Monthly Bulletin July 2009 - Banque de France

More documents

Recommendations

Info

ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS Monetary and financial developments At the same time, deposits received from the rest of the world declined even more strongly than assets. As a result, the net external asset position, which is the counterpart of M3, recorded a monthly inflow of €55 billion. For the 12 months to May, an inflow of €78 billion was recorded for MFIs’ net external asset position, following an outflow of €26 billion in the 12 months to April (see Chart 6). To sum up, the May data confirm the decelerating dynamics of both M3 and loans, which are indicative of a decline in the underlying rate of monetary growth. The flow of loans to the non-financial private sector remained subdued, but was, by contrast with previous months, slightly positive after correcting for securitisation. To a large extent, the subdued lending probably reflects the sharp deterioration in economic activity, the ongoing moderation of house price dynamics and the fact that there is still a high degree of uncertainty concerning the economic outlook. MFIs continued to reduce the size of their balance sheets, with this deleveraging being effected through the shedding of external assets and claims on other MFIs. Chart 6 Counterparts of M3 (annual flows; EUR billions; adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects) credit to the private sector (1) credit to general government (2) net external assets (3) longer-term financial liabilities (excluding capital and reserves) (4) other counterparts (including capital and reserves) (5) M3 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 Source: ECB. Notes: M3 is shown for reference only (M3 = 1+2+3-4+5). Longer-term financial liabilities (excluding capital and reserves) are shown with an inverted sign, since they are liabilities of the MFI sector. 2.2 SECURITIES ISSUANCE Issuers continued to take advantage of declining fi nancing costs for market-based debt in the fi rst months of 2009. The annual growth rate of debt securities issued by euro area residents remained at very high levels in April 2009. Issuance by non-fi nancial corporations and the government sector contributed most to the increase in annual growth rates. The annual growth rate of issuance of quoted shares continued to increase moderately. DEBT SECURITIES The annual growth rate of debt securities issued by euro area residents stabilised at a high level in April 2009, reaching 12.1% compared with 12.0% in March (see Table 3). Compared with March 2009, the annual growth rate of short-term debt securities issued rose by 4.0 percentage points to 27.9% in April. By contrast, the annual growth rate of long-term debt securities issued moderated over the same period by 0.4 percentage point to 10.1% in April. Issuance of longer-term securities is split between securities issued at floating and fixed rates. After a period of strong net issuance of variable rate long-term securities at the end of 2008, market participants have again favoured the issuance of fixed rate long-term securities, for which the annual growth rate increased slightly further from 8.4% in March to 8.5% in April 2009. Fixed rate long-term securities account for 67% of the value of outstanding long-term debt securities. The annual rate of growth of floating rate long-term securities declined to 14.9% in April, down from 16.6% in March 2009. ECB Monthly Bulletin July 2009 21
Table 3 Securities issued by euro area residents Issuing sector Amount outstanding (EUR billions) Annual growth rates 1) 2009 April 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 March 2009 April Debt securities 13,798 6.9 7.3 7.8 10.7 12.0 12.1 MFIs 5,419 7.8 8.2 5.7 5.9 6.6 6.4 Non-monetary financial corporations 2,033 21.5 23.3 23.8 29.6 31.1 30.6 Non-financial corporations 728 5.9 4.1 5.0 7.7 8.9 9.9 General government 5,617 2.2 2.4 5.6 10.2 12.1 12.5 of which: Central government 5,267 2.3 2.4 5.8 10.5 12.4 12.6 Other general government 350 1.3 3.0 2.9 5.9 7.9 10.5 Quoted shares 3,435 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.7 MFIs 414 1.5 2.8 4.9 7.2 8.0 8.2 Non-monetary financial corporations 249 2.4 2.6 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.4 Non-financial corporations 2,772 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 Source: ECB. 1) For details, see the technical notes for Sections 4.3 and 4.4 of the “Euro area statistics” section. Short-term trends can be better captured with seasonally adjusted six-month annualised growth rates. The latter signal a slight moderation in the ongoing robust growth of overall debt securities issued, standing at 15.4% in April 2009. The decrease by 0.4 percentage point compared with the previous month was caused by a deceleration of debt issuance by the government sector (see Chart 7). For non-financial corporations, the annual growth rate of debt securities issued increased from 8.9% in March to 9.9% in April. Over the same period the six-month annualised growth rate of debt securities issued jumped from 12.8% to 16.2%, thus reaching levels last seen in the summer of 2003. Net issuance of non-financial corporations continued to be dominated by fixed rate long-term debt securities. Their annual growth rate