East Asia and Western Pacific METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE

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217 the west-northwest and swept across the islands of central Philippines and southern Luzon on 17 May 1989. After entering the South China Sea the following morning, it turned to a more northwestward course while its forward speed was reduced by half. Brenda continued to intensify during the process. It eventually attained typhoon strength on 19 May with maximum sustained winds near its centre at the time estimated to be about 120 km/h. It also accelerated slightly to a speed of about 18 km/h and at one stage seemed to be heading straight towards Hong Kong. However, Brenda turned slightly to the west-northwest on 20 May, skirting past at a distance of 130 km to the southwest. It finally made landfall during the night over the coastal areas of western Guangdong and dissipated rapidly over land in the morning. A video tape on the life history of Typhoon Brenda has been prepared for presentation using a special enhancement look-up table for tropical cyclones. By observing the changes in cold tops and banding features near its centre, forecasters can make reliable centre fixes and intensity assessment. The observational aspect was covered in detail in the video presentation. Discussion in this section will mainly concentrate on the operational problems confronting the forecasters on the morning of 19 May. The provisional best track of Brenda along with forecasts and warnings current at the time are shown in Fig. 7. JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, Guam) went for a basically northward track to eastern Guangdong. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting) opted for a gentle curve to the west-northwest in the general direction of western Guangdong. Between the two extremes were the prognoses by ROLAM and the analogue model. Both predicted a gentle curve to the north with landfall position in the vicinity of Hong Kong. In terms of consistency, ECMWF had been maintaining its scenario while JTWC had shifted from a recurving scenario to a track that was further and further to the west. Synoptically, there was a deep westerly trough moving out over eastern China which provided some justification to the JTWC forecast. However, ECMWF insisted that the trough would soon relax and a ridge would quickly re-establish to the north of Brenda. Therefore, it was a problem of assessing whether the westerly trough would be able to pick up Brenda and the early part of 19 May was the critical period if this should occur. Fig. 8 shows the visible GMS picture received that morning. The cloud band extending to Japan was associated with the westerly trough in question. It appeared to have linked up already with the outer cloud bands of Brenda. However, subsequent events as observed increasingly favoured those tracks which pointed to the west of Hong Kong. Firstly, clouds previously clearing southeastern China after the passage of the westerly trough had returned to the region - an indication that the circulation of Brenda became more dominant and the trough effect, if any, was on the decline. In fact, when the picture shown in Fig. 8 was taken, the first of Brenda 1 s outer rainbands had just reached Hong Kong, Secondly t Brenda intensified further and an eye appeared for a short time. Good banding features allowed a very reliable fix on Brenda's position on an hourly basis. It
218 Fig. 7. Provisional best track of Brenda (solid line) and forecast positions (as received in the morning of 19 May) by ECMWF, JTWC, ROLAM and the analogue model. 12-hourly positions of best tracks are designated by ' ", and forecast positions are given by "x". Adjacent 4-digit figures (DDZZ) give time of validity in day (DD) and hour (ZZ, in UTC). Fig. 8. GMS-3 VS picture taken at 7:31 a.m. on 19 May 1989.
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UNIVERSITY OF HONG KOHG LlBEAEY
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International Conference on East As
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FOREWORD The International Conferen
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VHI LIST OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE PHO
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45 LIM, Hock National University of
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XIII INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZING COMMI
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XV! The mean heat sources over Asia
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XVIII , Jhe impact of urbanization
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XX The East Asia heavy rainfall num
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THE THERMAL STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIV
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THE COUPLING OF UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW
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Q \ ed atmospheric processes * 2. M
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2) DH Experiment The horizontal flo
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of the orography, establishing a na
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11 a o 12 21 36 4$ 60 fZ Pig.3. Nea
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14 OVERVIB/V CF MEI-YU RESEARCH IN
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16 Fig.l Climatological daily rainf
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18 showed a marked contrast between
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20 3. SWDPTiC ^mLYSIS WD DIA^DSTIC
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22 and Chang (27). It was also foun
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24 triggering mechanisms. In additi
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26 important mechanism for creating
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28 mature convections. Satellite pi
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30 States included 70 scientists an
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1-4 M-H C CO *+-« C CD 4-9 C o •
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34 19.Chen, G.T. J., "A study on sy
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36 complexes: 27-28 May 1981 case",
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38 On Temporal Variations of Low Le
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40 low-level flows of the Asian sum
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42 the northern part of the Pacific
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44 cycle is observed for the amplit
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46 SUMMER (6-85 : 12 2 M979 P:850 M
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Observed Structure and Propagation
