Top Down Strategy and Large Cap Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...
Top Down Strategy and Large Cap Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...
Top Down Strategy and Large Cap Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...
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<strong>Stock</strong> Profile: Bumiputra-Commerce<br />
Regional Equity <strong>Strategy</strong> Q4 2007<br />
Income Statement (RM m) Balance Sheet (RM m)<br />
FY Dec 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F FY Dec 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F<br />
Net Interest Income 3,658 3,873 3,879 3,970 Cash/Bank Balance 21,535 17,970 16,015 13,850<br />
Non-Interest Income 2,635 3,689 4,243 4,667 Government Securities 2,483 2,607 2,737 2,874<br />
Operating Income 6,393 7,681 8,264 8,808 Inter Bank Assets 4,857 5,343 5,877 6,465<br />
Operating Expenses (3,358) (3,526) (3,435) (3,607) Total Net Loans & Advs. 90,335 100,294 110,572 121,977<br />
Pre-provision Profit 3,035 4,155 4,828 5,200 Investment 26,916 28,399 31,609 35,045<br />
Provisions (1,069) (1,023) (830) (699) Associates 287 158 158 158<br />
Associates 36 0 0 0 Fixed Assets 1,144 1,103 1,125 1,148<br />
Exceptionals 0 630 0 0 Goodwill 5,031 5,031 5,031 5,031<br />
Pre-tax Profit 2,002 3,762 3,999 4,501 O<strong>the</strong>r Assets 7,019 7,583 8,727 10,080<br />
Taxation (393) (940) (1,000) (1,125) Total Assets 159,607 168,488 181,852 196,627<br />
Minority Interests (104) (118) (130) (143) Customer Deposits 104,569 115,026 125,378 136,662<br />
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Inter Bank Deposits 7,234 7,724 8,110 8,516<br />
Net Profit 1,504 2,703 2,869 3,233 Debts/Borrowings 11,566 11,566 11,566 11,566<br />
Net Profit bef Except 1,504 2,073 2,869 3,233 O<strong>the</strong>rs 23,549 18,484 19,316 20,232<br />
Minorities 605 723 853 996<br />
Shareholders' Funds 13,294 16,411 18,334 20,647<br />
Total Liab& S/H’s Funds 159,607 168,488 181,852 196,627<br />
Profitability & Efficiency Ratios (%) Financial Stability Measures (%)<br />
FY Dec 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F FY Dec 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F<br />
Margins, Costs &<br />
Balance Sheet Structure<br />
Yld. ffi On i Earnings Assets 6.54 5.91 5.66 5.51 Loan-to-Deposit Ratio 91.1 91.6 92.8 94.0<br />
Avg Cost Of Funds 3.64 3.31 3.29 3.28 Net Loans / Total Assets 56.6 59.5 60.8 62.0<br />
Spread 2.90 2.59 2.37 2.23 Investment / Total Assets 16.9 16.9 17.4 17.8<br />
Net Interest Margin 2.96 2.61 2.41 2.29 Cust . Dep./Int. Bear. Liab. 84.8 85.6 86.4 87.2<br />
Cost-to-Income Ratio 52.5 45.9 41.6 41.0 Interbank Dep / Int. Bear. 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4<br />
Employees ( Year End) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Asset Quality<br />
Effective Tax Rate 19.6 25.0 25.0 25.0 NPL / Total Gross Loans 8.9 8.0 7.6 7.0<br />
Business Mix NPL / Total Assets 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.6<br />
Net Int. Inc / Opg Inc. 57.2 50.4 46.9 45.1 <strong>Cap</strong>ital Strength<br />
Non-Int. Inc / Opg inc. 41.2 48.0 51.3 53.0 Total CAR 14.8 14.5 14.6 14.8<br />
Fee Inc / Opg Income 15.9 19.9 20.4 21.0 Tier-1 CAR 9.6 10.2 10.7 11.4<br />
Oth Non-Int Inc/Opg Inc 25.3 28.1 31.0 32.0 Growth<br />
Profitability Total Net Loans 31 11 10 10<br />
ROAE Pre Ex. 14.0 15.6 18.4 18.5 Customer Deposits 41 10 9 9<br />
ROAE 14.0 20.3 18.4 18.5<br />
ROA Pre Ex. 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.8<br />
ROA 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.8<br />
Valuation Graph : PE<br />
22.0<br />
20.0<br />
18.0<br />
16.0<br />
14.0<br />
12.0<br />
10.0<br />
Price & Price Relative to Index<br />
RM<br />
13.00<br />
11.00<br />
9.00<br />
7.00<br />
5.00<br />
Relative Index<br />
185<br />
165<br />
145<br />
125<br />
105<br />
8.0<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br />
Source: Company, <strong>DBS</strong> <strong>Vickers</strong><br />
3.00<br />
85<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br />
Bumiputra-Commerce (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)<br />
89
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