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Stock Profile: Dongfeng Motor
Regional Equity Strategy Q4 2007
Income Statement (RMBm)
FY Dec 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
Turnover 48,264 57,035 67,165 76,443
EBITDA 4,915 6,057 6,915 7,993
Depr/Amort (1,634) (1,980) (1,811) (1,828)
Opg Profit 3,281 4,077 5,104 6,165
Associates Inc 61 76 92 111
Interest (Exp)/Inc (411) (330) (368) (336)
Exceptionals - - - -
Pre-Tax Profit 2,679 3,823 4,828 5,939
Tax (428) (406) (873) (1,110)
Minority Interest (170) (308) (356) (435)
Net Profit 2,081 3,110 3,600 4,395
Sales Growth (%) 15.6 18.2 17.8 13.8
Net Profit Gr (%) 30.0 49.4 15.8 22.1
EBITDA Mgn (%) 10.2 10.6 10.3 10.5
Opg Mgn (%) 6.8 7.1 7.6 8.1
Tax Rate (%) 16.0 10.6 18.1 18.7
Cash Flow Statement (RMBm)
FY Dec 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
Pre-Tax Profit 2,679 3,823 4,828 5,939
Tax Paid (344) (597) (806) (1,033)
Depr/Amort 1,686 1,980 1,811 1,828
Chg in Wkg Cap 461 1,752 (777) 483
Othr Non-Cash 79 (76) (92) (111)
Operational CF 4,561 6,882 4,964 7,106
Capex (3,914) (3,240) (4,890) (4,890)
Assoc, MI, Invsmt (41) (460) (296) (343)
Investment CF (3,955) (3,700) (5,186) (5,233)
Net Chg in Debt (521) (1,108) (900) (600)
New Capital - - - -
Dividend (37) (453) (684) (872)
Financing CF (558) (1,561) (1,584) (1,472)
Chg in Cash 48 1,621 (1,807) 400
Chg in Net Cash 564 2,847 (771) 1,157
Valuation Graph: PE
Balance Sheet (RMBm)
FY Dec 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
Fixed Assets 15,571 16,841 19,810 22,786
Other LT Assets 4,042 4,488 4,892 5,323
Cash/ST Investments 8,227 9,966 8,296 8,853
Other Current Assets 16,273 18,796 19,240 23,907
Total Assets 44,113 50,091 52,238 60,869
ST Debt 5,921 4,900 4,300 3,900
Other Current Liab 18,254 22,768 22,622 27,959
LT Debt 2,087 2,000 1,700 1,500
Other LT Liab 1,029 851 933 1,028
Minority Interests 2,534 2,734 2,965 3,248
Shareholders' Equity 14,288 16,838 19,718 23,234
Total Capital 44,113 50,091 52,238 60,869
Share Capital (m) 8,616 8,616 8,616 8,616
Net Cash/(Debt) 219 3,066 2,296 3,453
Working Capital (1,981) (3,972) (3,382) (4,052)
Net Gearing (%) cash cash cash cash
Segmental Breakdown (RMBm)
FY Dec 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
Commercial vehicles 11,471 14,252 16,226 17,349
Passenger vehicles 27,014 31,049 37,122 43,365
Engines & other auto 8,949 10,739 12,672 14,446
parts
Corporate and others 830 996 1,145 1,283
48,264 57,035 67,165 76,443
Sales Volume ('000)
Commercial vehicles 256 322 370 399
Passenger vehicles 495 628 767 905
751 950 1,137 1,304
Price & Price Relative to Index
(x)
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
Dec-05 Jul-06 Feb-07 Sep-07
HK$
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Relative Index
300
250
200
150
100
1.0
50
Dec-05 Jul-06 Feb-07 Sep-07
Dongfeng Motor (LHS)
Relative HSI (RHS)
73