increased to 19.9% in April 2009, compared with -0.7% for variable rate longterm debt securities and -14.4% for variable rate short-term debt securities in this month. Such a rapid pace for fixed rate long-term debt issuance may reflect substitution effects from bank loans to market-based debt financing in the context of declining credit spreads since the beginning of the year and constraints on funding via the banking system as reported for example in the bank lending survey for the euro area. Recent data point to a broader use of debt securities issuance across rating classes and sectors, notably for lower-rated investment-grade issuers and more cyclical sectors. Chart 7 Sectoral breakdown of debt securities issued by euro area residents (six-month annualised growth rates; seasonally adjusted) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 total monetary financial institutions non-monetary financial institutions non-financial corporations general government 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 As regards the financial sector, the annual growth rate of debt securities issued by MFIs remained broadly unchanged at 6.4% in 22 ECB Monthly Bulletin July 2009 -10 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: ECB. -10
Page 1 and 2: EN 0712009 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK MO
Page 3 and 4: © European Central Bank 2009 Addre
Page 5 and 6: ABBREVIATIONS COUNTRIES LU Luxembou
Page 7 and 8: Risks to the outlook for inflation
Page 10 and 11: ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
Page 64 and 65: ARTICLES THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT S
Page 66 and 67: others also take into account the r
Page 68 and 69: exceeds the market price, a capital
Page 70 and 71: 4 THE IMPACT ON GOVERNMENT BOND YIE
Page 72 and 73:
yield differential to Germany despi
Page 74 and 75:
5 IMPLICATIONS FOR FISCAL SUSTAINAB
Page 76 and 77:
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MONETARY POLI
Page 78 and 79:
to loans with shorter maturities to
Page 80 and 81:
Chart 2 Average daily reserve surpl
Page 82 and 83:
In pre-turmoil times, such allotmen
Page 84 and 85:
Chart 5 US dollars provided by the
Page 86 and 87:
in Chart 7, which shows that lendin
Page 88 and 89:
Chart A The EONIA, the euro interba
Page 90:
euro-denominated covered bonds issu
Page 93 and 94:
Table 1 Two-group rotation system (
Page 95 and 96:
for each governor; (ii) transparenc
Page 97 and 98:
Chart C The three-group rotation sy
Page 99 and 100:
7. The share of each national centr
Page 102:
EURO AREA STATISTICS ECB Monthly Bu
Page 105 and 106:
6.3 Change in debt S57 6.4 Quarterl
Page 107 and 108:
1 MONETARY POLICY STATISTICS 1.1 Co
Page 109 and 110:
1), 2) 1.3 Eurosystem monetary poli
Page 111 and 112:
2 MONEY, BANKING AND INVESTMENT FUN
Page 113 and 114:
2.3 Monetary statistics 1) (EUR bil
Page 115 and 116:
1), 2) 2.4 MFI loans, breakdown (EU
Page 117 and 118:
1), 2) 2.4 MFI loans, breakdown (EU
Page 119 and 120:
1), 2) 2.5 Deposits held with MFIs,
Page 121 and 122:
1), 2) 2.6 MFI holdings of securiti
Page 123 and 124:
2.8 Currency breakdown of selected
Page 125 and 126:
2.9 Aggregated balance sheet of eur
Page 127 and 128:
3 EURO AREA ACCOUNTS 3.1 Integrated
Page 129 and 130:
3.1 Integrated economic and financi
Page 131 and 132:
3.2 Euro area non-financial account
Page 133 and 134:
3.3 Households (EUR billions; four-
Page 135 and 136:
3.5 Insurance corporations and pens
Page 137 and 138:
4.2 Securities, other than shares,
Page 139 and 140:
4.3 Growth rates of securities, oth
Page 141 and 142:
4.4 Quoted shares issued by euro ar
Page 143 and 144:
4.5 MFI interest rates on euro-deno
Page 145 and 146:
4.6 Money market interest rates (pe
Page 147 and 148:
4.8 Stock market indices (index lev
Page 149 and 150:
5.1 HICP, other prices and costs (a
Page 151 and 152:
5.2 Output and demand 1. GDP and ex
Page 153 and 154:
5.2 Output and demand (annual perce
Page 155 and 156:
5.3 Labour markets 1) (annual perce
Page 157 and 158:
6.2 Debt 1) (as a percentage of GDP
Page 159 and 160:
6.4 Quarterly revenue, expenditure
Page 161 and 162:
7 EXTERNAL 7.1 Summary balance of p
Page 163 and 164:
7.2 Current and capital accounts (E
Page 165 and 166:
7.3 Financial account (EUR billions
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
7.5 Trade in goods 1. Values and vo
Page 173 and 174:
8 EXCHANGE 8.1 Effective exchange r
Page 175 and 176:
9 DEVELOPMENTS 9.1 In other EU Memb
Page 177 and 178:
LIST OF CHARTS C1 Monetary aggregat
Page 179 and 180:
Growth rates for intra-annual perio
Page 181 and 182:
k) l) a t = ⎛ ⎜ −1⎟×100
Page 184 and 185:
GENERAL NOTES The “Euro area stat
Page 186 and 187:
EURO AREA STATISTICS General notes
Page 188 and 189:
Page 190 and 191:
Page 192 and 193:
Page 194:
Page 197 and 198:
oth the marginal lending facility a
Page 200 and 201:
DOCUMENTS PUBLISHED BY THE EUROPEAN
Page 202 and 203:
DOCUMENTS PUBLISHED 89 “An analys
Page 204 and 205:
DOCUMENTS PUBLISHED “Euro area ba
Page 206 and 207:
GLOSSARY This glossary contains sel
Page 208 and 209:
GLOSSARY ERM II (exchange rate mech
Page 210 and 211:
GLOSSARY Investment funds (except m
Page 212:
GLOSSARY is determined on the basis
show all

Monthly Bulletin July 2009 - Banque de France

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?