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50 southeasterly current in the wes
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40°N 30°N 15°N Equator 90°E 105
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54 The pattern of arrows in Fig. 3
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56 Figure 5. Vertical cross-section
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58 TOE MEAN HEAT SOURCES OVER ASIAN
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60 over tost parts of India, Southe
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62 inctly different types. One is t
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64 60 70 too no 120 00
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Fig.2.The 7-month mean values of (a
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68 A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE ME
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70 Synoptic circulation patterns fo
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72 (iii) The mid-latitude westerlie
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74 and the temperate latitude weste
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76 O 1 - (b) Total I Rainf a" 4 0
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78 LONGITUDE TIME WINOCROS5 SECTION
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A simulation of Lee-Cyclogenesis ov
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82 implemented to the global model
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84 In all three experiments, a deep
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86 References: Ballish, A.B., 1980:
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93 1.2-a I2.S 120. 127,5 US. 11.5 7
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95 2. Climatology of East Asian mon
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97 850 MB WIND (U*. V) S. 0 30N i~^
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99 120 ISO ISO 210 2VJ 770 ISO 180
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Figure 6 (a) Time-longitude section
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103 Monsoon cyclones /-~N I Subtrop
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105 INFLUENCE OF VARIATIONS OF THE
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surface during the rainy period of
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located at the position of the firs
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egion of western Australia. These t
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115 Fig.^57 Characteristics of vari
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119 Some Dynamic Aspects of the Equ
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121 equatorial zonal plane. In this
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123 where N is nondimensional Newto
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125 moisture concentration graduall
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127 boundary layer frictional conve
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129 000 - 20 30 WAVELENGTH (10 3 KM
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131 CHINESE POLAR ORBITING METEOROL
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some middle and small receiving sta
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135 local meteorology units through
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140 The Mesoscale Monitoring System
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142 The weather radar network is co
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144 where V and L are in centimeter
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146 PRF: 80-2000 Hz Minimum detecta
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148 [UHF Doppler RadaT] ^Pibalk ' Z
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150 STRUCTURAL FEATURES OF A SQUALL
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152 25 2200L 16 MAY 0000 L 17 MAY X
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154 0*73 KN 0,73 KM TAMEX IOF2 00*1
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156 4.2 East-west Cross Section The
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158 KM -20 EAST OF TOGA -10 0043 28
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160 Radar Observation of Precipitat
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162 Fig. 2. A triple doppler networ
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164 for this presentation Fig. 5a(0
Page 189 and 190: 166 near the northern tip of Taiwan
Page 191 and 192: 168 In order to understand the inte
Page 193 and 194: 170 REMOTE SENSING OF ATMOSPHERIC C
Page 195 and 196: 172 In the meantime, with the incre
Page 197 and 198: 174 method (scanning frequency) and
Page 199 and 200: 176 For sharp absorption lines, the
Page 201 and 202: 178 [10]* Sun Jinhui, Qiu Jinhuan e
Page 203 and 204: 180 COMPARISION OF RADAR ESTIMATES
Page 205 and 206: 182 of 29 %). The Ra/Rg and the rel
Page 207 and 208: 184 under 1) errors in estimating r
Page 209 and 210: 186 Table 1. Summary of Ra/Rg for t
Page 211 and 212: 188 FIGURE 3. CORRELATION COEFFICIE
Page 213 and 214: 190 DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATI
Page 215 and 216: 192 which are concerned about by th
Page 217 and 218: 194 fly on schedule, take off and l
Page 219 and 220: 196 and minus value. Fig. 4 is the
Page 221 and 222: 198 REFERENCES 1. Donald Turnbull e
Page 223 and 224: 200 evaporation, condensation, wind
Page 225 and 226: 202 control valve which permits amp
Page 227 and 228: 204 Table 1 Rainfall Records of a T
Page 229 and 230: 206 various rainfall intensity shou
Page 231 and 232: 208 c 400-- £ o "5 350 H — A —
Page 233 and 234: 210 IMPACT OF HOURLY S-VISSR SATELL
Page 235 and 236: 212 Fig. 1. Daily 1.200 UTC • 500
Page 237 and 238: I Fig. 2. GMS-3 IR picture taken at
Page 239: 216 110E 20 115E 30. 20" X J 4o*N'\
Page 243 and 244: 220 PREDICTABILITY OF LOW FREQUENCY
Page 245 and 246: 222 expressions that invoke the Mon
Page 247 and 248: 224 b) A low frequency mode experim
Page 249 and 250: 226 A CLOUD WAVE THEORY AND ITS APP
Page 251 and 252: 228 heating indicating a substantia
Page 253 and 254: 230 If N Fig. I, A schematic diagra
Page 255 and 256: 232 2. A Quasi-Diabatic Geostrophic
Page 257 and 258: 234 X can be q, £ c, v, or T. The
Page 259 and 260: 236 On the basis of the preceding d
Page 261 and 262: 238 west of the maximum cloud cover
Page 263 and 264: 240 NORMAL MODES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
Page 265 and 266: 242 (1983) pointed out that simulat
Page 267 and 268: 244 reach the top of model atmosphe
Page 269 and 270: 246 is not clear in the tropics. Th
Page 271 and 272: 248 Wang, J.-T., J.-W. Kim and W.L.
