Top Down Strategy and Large Cap Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...

Strategy Overview: Asian Equity
Regional Equity Strategy Q4 2007
Fig. 53: Appendix: Combined Valuation Score
No. of SD
from Trend
Average
R 2 with 12-
month fwd
Performance
Forecast
12m-fwd
return
Valuation Measure 9/12/07
Long-term
Trend Avg
Long-term
Std. Dev.
Singapore 3506.09 4%
P/E 12.7 18.4 5.2 -1.1 8%
D/Y 2.3 2.1 0.5 -0.3 33% 15%
P/B 2.5 1.7 0.4 2.0 26% -23%
12m FWd PER 15.0 16.7 3.0 -0.6 14%
US Bond / Earnings Yield Ratio 0.6 1.0 0.4 -1.1 12%
US Bond / Dividend Yield Ratio 1.9 2.8 1.2 -0.7 21% 20%
Hong Kong 24310.14 -13%
P/E 14.7 15.5 3.8 -0.2 28% 14%
D/Y 2.4 3.0 0.6 1.1 48% -12%
P/B 2.7 1.6 0.3 3.8 50% -73%
12m FWd PER 18.2 14.6 2.8 1.3 21% 8%
US Bond / Earnings Yield Ratio 0.6 0.8 0.3 -0.7 28% 21%
US Bond / Dividend Yield Ratio 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 36% -9%
Malaysia 1285.94 30%
P/E 13.8 18.4 6.1 -0.7 11%
D/Y 3.5 2.4 0.8 -1.4 32% 35%
P/B 2.4 2.1 0.7 0.4 0%
12m FWd PER 14.9 16.4 4.1 -0.4 7%
US Bond / Earnings Yield Ratio 0.6 1.0 0.5 -0.8 0%
US Bond / Dividend Yield Ratio 1.3 2.7 1.4 -1.0 22% 24%
Thailand 802.00 3%
P/E 13.1 15.2 8.6 -0.2 0%
D/Y 3.6 2.5 1.1 -0.9 6%
P/B 2.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 25% 3%
12m FWd PER 11.2 20.6 14.4 -0.7 3%
US Bond / Earnings Yield Ratio 0.6 0.8 0.5 -0.5 1%
US Bond / Dividend Yield Ratio 1.2 3.0 2.5 -0.7 14%
Indonesia 2209.93 24%
P/E 20.4 16.2 5.6 0.7 8%
D/Y 2.5 2.1 0.9 -0.4 45% 27%
P/B 3.9 2.0 1.6 1.2 0%
12m FWd PER 13.1 12.8 8.4 0.0 0%
US Bond / Earnings Yield Ratio 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 14%
US Bond / Dividend Yield Ratio 1.8 3.1 12.0 -0.1 40% 21%
China 'H' 14450.48 -9%
P/E 23.5 12.0 3.6 3.2 7%
D/Y 1.5 2.7 1.1 1.1 0%
P/B 4.5 1.7 0.5 5.0 0%
12m FWd PER 19.0 12.6 4.9 1.3 32% -9%
US Bond / Earnings Yield Ratio 1.0 0.5 0.2 2.2 2%
US Bond / Dividend Yield Ratio 2.9 2.2 0.8 0.8 2%
Korea 1813.52 -40%
P/E 14.8 14.9 6.4 0.0 5%
D/Y 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.3 9%
P/B 1.9 1.2 0.3 2.6 20% -40%
12m FWd PER 12.1 11.3 4.0 0.2 0%
US Bond / Earnings Yield Ratio 0.7 0.8 0.5 -0.4 10%
US Bond / Dividend Yield Ratio 2.8 3.6 2.0 -0.4 15%
Taiwan 9018.12 20%
P/E 16.4 21.4 6.7 -0.7 23% 19%
D/Y 3.8 1.9 0.9 -2.0 10%
P/B 2.3 2.5 0.8 -0.3 14%
12m FWd PER 12.7 18.6 6.2 -1.0 5%
US Bond / Earnings Yield Ratio 0.7 1.2 0.5 -0.9 21% 20%
US Bond / Dividend Yield Ratio 1.2 3.8 2.1 -1.2 18%
India 15505.36 2%
P/E 19.8 17.9 7.3 0.3 27% 4%
D/Y 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.9 54% -15%
P/B 4.5 2.5 0.9 2.2 3%
12m FWd PER 18.2 13.3 3.0 1.6 15%
US Bond / Earnings Yield Ratio 0.9 1.0 0.6 -0.2 34% 17%
US Bond / Dividend Yield Ratio 4.1 4.3 2.8 -0.1 38% 12%
AXJ 627.56 3%
P/E 16.1 16.8 3.8 -0.2 29% 12%
D/Y 2.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 48% 8%
P/B 2.7 1.8 0.3 2.9 36% -42%
12m FWd PER 14.9 13.7 2.8 0.4 25% 9%
US Bond / Earnings Yield Ratio 0.7 0.9 0.4 -0.6 29% 19%
US Bond / Dividend Yield Ratio 2.1 2.7 1.0 -0.6 36% 20%
Shaded cells are selected valuation indicators which are back-tested to have better predictive power of 12-month
forward performance. Return forecasts are based on regresstion equations of standard deviations from long term
average against historical 12m forward return. Data starts from 1993 except India and China.
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