GCOS Implementation Plan - WMO

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Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update) Network or System International Data Centres and Archives Coordinating Body WMO GAW GCOS Global Baseline Profile Ozone Network, WMO GAW GCOS Global Baseline Total Ozone Network, NDACC Aerosols and Precursors: AERONET GAW baseline network GALION World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) (European Commission) Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) Archive Norwegian Institute for Air Research Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ – NASA) Archive World Data Centre for Aerosols (NILU) WMO CAS WMO CAS Open access to both in situ and satellite data is a key aspect of quality assurance, and further work is required to ensure that these data and associated metadata are available in standardised formats for analysis by all interested groups. Cross-cutting data management Actions C18, C19, C20 and C21 are especially applicable in this regard. 4.5. Atmospheric Domain – Integrated Global Analysis Products Although single-source data from networks or satellites contributing to GCOS can be used as indicators of the state of the global climate system, more comprehensive analyses often depend upon combining data from different sources. In particular, satellite data providing global coverage integrated with in situ observations can remove biases and ensure consistency over land and ocean. An example is the difficulty in obtaining unbiased estimates of global precipitation due to the relative lack of in situ precipitation observations over the oceans. Reanalysis provides a particular means to generate a range of integrated global products in the atmospheric domain, particularly for the upper atmosphere where a wide variety of in situ and satellite data can be used to produce very detailed analyses. Comprehensive reanalyses of the meteorological ECVs have been undertaken by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). Input data for reanalysis have been assembled by the reanalysis community with the assistance of the archive, monitoring and research community. Establishing formal cooperative arrangements between the centres in Europe, USA and Japan that carry out global reanalyses would allow each successive reanalysis to build more completely on the datasets and results of the previous ones. Actions in section 4.3 have addressed the need to monitor the detailed regional and temporal distribution of the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs and aerosols, especially over the continents. In addition, research on global data assimilation methods is needed to achieve optimal global analyses of the ECVs and estimates of sources and sinks, especially of carbon dioxide and methane. Actions C10, C11 and C12 in section 3.5 on the preparation of datasets for reanalysis and on sustaining analysis systems must encompass the atmospheric composition ECVs. Data assimilation for atmospheric composition variables is far less mature than for the meteorological variables, but significant progress has been made in Europe in the development of atmospheric services under the auspices of the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) initiative. There is a need for observational data for atmospheric composition ECVs to be assembled as input data for reanalysis and for evaluating climate models (see Actions C10 and C11). 4.6. Atmospheric Domain – Scientific and Technological Challenges While there are well-established techniques for monitoring and analyzing most of the atmospheric ECVs, for many there remain outstanding issues requiring research. These include: • Characterisation of the three-dimensional spatial and temporal distribution of cloud properties, and the relationship with moisture and wind fields; 72
Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update) • Global monitoring of the composition and distribution of aerosols and their precursors, and linked observation of aerosol and cloud for study of their interactions; • Global monitoring of water vapour especially at the surface and in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and linked observation of water vapour and cloud, especially for deep convection; • Unbiased estimation of high temporal resolution precipitation amount and type, especially over the oceans, over high latitudes and over areas of complex orography; • Combination of in situ and space-based measurements of greenhouse gases in reanalysis and inverse modelling; e.g., development of active (lidar) and passive sensors for the estimation of column CO 2 from satellites; • Development of consistent climate-quality reanalysis products for all ECVs. 5. OCEANIC CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM Role of the Oceans in the Climate System The oceans play critical, but generally not obvious, roles in the fundamentally coupled oceanatmosphere-land Earth climate system. Perhaps the most obvious role is through sea level, which directly affects society at the coasts by displacement of human populations and by stressing coastal ecosystems. Less obviously, but very importantly, transport of heat from the Tropics toward the poles is a major factor in determining the surface temperature of many nations; east-west transport of water in the tropical Pacific controls the onset and evolution of El Nino events; transport along and under ice shelves may determine how rapidly they separate from land. The oceans hold about 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere, and their sediments thousands of times more. The oceans also vary on decadal time scales and will experience greater changes than will result from climate change over the same period. The upwelling zones of the oceans provide nutrients that support some of the most biologically productive zones of the planet, and there is growing evidence that oceanic physical and chemical changes strongly control ocean ecosystems and may affect them more in the decades ahead. Tracking the heat and carbon stored and the exchanges of heat, moisture, momentum and greenhouse gases with the atmosphere are vital for understanding and forecasting the evolution of climate variability and change. Observing changes in the biogeochemical system and in marine ecosystems is critical to projecting their future states, as well as the oceans’ ability to continue to provide food to vulnerable societies. Sea level is a critical variable for low-lying regions, and globally is driven by volume expansion or contraction due to changes in sub-surface ocean density, and by exchange of water between the oceans and other reservoirs, such as land-based ice and the atmosphere. Local sea-level changes can also be strongly influenced by regional and local circulation changes, by isostatic rebound from the last glaciation period, and by land-use changes. Sea-surface temperature is a critical variable for the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. In addition to the surface atmospheric variables, others of note include sea ice, sea-surface salinity, and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO 2 ). Ocean colour is used to indicate biological activity in particular. Ocean life is dependent on the biogeochemical status of the ocean, which is affected by changes in its physical state and circulation. Sea ice is important as an indicator of climate change as well as through its albedo feedback and its impact on polar ecosystems. Melting or forming sea ice affects salinity and hence density and ocean currents. Technology is developing rapidly to permit additional observations in coastal regions and for boundary currents, narrow straits and shallow regions (choke points where flow is limited), biogeochemical variables, primary productivity, and other ecosystem variables. Observing the Oceans The composite surface and sub-surface ocean observing networks, as described in the IP-04, include global monitoring of certain ECVs where this is feasible. Monitoring of other ECVs depends on observations from reference stations or sites, or, in the case of sub-surface ocean carbon, nutrients and tracers, repeat ship-based surveys. Very recently, there have been significant contributions to sub-surface ocean measurements, particularly in data-sparse areas near ice margins from animalmounted conductivity, temperature and depth (CTD) devices. The global ocean observing system put 73
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION I
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FOREWORD This 2010 Update of the Im
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6. TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE OBSERVING SY
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Implementation Plan for the Global
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GCOS Implementation Plan - WMO

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