Page 273 and 274: 250 (a) 30°N-30°S (January) (b) 3
Page 275 and 276: 252 An Important element of the ear
Page 277 and 278: 254 IOCS I02S 3SN Fig. 1 A general
Page 279 and 280: 256 staion of LID (farmland in the
Page 281 and 282: 258 start from October 1990 and end
Page 283 and 284: 260 The measurements of surface rad
Page 285 and 286: 262 Secular trends in urban tempera
Page 287 and 288: 264 LONGTERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT
Page 289 and 290: 266 Using these data sources It has
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268 (3) a nearly static phase where
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270 greater rate of increasing mini
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272 consistent with accepted theory
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274 RECENT APPLICATIONS OF THE PENN
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276 upward motion (Fig. Ib) of air
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278 Stauffer and Warner (1987) used
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280 observed precipitation rates fo
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282 coupled model system show that
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284 Baroclinic Instability of Modif
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286 Eq (2.4) corresponds to the con
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288 conventional Eady waves, except
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290 perturbations in Mode I remains
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292 5: Summary And Remarks Two diff
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294 INFLUENCES OF OROGRAPHY ON FLOW
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296 (13) The next step is to determ
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298 where „ = 1 - R a = - R 2>x c
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300 — -~ 1, thus the above relati
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302 The vertical velocity at the to
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304 THE MIGEOPHYSICS OF A MEI-YU CA
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306 O.Qg-m" 3 , which is probably d
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308 snowflakes aggregation generate
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310 (a) TRP.CK - 2 (1652 0 - 1711 0
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312 1987 6/16 17QSSO U 0.9 C 2 = 1.
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314 2. Heavy Rainfall Upstream of a
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316 accumulated rainfall amount on
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318 Figures 11 and 12 demonstrate t
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320 DEGREE K IT ( M/S ) QC (G/KG) -
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322 270 290 310 330 350 370 POTJEMP
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324 A primitive equation model was
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326 had already been affected by so
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328 I .011 I 1...J/1 l\l l-L-l L I
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330 «'.. Fig. 11 Same as Fig. 9 ex
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332 Mathiar, M. B., 1983: A quasi-L
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334 Long (1985), the maximum occure
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336 February 1979. It clearly indic
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338 Jiang H. M. and Jeng H. N., "Nu
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TEMP.GRAD.(C/100KM3 1979/2/04/OOZ 1
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TKANS.C1R. 9 1979/2/04/OE2 •; J97
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344 however, the sharp decrease in
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346 00 " XD 3 b D 3 aD b dD = [ N.
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348 heights. The median diameter an
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350 going on within the melting lay
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352 TRFICK - I (HIS 0 - H31 0J PR0B
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354 MONTHLY AND SEASONAL FORECASTS
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356 In another experiment, the heat
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358 4. CONCLUSION The forecasting e
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360 TABLE 1. COMPARISONS OF THE COR
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362 Fig. 3. Map of the correlation
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364 THE TELECONNECTION OF EQUATORIA
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366 3-*-j-] dag grid % ^Showing eve
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368 oBE (6) fl(uP) , fl(vP) ... 0(w
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370 the major tidal components over
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372 one meter. Most of the water le
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374 and Technology Advisory Group,
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376 INTRODUCTION In 1%6, Bjerknes,
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378 THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITIES O
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380 current between 127° E—128°
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382 El Nino and Southern Oscillatio
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384 Fig.5. The ADCP measurements (s
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386 I. Introduction Climate is one
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388 specifically at the modeling an
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390 Even during the warm phase of t
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392 (iv) To investigate the morphol
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394 Change program under IGBP is a
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396 TABLE 1: PROCESSES TO BE STUDIE
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398 w / / / / / / / / /-"V / / Z Fi
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400 CHINA-JAPAN JOINT RESEARCH PROG
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402 eastward. In addition to mainta
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404 Processes of Hicroscale Air-Sea
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406 phase velocity; both ratios, th
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T i l l ! o I • GO 00 J Wind Velo
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410 Concluding Remarks In order to
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412 THE VARIATIONS OF THE SST IN TH
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414 maps, there is an extensive are
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416 Flg.1. Time series of the annua
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418 90 N 90 S|. . . 20E 20E Fig.3c.
