East Asia and Western Pacific METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE

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211 In the final section, the paper concludes with some reflections and comments with regards to adopting satellite analysis into an overall forecast strategy. 2. MESOSCALE CLOUD SYSTEMS (3-9 APRIL 1989) 2.1 Synoptic Background Cloudy and rainy weather persisted over the coastal areas of southern China for about a week in the early part of April. In Hong Kong, significant rain started on 3 April and got progressively heavier. Rainfall over the 2-day period .of 7 - 8 April amounted to nearly 100 millimetres. The rain eased off on 9 April and the sky finally cleared during the night. Altogether, a total of about 125 millimetres of rainfall was recorded during the week. Fig. 1 is a collection of the daily 500-hPa streamline charts as analysed at 1200 UTC during the period 1 - 9 April 1989. The positions of the surface and 850-hPa troughs are also shown for easy reference. Initially, the surface trough stretched across central China with the 500-hPa jet located aloft over its eastern section. At the time, a well-organized westerly trough could also be analysed over western China at 500-hPa level. This trough subsequently broke down and the 500-hPa flow became dominated by minor waves. While the continuity of these waves was often hard to follow, the surface trough maintained a steady southward movement and the 500-hPa jet also became more active south of 25 deg N. The surface trough crossed the coast later on 4 April. It then degenerated into a relatively weak feature over the northern part of the South China Sea. The minor peak in precipitation in Hong Kong on 5 April (see Fig. 5) can probably be attributed to its passage. However, an explanation for the major rainy episode on 7 and 81 April is not so readily forthcoming. Meanwhile, the 850-hPa trough remained quasi-stationary over southern China. At 500-hPa level, there was no major trough and the wind field only reflected some ill-defined short waves. What looked suspicions, however, was the emergence of a semi-permanent jet core over the Yunnan highlands since 3 April. This jet subsequently made two eastward excursions - once to the coast of Guangxi on 5 April and once to the north of Guangxi on 7 April. Those were times when cloud and rain developments were particularly active over southwestern China. Ironically, it was not until a major westerly trough moving out over mainland China that clearance from the northwest occurred on the night of 9 April.
212 Fig. 1. Daily 1.200 UTC • 500-hPa streamline analysis for the period 1 - 9 April 1989 with the jet (winds exceeding 25 m s"" 1 ) highlighted in shaded areas and trough axes marked in thin dashed lines. Positions of surface trough (thick solid line) and 850-hPa trough {thick dashed line) are also shown alongside. JOSE HOE-
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UNIVERSITY OF HONG KOHG LlBEAEY
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International Conference on East As
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FOREWORD The International Conferen
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VHI LIST OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE PHO
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45 LIM, Hock National University of
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XIII INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZING COMMI
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XV! The mean heat sources over Asia
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XVIII , Jhe impact of urbanization
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XX The East Asia heavy rainfall num
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THE THERMAL STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIV
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THE COUPLING OF UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW
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Q \ ed atmospheric processes * 2. M
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2) DH Experiment The horizontal flo
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of the orography, establishing a na
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11 a o 12 21 36 4$ 60 fZ Pig.3. Nea
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14 OVERVIB/V CF MEI-YU RESEARCH IN
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16 Fig.l Climatological daily rainf
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18 showed a marked contrast between
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20 3. SWDPTiC ^mLYSIS WD DIA^DSTIC
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22 and Chang (27). It was also foun
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24 triggering mechanisms. In additi
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26 important mechanism for creating
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28 mature convections. Satellite pi
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30 States included 70 scientists an
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1-4 M-H C CO *+-« C CD 4-9 C o •
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34 19.Chen, G.T. J., "A study on sy
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36 complexes: 27-28 May 1981 case",
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38 On Temporal Variations of Low Le
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40 low-level flows of the Asian sum
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42 the northern part of the Pacific
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44 cycle is observed for the amplit
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46 SUMMER (6-85 : 12 2 M979 P:850 M
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Observed Structure and Propagation
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50 southeasterly current in the wes
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40°N 30°N 15°N Equator 90°E 105
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54 The pattern of arrows in Fig. 3
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56 Figure 5. Vertical cross-section
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58 TOE MEAN HEAT SOURCES OVER ASIAN
