Top Down Strategy and Large Cap Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...
Top Down Strategy and Large Cap Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...
Top Down Strategy and Large Cap Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...
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<strong>Stock</strong> Profile: SembCorp Industries<br />
Regional Equity <strong>Strategy</strong> Q4 2007<br />
Income Statement (S$ m) Balance Sheet (S$ m)<br />
FY Dec 2005A 2006A 2007F 2008F FY Dec 2005A 2006A 2007F 2008F<br />
Turnover 7,409.2 8,107.1 8,114.8 9,291.6 Net Fixed Assets 2,627.4 2,534.5 2,811.7 3,088.9<br />
Cost of Goods Sold (6,769.6) (7,215.3) (7,100.5) (8,083.7) Invts in Assocs & JVs 726.4 740.9 823.2 975.5<br />
Gross Profit 639.6 891.8 1,014.4 1,207.9 O<strong>the</strong>r LT Assets 444.6 576.0 576.0 576.0<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Opg (Exp)/Inc (234.6) (526.1) (368.2) (445.9) Cash & ST Invts 1,231.3 1,185.6 714.5 823.8<br />
EBIT 405.0 365.7 646.1 762.0 O<strong>the</strong>r Current Assets 2,289.4 2,548.8 2,551.2 2,920.3<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Assets 7,319.1 7,585.8 7,476.6 8,384.5<br />
Associates & JV Inc 78.3 117.3 152.3 222.3<br />
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (19.0) (5.1) (2.7) (2.7) ST Debt 149.4 216.2 216.2 216.2<br />
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 43.3 671.0 0.0 0.0 O<strong>the</strong>r Current Liab 3,067.0 2,369.5 2,383.9 2,744.2<br />
Pre-tax Profit 507.6 1,148.9 795.7 981.6 LT Debt 908.7 1,096.2 1,096.2 1,096.2<br />
Tax (92.4) 10.9 (159.1) (201.2) O<strong>the</strong>r LT Liabilities 349.4 444.1 444.1 444.1<br />
Minority Interest (111.9) (130.0) (171.0) (234.0) Shareholder’s Equity 1,999.6 2,811.6 2,517.0 2,830.6<br />
Preference Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minority Interests 845.0 648.2 819.2 1,053.2<br />
Net Profit 303.3 1,029.8 465.6 546.4 Total <strong>Cap</strong>. & Liab. 7,319.1 7,585.8 7,476.6 8,384.5<br />
Net profit before Except. 278.5 379.6 465.6 546.4<br />
EBITDA 589.4 536.0 818.9 934.8 Non-Cash Wkg. <strong>Cap</strong> (777.6) 179.3 167.3 176.1<br />
Sales Gth (%) 24.7 9.4 0.1 14.5 Net Cash/(Debt) 173.2 (126.8) (597.9) (488.6)<br />
EBITDA Gth (%) 38.9 (9.1) 52.8 14.2<br />
EBIT Gth (%) 67.3 (9.7) 76.7 17.9<br />
Effective Tax Rate (%) 18.2 N/A 20.0 20.5<br />
Cash Flow Statement (S$m)<br />
Rates & Ratios<br />
FY Dec 2005A 2006A 2007F 2008F FY Dec 2005A 2006A 2007F 2008F<br />
Pre-Tax Profit 507.6 1,148.9 795.7 981.6 Gross Margin (%) 8.6 11.0 12.5 13.0<br />
Dep. & Amort. 184.4 170.3 172.8 172.8 EBITDA Margin (%) 8.0 6.6 10.1 10.1<br />
Tax Paid (45.0) (46.8) (146.8) (159.1) EBIT Margin (%) 5.5 4.5 8.0 8.2<br />
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (78.3) (117.3) (152.3) (222.3) Net Profit Margin (%) 4.1 12.7 5.7 5.9<br />
Non-Cash Wkg.<strong>Cap</strong>. 275.5 (999.0) (0.3) (50.9) ROAE (%) 15.3 42.8 17.5 20.4<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Operating CF (16.8) (242.3) 0.0 0.0 ROA (%) 6.8 7.1 11.0 12.8<br />
Net Operating CF 827.4 (86.2) 669.1 722.1 ROCE (%) 12.1 11.5 13.9 0.0<br />
<strong>Cap</strong>ital Exp.(net) (329.5) (451.5) (450.0) (450.0) Div Payout Ratio (%) 29.9 73.8 50.0 50.0<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Invts.(net) 121.8 439.9 0.0 0.0 Interest Cover (x) 21.3 71.7 239.3 282.2<br />
Invts in Assoc. & JV 16.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Debtors Turn (avg days) 68.8 59.5 57.1 53.5<br />
Div from Assoc & JV 75.7 97.8 70.0 70.0 Creditors Turn (avg days) 107.7 86.1 82.4 77.2<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Investing CF 15.6 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 Inventory Turn (avg days) 43.1 54.1 65.5 61.7<br />
Net Investing CF (99.8) 86.3 (380.0) (380.0) Current Ratio (x) 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3<br />
Div Paid (516.1) (423.3) (760.2) (232.8) Quick Ratio (x) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8<br />
Chg in Gross Debt (791.2) 343.3 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH 0.0 0.2 0.1<br />
<strong>Cap</strong>ital Issues (267.2) 71.1 0.0 0.0 <strong>Cap</strong>ex to Debt (%) 31.1 34.4 34.3 34.3<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Financing CF (21.8) (36.9) 0.0 0.0 N.Cash/(Debt)PS (S cts) 9.9 (7.3) (34.2) (28.0)<br />
Net Financing CF (1,596.3) (45.8) (760.2) (232.8) Opg CFPS (S cts) 31.0 52.3 38.3 44.3<br />
Net Cashflow (868.7) (45.7) (471.1) 109.4 Free CFPS (S cts) 28.0 (30.8) 12.5 15.6<br />
Valuation Graph : PE<br />
24.0<br />
22.0<br />
20.0<br />
18.0<br />
16.0<br />
14.0<br />
12.0<br />
10.0<br />
8.0<br />
6.0<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br />
Price & Price Relative to Index<br />
S$<br />
Relative Index<br />
237<br />
6.00<br />
217<br />
5.00<br />
197<br />
177<br />
4.00<br />
157<br />
3.00<br />
137<br />
117<br />
2.00<br />
97<br />
1.00<br />
77<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br />
SembCorp Industries (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)<br />
Source: Company, <strong>DBS</strong> <strong>Vickers</strong><br />
49