Monthly Bulletin July 2009 - Banque de France

Over the past three months the euro has depreciated against the Czech koruna (5.9%), the Hungarian
forint (12%) and the Polish zloty (6.4%).
OTHER CURRENCIES
Between the end of March and mid-June 2009, some large swings notwithstanding, the euro
depreciated slightly against the Swiss franc. Since approximately the third week of June, however,
the euro has appreciated sharply. The strengthening of the euro reportedly stemmed from
interventions in the foreign exchange markets by the Swiss National Bank. On 1 July the euro
traded at around CHF 1.52, 0.6% higher than its end-of-March level but 4% lower than its average
in 2008. Between the end of March and 1 July, the euro weakened by 2.8% against the Canadian
dollar, while it depreciated sharply, by 9%, against the Australian dollar.
5.2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
The euro area current account defi cit reached €105.7 billion (or about 1.2% of GDP) in the year
to April 2009. However, looking at the most recent trade developments, the signifi cant contraction
observed since the deepening of the fi nancial crisis in September 2008 seems to have moderated
somewhat on the exports side.
TRADE AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT
In the year to April 2009, the euro area current account deficit reached a cumulative
€105.7 billion (working day and seasonally adjusted), corresponding to about 1.2% of GDP,
compared with a deficit of €13.4 billion for the
same period a year earlier. This was largely
driven by a shift from surplus to deficit in the
goods balance, while a decrease in the surplus
for services and an increase in the deficit for
income also played a role. The deterioration
in goods trade brought the deficit in the goods
balance to €11.8 billion in the year to April 2009,
compared with a surplus of €37.5 billion a year
earlier (see Chart 35).
Looking at the most recent trade developments,
the significant contraction observed since
the deepening of the financial crisis in
September 2008 seems to have moderated
somewhat on the exports side. In the
three-month period to April 2009, exports of
goods and services have declined in value terms
by 7.6%, compared with a fall of 10.7% in the
previous three-month period. This moderation
was entirely due to developments in goods
exports, whose decline over the three-month
period to April 2009 was equal to 8.3% – almost
3 percentage points less than the decline over
the previous three-month period. Meanwhile,
58 ECB
Monthly Bulletin
July 2009
Chart 35 The euro area current account and
trade balances
(EUR billions; monthly data; seasonally adjusted)
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
Source: ECB.
current account balance
(12-month cumulated data; left-hand scale)
trade balance
(12-month cumulated data; left-hand scale)
exports of goods and services
(3-month moving average; right-hand scale)
imports of goods and services
(3-month moving average; right-hand scale)
2005 2006 2007 2008
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100