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60 over tost parts of India, Southe
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62 inctly different types. One is t
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64 60 70 too no 120 00
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Fig.2.The 7-month mean values of (a
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68 A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE ME
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70 Synoptic circulation patterns fo
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72 (iii) The mid-latitude westerlie
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74 and the temperate latitude weste
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76 O 1 - (b) Total I Rainf a" 4 0
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78 LONGITUDE TIME WINOCROS5 SECTION
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A simulation of Lee-Cyclogenesis ov
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82 implemented to the global model
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84 In all three experiments, a deep
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86 References: Ballish, A.B., 1980:
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93 1.2-a I2.S 120. 127,5 US. 11.5 7
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95 2. Climatology of East Asian mon
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97 850 MB WIND (U*. V) S. 0 30N i~^
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99 120 ISO ISO 210 2VJ 770 ISO 180
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Figure 6 (a) Time-longitude section
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103 Monsoon cyclones /-~N I Subtrop
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105 INFLUENCE OF VARIATIONS OF THE
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surface during the rainy period of
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located at the position of the firs
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egion of western Australia. These t
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115 Fig.^57 Characteristics of vari
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119 Some Dynamic Aspects of the Equ
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121 equatorial zonal plane. In this
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123 where N is nondimensional Newto
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125 moisture concentration graduall
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127 boundary layer frictional conve
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129 000 - 20 30 WAVELENGTH (10 3 KM
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131 CHINESE POLAR ORBITING METEOROL
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some middle and small receiving sta
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135 local meteorology units through
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140 The Mesoscale Monitoring System
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142 The weather radar network is co
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144 where V and L are in centimeter
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146 PRF: 80-2000 Hz Minimum detecta
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148 [UHF Doppler RadaT] ^Pibalk ' Z
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150 STRUCTURAL FEATURES OF A SQUALL
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152 25 2200L 16 MAY 0000 L 17 MAY X
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154 0*73 KN 0,73 KM TAMEX IOF2 00*1
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156 4.2 East-west Cross Section The
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158 KM -20 EAST OF TOGA -10 0043 28
Page 183 and 184: 160 Radar Observation of Precipitat
Page 185 and 186: 162 Fig. 2. A triple doppler networ
Page 187 and 188: 164 for this presentation Fig. 5a(0
Page 189 and 190: 166 near the northern tip of Taiwan
Page 191 and 192: 168 In order to understand the inte
Page 193 and 194: 170 REMOTE SENSING OF ATMOSPHERIC C
Page 195 and 196: 172 In the meantime, with the incre
Page 197 and 198: 174 method (scanning frequency) and
Page 199 and 200: 176 For sharp absorption lines, the
Page 201 and 202: 178 [10]* Sun Jinhui, Qiu Jinhuan e
Page 203 and 204: 180 COMPARISION OF RADAR ESTIMATES
Page 205 and 206: 182 of 29 %). The Ra/Rg and the rel
Page 207 and 208: 184 under 1) errors in estimating r
Page 209 and 210: 186 Table 1. Summary of Ra/Rg for t
Page 211 and 212: 188 FIGURE 3. CORRELATION COEFFICIE
Page 213 and 214: 190 DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATI
Page 215 and 216: 192 which are concerned about by th
Page 217 and 218: 194 fly on schedule, take off and l
Page 219 and 220: 196 and minus value. Fig. 4 is the
Page 221 and 222: 198 REFERENCES 1. Donald Turnbull e
Page 223 and 224: 200 evaporation, condensation, wind
Page 225 and 226: 202 control valve which permits amp
Page 227 and 228: 204 Table 1 Rainfall Records of a T
Page 229 and 230: 206 various rainfall intensity shou
Page 231 and 232: 208 c 400-- £ o "5 350 H — A —
Page 233: 210 IMPACT OF HOURLY S-VISSR SATELL
Page 237 and 238: I Fig. 2. GMS-3 IR picture taken at
Page 239 and 240: 216 110E 20 115E 30. 20" X J 4o*N'\
Page 241 and 242: 218 Fig. 7. Provisional best track
Page 243 and 244: 220 PREDICTABILITY OF LOW FREQUENCY
Page 245 and 246: 222 expressions that invoke the Mon
Page 247 and 248: 224 b) A low frequency mode experim
Page 249 and 250: 226 A CLOUD WAVE THEORY AND ITS APP
Page 251 and 252: 228 heating indicating a substantia
Page 253 and 254: 230 If N Fig. I, A schematic diagra
Page 255 and 256: 232 2. A Quasi-Diabatic Geostrophic
Page 257 and 258: 234 X can be q, £ c, v, or T. The
Page 259 and 260: 236 On the basis of the preceding d
Page 261 and 262: 238 west of the maximum cloud cover
Page 263 and 264: 240 NORMAL MODES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
Page 265 and 266: 242 (1983) pointed out that simulat
Page 267 and 268: 244 reach the top of model atmosphe
Page 269 and 270: 246 is not clear in the tropics. Th
Page 271 and 272: 248 Wang, J.-T., J.-W. Kim and W.L.
