moisture observations and model projections. 129
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION I
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FOREWORD This 2010 Update of the Im
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