Top Down Strategy and Large Cap Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...
Top Down Strategy and Large Cap Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...
Top Down Strategy and Large Cap Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...
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<strong>Stock</strong> Profiles: Charoen Pokph<strong>and</strong> Foods<br />
Regional Equity <strong>Strategy</strong> Q4 2007<br />
Income Statement (Btm)<br />
FY Dec 2005A 2006A 2007F 2008F<br />
Turnover 113,374 124,958 130,169 137,333<br />
Cost of Sales (94,485)(108,158) (114,289) (119,479)<br />
Gross Profit 18,889 16,800 15,881 17,853<br />
SGA<br />
(12,167) (14,510) (14,747) (15,145)<br />
Operating Profit 6,722 2,290 1,133 2,709<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Income 2,903 2,459 3,468 3,316<br />
Interest (Exp)/Inc (1,204) (1,873) (1,927) (1,970)<br />
Pre-Tax Profit 8,421 2,877 2,674 4,054<br />
Tax (1,593) (329) (588) (892)<br />
Minority (118) (37) (205) 0<br />
Net Profit 6,710 2,510 1,881 3,162<br />
Sales Growth % 23.5 10.2 4.2 5.5<br />
Net Profit Gr % 443.1 (62.6) (25.1) 68.1<br />
EBITDA Mgn % 5.1 9.8 5.9 6.8<br />
Opg Mgn % 1.3 5.9 1.8 0.9<br />
Balance Sheet (Btm)<br />
FY Dec 2005A 2006A 2007F 2008F<br />
Fixed assets 38,871 43,233 43,112 42,723<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r LT Assets 10,694 10,143 11,014 11,972<br />
Cash/ST Investments 2,535 1,727 2,098 2,267<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Current Assets 36,998 40,631 41,264 44,483<br />
Total Assets 89,098 95,735 97,487 101,445<br />
ST Debt 14,865 21,925 21,925 21,925<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Current Liabilities14,886 14,625 16,835 12,964<br />
LT Debt 15,558 16,505 14,317 20,794<br />
Minority Interests 724 542 542 542<br />
Shareholders' equity 43,065 42,138 43,869 45,220<br />
Total <strong>Cap</strong>ital 89,098 95,735 97,487 101,445<br />
Share <strong>Cap</strong>ital (m) 7,520 7,520 7,520 7,520<br />
Net cash/(debt) (30,555) (38,491) (38,122) (39,952)<br />
Working capital 9,782 5,808 4,601 11,860<br />
Net Gearing (%) 69.8 90.2 85.8 87.3<br />
Cash Flow Statements (Btm)<br />
FY Dec 2005A 2006A 2007F 2008F<br />
Net profit 6,747 2,510 1,881 3,162<br />
Depr & Amortization 3,200 3,740 4,122 4,388<br />
Associate income, MI (557) (688) (666) (958)<br />
Change in Working <strong>Cap</strong>(6,943) (3,984) (612) (2,613)<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Non-Cash 440 2,221 - -<br />
Operational CF 2,888 3,799 4,725 3,980<br />
<strong>Cap</strong>ex (6,394) (8,272) (4,000) (4,000)<br />
Investment (855) 407 - -<br />
Investment CF (7,249) (7,865) (4,000) (4,000)<br />
Net chg in Debt 672 5,050 2 2,000<br />
New <strong>Cap</strong>ital 7,259 - (0) -<br />
Dividend (2,968) (1,685) (150) (1,810)<br />
Financing CF 4,963 3,365 (149) 190<br />
Translation gain 72 (107) (205) -<br />
Net change in Cash 674 (809) 371 170<br />
Rates & Ratios<br />
FY Dec 2005A 2006A 2007F 2008F<br />
ROE (%) 17.9 5.8 4.3 7.0<br />
ROA (%) 8.4 2.7 1.9 3.2<br />
Net Margin (%) 6.0 2.0 1.4 2.3<br />
Dividend Cover (%) 187.7 183.7 200.0 200.0<br />
Interest Cover (%) 776.5 247.3 233.0 296.7<br />
Asset Turnover (%) 127.2 130.5 133.5 135.4<br />
Asset/Debt (x) 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4<br />
Gearing (%) 75.6 94.2 90.6 92.3<br />
Net Gearing (%) 69.8 90.2 85.8 87.3<br />
Debt/EBITDA (x) 3.0 5.5 4.6 4.0<br />
Debt/Mkt<strong>Cap</strong> (x) 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2<br />
<strong>Cap</strong>ex/Sales (x) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0<br />
EV (Btm) 65,216 73,152 72,783 74,614<br />
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.9 10.0 8.3 7.1<br />
Div Pay-Out (%) 53.3 54.4 50.0 50.0<br />
Valuation Graph : PE<br />
Price Relative to Index<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
1.5<br />
1.3<br />
1.1<br />
Charoen Pokph<strong>and</strong> Foods<br />
5<br />
0<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007<br />
0.9<br />
SET<br />
0.7<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007<br />
101
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