Page 273 and 274: 250 (a) 30°N-30°S (January) (b) 3
Page 275 and 276: 252 An Important element of the ear
Page 277 and 278: 254 IOCS I02S 3SN Fig. 1 A general
Page 279 and 280: 256 staion of LID (farmland in the
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Page 283 and 284: 260 The measurements of surface rad
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262 Secular trends in urban tempera
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264 LONGTERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT
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266 Using these data sources It has
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268 (3) a nearly static phase where
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270 greater rate of increasing mini
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272 consistent with accepted theory
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274 RECENT APPLICATIONS OF THE PENN
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276 upward motion (Fig. Ib) of air
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278 Stauffer and Warner (1987) used
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280 observed precipitation rates fo
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282 coupled model system show that
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284 Baroclinic Instability of Modif
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286 Eq (2.4) corresponds to the con
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288 conventional Eady waves, except
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290 perturbations in Mode I remains
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292 5: Summary And Remarks Two diff
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294 INFLUENCES OF OROGRAPHY ON FLOW
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296 (13) The next step is to determ
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298 where „ = 1 - R a = - R 2>x c
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300 — -~ 1, thus the above relati
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302 The vertical velocity at the to
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304 THE MIGEOPHYSICS OF A MEI-YU CA
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306 O.Qg-m" 3 , which is probably d
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308 snowflakes aggregation generate
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310 (a) TRP.CK - 2 (1652 0 - 1711 0
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312 1987 6/16 17QSSO U 0.9 C 2 = 1.
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314 2. Heavy Rainfall Upstream of a
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316 accumulated rainfall amount on
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318 Figures 11 and 12 demonstrate t
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320 DEGREE K IT ( M/S ) QC (G/KG) -
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322 270 290 310 330 350 370 POTJEMP
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324 A primitive equation model was
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326 had already been affected by so
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328 I .011 I 1...J/1 l\l l-L-l L I
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330 «'.. Fig. 11 Same as Fig. 9 ex
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332 Mathiar, M. B., 1983: A quasi-L
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334 Long (1985), the maximum occure
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336 February 1979. It clearly indic
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338 Jiang H. M. and Jeng H. N., "Nu
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TEMP.GRAD.(C/100KM3 1979/2/04/OOZ 1
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TKANS.C1R. 9 1979/2/04/OE2 •; J97
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344 however, the sharp decrease in
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346 00 " XD 3 b D 3 aD b dD = [ N.
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348 heights. The median diameter an
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350 going on within the melting lay
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352 TRFICK - I (HIS 0 - H31 0J PR0B
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354 MONTHLY AND SEASONAL FORECASTS
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356 In another experiment, the heat
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358 4. CONCLUSION The forecasting e
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360 TABLE 1. COMPARISONS OF THE COR
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362 Fig. 3. Map of the correlation
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364 THE TELECONNECTION OF EQUATORIA
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366 3-*-j-] dag grid % ^Showing eve
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368 oBE (6) fl(uP) , fl(vP) ... 0(w
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370 the major tidal components over
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372 one meter. Most of the water le
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374 and Technology Advisory Group,
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376 INTRODUCTION In 1%6, Bjerknes,
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378 THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITIES O
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380 current between 127° E—128°
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382 El Nino and Southern Oscillatio
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384 Fig.5. The ADCP measurements (s
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386 I. Introduction Climate is one
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388 specifically at the modeling an
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390 Even during the warm phase of t
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392 (iv) To investigate the morphol
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394 Change program under IGBP is a
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396 TABLE 1: PROCESSES TO BE STUDIE
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398 w / / / / / / / / /-"V / / Z Fi
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400 CHINA-JAPAN JOINT RESEARCH PROG
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402 eastward. In addition to mainta
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404 Processes of Hicroscale Air-Sea
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406 phase velocity; both ratios, th
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T i l l ! o I • GO 00 J Wind Velo
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410 Concluding Remarks In order to
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412 THE VARIATIONS OF THE SST IN TH
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414 maps, there is an extensive are
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416 Flg.1. Time series of the annua
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418 90 N 90 S|. . . 20E 20E Fig.3c.
