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Important point<br />

The calculated number of large ruminants<br />

is the maximum number they<br />

can have if all the zones are managed<br />

with the maximum number of livestock<br />

unit. The income from the livestock is<br />

calculated with this number, so often<br />

the income is over-estimated.<br />

2.<br />

Engaging the discussion with<br />

the village land management<br />

committee<br />

The discussion with the members of the VLMC can be fed by<br />

the following indicators:<br />

1. Compare the number of labour force needed for the<br />

PLUP and the number of labour force in the village that<br />

is expected in 5 and 10 years (available population<br />

trend assessment). Often the number of labour force<br />

needed to implement the plan is higher than the number<br />

of labour force the village will have in 10 years:<br />

The aim of the next round of zoning is to make a more<br />

realistic plan by reducing the gap between these required<br />

and available labour force. Explanations about<br />

how the result is generated also force the villagers to<br />

think about the quality of the information they provided<br />

as input to the simulation (rotation period, number of<br />

labour force...).<br />

2. Look at the number of big livestock they can have with<br />

this plan, if it is lower than the number they have nowadays,<br />

warn them.<br />

3. On the top right of the sheet, look at the cell “Number<br />

of labour force who can be fed with the rice they grow<br />

under this land use plan”. Compare this number with<br />

the current labour force. Rice self-sufficiency cannot<br />

be reached under the simulated plan, then the cell appears<br />

coloured in orange, if not this one is green. Rice<br />

sufficiency may then be discussed with members of the<br />

VLMC.<br />

TOOLBOX 5 Scenario analyses with Excel spreadsheets<br />

63

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