GCOS Implementation Plan - WMO

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Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update) Achieving the range of analyses required for each ECV is a priority near-term objective. Actions on individual variables are noted below in sections 4, 5, and 6. Efforts should continue to promote an increase in the number of ECVs for which integrated products are being generated and improved, through coordinating actions by national and regional centres and programmes and by the intergovernmental organizations, within the over-all framework of GEOSS. Active research programmes to develop the tools necessary to produce climate-quality integrated analyses will be required for some ECVs (see sections 3.9, 4.6, 5.5 and 6.4). 3.5.2. Reanalysis based on Data Assimilation Data assimilation, applied in real time and in reanalysis, is another method of generating integrated products. It exploits the physical relationships among a number of the variables and thus uses many of the available types of observations. Data assimilation reanalysis is an increasingly powerful tool that has already provided comprehensive pictures of the climate system. Because an adequate observational record for global three dimensional reanalysis extends from about 1957 for atmospheric circulation variables, and from the 1980s at best for some atmospheric composition variables, the main success of real-time data assimilation and reanalysis to date has been on the relatively shortterm variability of the atmosphere rather than on long-term climate trends of the Essential Climate Variables. The latter places particular demands on the reanalysis systems and on the observational data that are ingested, and although success is increasingly being achieved, much remains to be done. Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis activities include some climate-oriented efforts that show promising results and are now moving toward coupled data assimilation. Terrestrial activities have begun but need further development of modelling infrastructure, historical data and institutional engagement. Coupled reanalyses (atmosphere-ocean, atmosphere-land, ocean-sea ice, and fully coupled climate system reanalyses) should provide more consistent fluxes, e.g., carbon fluxes, between domains, but are still a research activity (see section 1.4 on Earth system cycles). Although the quality of reanalyses is at present insufficient for a number of climate applications, there are good reasons to be optimistic. Improvements have been realised in bias corrections of both observations and models, but a major challenge remains to deal with the changing observing system, which adds considerable uncertainty to decadal and longer-term variability from reanalyses. As part of an internationally-coordinated effort, there is a need for a small number of reanalysis centres with adequate staff and data processing, to prepare integrated climate products in a sustained way. Desirably, reanalyses should be staggered and take advantage of lessons learned from previous endeavours, but at present, reanalyses occur in a research domain with funds that come episodically and somewhat opportunistically. It is also essential to recognise and address the need to adequately vet and evaluate the new reanalyses (cf. Action C9). A more balanced and sustained reanalysis activity is desirable. The international reanalysis programme should give priority to: (a) extending current atmospheric reanalysis activities to meet requirements for monitoring climate variability and trends; (b) consolidating and extending ocean data assimilation research activities by building on the outcome of Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) and ongoing and developing WCRP efforts to establish ocean reanalyses for the recent satellite era and for longer, paralleling atmospheric reanalysis periods; (c) establishing and further developing products relating to the composition and forcing of the climate system, (d) developing the high resolution land reanalyses required to account for the heterogeneity of the land surface, and (e) coupled climate reanalyses. Regional reanalyses in the atmosphere and ocean have been undertaken and more are in progress. These provide much higher resolution and focus on certain aspects of the system, such as the hydrological cycle or the Arctic, and can be used to satisfy some requirements of applications communities. Reanalyses can also be used as boundary conditions for regional high resolution models which provide local information to better assess impacts of climate variations and change. A promising new type of reanalysis based solely on surface observations, and sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperature observations in particular, is becoming established with a goal to provide over 100 years of reanalyses along with uncertainty estimates. In the Northern Hemisphere, such reanalyses should provide useful descriptions of the atmospheric circulation and a physically consistent set of atmospheric variables dating from before 1900. The products provide a basis for carrying out checks of the consistency of unused data such as early radiosondes, enabling derivation of homogenisation adjustments. 36
Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update) The outputs of the reanalysis programme will have wide use and should be made easily available to the user community. This includes estimates of the quality of both the resulting analyses and the data used. Although reanalysis can enable value to be derived from a wide range of comprehensive data sources, a climate-quality reanalysis is best when the data sources include a significant fraction of data adhering to the GCMPs. The identified GCOS networks in the atmosphere and the networks of drifting buoys and sub-surface floats in the ocean are critical in this respect. Making national holdings of historical data available to the International Data Centres is an essential requirement for the effective conduct of reanalysis. Continued development of the datasets for reanalyses, such as within the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) collaborative initiative, should also be part of an ongoing activity The GCOS Steering Committee, Panels and Secretariat will work with the respective technical commissions and international research programmes to foster coordinated production by the reanalysis centres. In addition, the GCOS/GTOS/WCRP Terrestrial Observation Panel for Climate (TOPC) and the GCOS/GOOS/WCRP Ocean Observations Panel for Climate (OOPC) will continue to encourage continuation of pilot projects and associated research on ocean and terrestrial data assimilation. Finally, the International Data Centres, including the World Data Centres (WDCs), should continue to work with the responsible technical commissions and research programmes to ensure the provision of historical datasets including metadata to internationally-mandated archives for inclusion in reanalysis programmes. The Joint Steering Committee for the WCRP and the GCOS Steering Committee (through the WCRP/GCOS Observations and Assimilation Panel (WOAP) and the GCOS/WCRP Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate (AOPC)) have jointly established a working group to enable exactly this task for atmospheric data (cf. Appendix 5). Action C10 [IP-04 C11] Action: Prepare the atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial and cryospheric datasets and metadata, including historic data records, for climate analyses and reanalyses. Who: Parties with Data Centres (e.g., WDCs), working together with technical commissions and the scientific community, especially the joint WOAP/AOPC Working Group on Observational Datasets for Reanalysis and the ACRE collaborative initiative. Time-Frame: Now and ongoing. Performance Indicator: New or improved datasets available for analysis or reanalysis. Annual Cost Implications: Covered in domains. Action C11 [IP-04 C12] Action: Establish sustainable systems for the routine and regular analysis of the ECVs, as appropriate and feasible, including measures of uncertainty. Who: Parties sponsoring internationally-designated analysis activities, with guidance from WCRP, IGBP and IPCC. Time-Frame: Now and ongoing Performance Indicator: Quality and range of analyses of the ECVs. Annual Cost Implications: Covered in domains. Action C12 [IP-04 C13] Action: Establish a sustained capacity for global climate reanalysis and ensure coordination and collaboration among reanalysis centres. Who: National and international agencies. Time-Frame: Continue ongoing activity but with climate trends better addressed by 2014, and expansion into coupled reanalysis by 2016. Performance Indicator: Reanalysis centres endowed with long-term and coordinated programmes; cyclical flow of products of improving quality and widening range. Annual Cost Implications: 10-30M (Mainly Annex-I Parties) 3.6. Early Instrumental Data and Proxy Reconstructions of Past Climates This Plan focuses primarily on the need to improve ongoing observation of climate variables. However, there is a need to extend these records backwards in time, both for analysis and reanalysis purposes. Analysis of past variations and changes in climate is an essential part of interpreting current records of climate. The existence of long records allows: 37
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GCOS Implementation Plan - WMO

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