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420 ON LABORATORY SIMULATION OF SEA
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422 EXPERIMENT: Only simple and eas
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424 With the ability to simulate co
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426 (5) Meroney, R.N., Cermak, J.E.
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428 Fig. 3 Composite Photograph of
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430 A detailed description of the m
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432 However, the schemes failed to
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434 REFERENCES Anderson, E. and A.
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436 Figure 2 Vertical structure of
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438 36 HOUR FORECAST MEAN SEA LEVEL
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440 al.,1984). In this paper, a gen
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442 where subscript x denotes u, v,
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444 AM AM PO- N3 A/i + N3' and NH--
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446 there is only a minor differenc
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448 Guo X.R.,Yan Z.H.,Zhang Y.L. an
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450 THE EAST ASIA HEAVY RAINFALL NU
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452 (described in section 2) carrie
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454 Fig. . 2. Validation of Tempera
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456 simulate the partly cloudy cond
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458 3.3 Nesting Run with 2 km Grids
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460 REFERENCES Bhumralker, C. M., 1
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462 The Impact of the Termination o
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464 and 45.8 km respectively, which
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466 relative to (P+O/2, they actual
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468 Chang, S. W., 1982: The ore-gra
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470 Table 3. 24-hour forecast error
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472 Initial Position Errors 1983-19
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474 A SPECTRAL MODEL FOR MEDIUM RAN
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476 where I p u = FC-
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478 given. This is treated separate
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480 predicted location is too far t
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482 Fig.2 Distribution of 24h preci
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484 LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF TAIWA
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486 monsoon in east Asia and for co
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488 unfortunately are not integral
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Figure 1. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR MAY
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492 TaUj.g_ji Multiple rnfjross i o
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494 THE NONLINEAR INTERACTION OF IN
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496 Burgers(l948) had put forward a
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498 From Eqs,(8), the necessary con
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500 In order to show quantitatively
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502 Multiple Equilibria Of a Therma
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504 For the two-level quasi-geostro
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506 The coefficients Z, T, H, and T
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508 just the stable Branch 7 for st
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510 REFERENCES Bolin, B., 1950: On
Page 535 and 536:
512 STATIONARY SOLUTIONS WITH TOPOG
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514 ANNTTAL CYCLE OF 2TTT Fig. 7 An
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516 CISK modes have narrow axes of
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518 about one to three weeks. Predi
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520 first one. In his work, the lon
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522 The works mentioned are qualita
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524 [12] Wang, S.-W., Adv. in Atmos
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526 processes that give rise to a d
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528 3 Local energetics analysis The
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530 dominant waves of a local mode
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532 slightly longer than the length
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534 tends to induce a westerly jet
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536 TYPHOON FORMATION AND DEVELOPME
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538 influence of the mean wind prof
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540 3. Steady-State Solutions The p
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542 of maximum wind (Fig 7 c). This
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544 (A) b- l.O.(B) b- 0.8.(C) b- 0.
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546 b= 1.0,C= 0.03,0 = 120., T = 50
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548 tropical cyclones. Then, Shapir
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550 fine equation (2) will be used
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552 4) Cumulus vertical flux of hea
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554 Fig. 4 Same as Fig, 1, but for
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556 n=800 bPa and r **1. Now it is
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558 RRFKRRNCF Challa, M., and R. T,
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560 The limited-area forecast syste
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562 Our study is to obtain and anal
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564 coarse grid (Fig. 5). The struc
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566 ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION Fig.
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569 AUTHOR INDEX ANTHES, Richard A.
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571 LIOU, Chi-Sann LIU, Cho-Teng LI
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East Asia and Western Pacific METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE

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