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420 ON LABORATORY SIMULATION OF SEA
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422 EXPERIMENT: Only simple and eas
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424 With the ability to simulate co
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426 (5) Meroney, R.N., Cermak, J.E.
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428 Fig. 3 Composite Photograph of
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430 A detailed description of the m
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432 However, the schemes failed to
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434 REFERENCES Anderson, E. and A.
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436 Figure 2 Vertical structure of
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438 36 HOUR FORECAST MEAN SEA LEVEL
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440 al.,1984). In this paper, a gen
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442 where subscript x denotes u, v,
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444 AM AM PO- N3 A/i + N3' and NH--
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446 there is only a minor differenc
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448 Guo X.R.,Yan Z.H.,Zhang Y.L. an
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450 THE EAST ASIA HEAVY RAINFALL NU
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452 (described in section 2) carrie
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454 Fig. . 2. Validation of Tempera
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456 simulate the partly cloudy cond
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458 3.3 Nesting Run with 2 km Grids
Page 483 and 484:
460 REFERENCES Bhumralker, C. M., 1
Page 485 and 486:
462 The Impact of the Termination o
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464 and 45.8 km respectively, which
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466 relative to (P+O/2, they actual
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468 Chang, S. W., 1982: The ore-gra
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470 Table 3. 24-hour forecast error
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472 Initial Position Errors 1983-19
Page 497 and 498:
474 A SPECTRAL MODEL FOR MEDIUM RAN
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476 where I p u = FC-
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478 given. This is treated separate
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480 predicted location is too far t
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482 Fig.2 Distribution of 24h preci
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484 LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF TAIWA
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486 monsoon in east Asia and for co
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488 unfortunately are not integral
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Figure 1. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR MAY
Page 515 and 516:
492 TaUj.g_ji Multiple rnfjross i o
Page 517 and 518:
494 THE NONLINEAR INTERACTION OF IN
Page 519 and 520:
496 Burgers(l948) had put forward a
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498 From Eqs,(8), the necessary con
Page 523 and 524:
500 In order to show quantitatively
Page 525 and 526:
502 Multiple Equilibria Of a Therma
Page 527 and 528:
504 For the two-level quasi-geostro
Page 529 and 530:
506 The coefficients Z, T, H, and T
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508 just the stable Branch 7 for st
Page 533 and 534:
510 REFERENCES Bolin, B., 1950: On
Page 535 and 536:
512 STATIONARY SOLUTIONS WITH TOPOG
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514 ANNTTAL CYCLE OF 2TTT Fig. 7 An
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516 CISK modes have narrow axes of
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518 about one to three weeks. Predi
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520 first one. In his work, the lon
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522 The works mentioned are qualita
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524 [12] Wang, S.-W., Adv. in Atmos
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526 processes that give rise to a d
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528 3 Local energetics analysis The
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530 dominant waves of a local mode
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532 slightly longer than the length
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534 tends to induce a westerly jet
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536 TYPHOON FORMATION AND DEVELOPME
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538 influence of the mean wind prof
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540 3. Steady-State Solutions The p
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542 of maximum wind (Fig 7 c). This
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544 (A) b- l.O.(B) b- 0.8.(C) b- 0.
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546 b= 1.0,C= 0.03,0 = 120., T = 50
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548 tropical cyclones. Then, Shapir
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550 fine equation (2) will be used
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552 4) Cumulus vertical flux of hea
Page 577 and 578:
554 Fig. 4 Same as Fig, 1, but for
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556 n=800 bPa and r **1. Now it is
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558 RRFKRRNCF Challa, M., and R. T,
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560 The limited-area forecast syste
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562 Our study is to obtain and anal
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564 coarse grid (Fig. 5). The struc
Page 589 and 590:
566 ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION Fig.
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569 AUTHOR INDEX ANTHES, Richard A.
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571 LIOU, Chi-Sann LIU, Cho-Teng LI
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